Studying Dynamic Change Probabilities and Their Role in Change Propagation

2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Long ◽  
Scott Ferguson
Keyword(s):  
Network Theory ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Change Propagation ◽  
Prior Literature ◽  
High Level ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fixed System ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Long-lived systems are likely to experience many independent modifications during their lifecycles. Prior literature provides tools for predicting how a change in a fixed system is likely to propagate, but these tools do not address change propagation across multiple, independent modifications. The phenomenon of a modification consuming excess, thereby increasing the likelihood of change propagation in future modifications, is studied in this work as dynamic change probabilities (DCP). This research builds on change propagation techniques, network theory, and excess to provide high-level guidance about how DCP may alter change propagation within a system over time. A sample of existing and synthetic systems are explored, as we show that the rate of change likelihood increase following a modification depends on the number of components (nodes), the dependencies between components (edges), and initial change propagation probability values (edge weights). Results also show that excess placement in specific components, and the presence of system hubs (high-degree components), can mitigate the impact of excess consumption when multiple system modifications are made over time.

Exploring System Architecture Attributes and Dynamic Change Propagation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Long ◽  
Scott Ferguson
Keyword(s):  
Network Theory ◽  
System Architecture ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Change Propagation ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Synthetic Test ◽  
System Requirements ◽  
Propagation Network ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Selection Of

Long-lived systems will experience many successive changes during their lifecycle as they are adapted to meet new system requirements. Existing change propagation tools predict how changes to a system’s design at a fixed point in its life are likely to spread, but have not been extended to consider a series of successive modifications where the change probabilities update. This change in propagation probabilities in response to successive changes is introduced as Dynamic Change Propagation (DCP). This paper integrates research from change propagation, network theory, and excess to achieve the following objectives: 1) describe how a DCP model predicts system propagation change trajectories, 2) use a new synthetic test case generator to correlate network parameters like degree distribution with DCP, and 3) determine the correlations between a measure of DCP and a selection of existing change propagation metrics. Results indicate that DCP is limited by reducing the number of dependencies between components (affirming the usefulness of adding modularity to a system) and including high degree component ‘hubs’ between components.

scholarly journals RS and GIS Supported Urban LULC and UHI Change Simulation and Assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Pei Liu ◽  
Shoujun Jia ◽  
Ruimei Han ◽  
Yuanping Liu ◽  
Xiaofeng Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Thermal Environment ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Urban Sustainability ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact

Rapid urbanization has become a major urban sustainability concern due to environmental impacts, such as the development of urban heat island (UHI) and the reduction of urban security states. To date, most research on urban sustainability development has focused on dynamic change monitoring or UHI state characterization, while there is little literature on UHI change analysis. In addition, there has been little research on the impact of land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) on UHI, especially simulates future trends of LULCCs, UHI change, and dynamic relationship of LULCCs and UHI. The purpose of this research is to design a remote sensing-based framework that investigates and analyzes how the LULCCs in the process of urbanization affected thermal environment. In order to assess and predict the impact of LULCCs on urban heat environment, multitemporal remotely sensed data from 1986 to 2016 were selected as source data, and Geographic Information System (GIS) methods such as the CA-Markov model were employed to construct the proposed framework. The results showed that (1) there has been a substantial strength of urban expansion during the 40-year study period, (2) the farthest distance urban center of gravity moves from north-northeast (NEE) to west-southwest (WSW) direction, (3) the dominate temperature was middle level, sub-high level, and high level in the research area, (4) there was a higher changing frequency and range from east to west, and (5) there was a significant negative correlation between land surface temperature and vegetation and significant positive correlation between temperature and human settlement.

scholarly journals A Decade Later: The Impact of Empowerment on Women in Sitio Alitaptap, Province of Nueva Ecija, Philippines and Its Effect on Peace and Social Order

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Jacinto Yango Bustamante
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Positive Result ◽  
Program Implementation ◽  
Social Order ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Local Officials ◽  
High Level ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of empowerment on women after a decade of its rigid campaign in the province of Nueva Ecija, Philippines and its effect on peace and social order as perceived by the residents of sitio Alitaptap, Nueva Ecija. The researcher utilized a descriptive research design using a self-devised questionnaire to gather information. The findings revealed that the respondents have a high level of conformity to the actions of local government unit to empower women. As to the impact of empowerment on women, the respondents agreed to the positive result of the action taken by the local government unit. The study showed that empowering women brought peace and social order and the quality of program implementation in the place caused high degree of effectiveness in the performance of duty of local officials. However, there are some things that are not clear to the respondents as there are some questions where respondents stand neutral. The study revealed that not only will women gain knowledge of their rights on the action of the local government but will also teach men how to respect women. The only negative result of the study is the threat that women may use their rights to prejudice men that may result in social disorder.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Handling Unit on Logistics Costs: The Case of a Portuguese Food Retail Supply Chain

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 835-850
Author(s):  
Ana Luísa Ferreira Andrade Ramos ◽  
José António Vasconcelos Ferreira ◽  
Sara Rego da Costa
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Distribution System ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Food Retail ◽  
Distribution Centre ◽  
Quantitative Results ◽  
High Level ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact

In the food retail industry, the agility and responsiveness of the supply chain are crucial because demand is volatile and short lead times are mandatory. The logistics performance is of critical importance to provide a high level of efficiency in operations and a high degree of customer satisfaction. The Handling Unit, or the minimum quantity to send to retail stores (the ship-pack), is a factor of considerable influence on logistics efficiency and costs. In this work, it was developed a simple analytical cost model for a Portuguese food retail two-tier distribution system (distribution centre and store) to support the evaluation of the conversion of the handling unit to half-pallet. The results of the model, considering a pilot study with three scenarios, suggest an economic gain of approximately 75% (comparatively to the current situation) in logistics costs. These quantitative results were decisive to guide decision-makers.

scholarly journals The creative cliff illusion

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (33) ◽  
pp. 19830-19836
Author(s):  
Brian J. Lucas ◽  
Loran F. Nordgren
Keyword(s):  
Time Course ◽  
Effect Study ◽  
Task Persistence ◽  
Creative Performance ◽  
Performance Study ◽  
Prior Literature ◽  
Creative Experience ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Across eight studies, we tested whether people understand the time course of their own creativity. Prior literature finds that creativity tends to improve across an ideation session. Here we compared people’s beliefs against their actual creative performance. Consistent with prior research, we found that people’s creativity, on aggregate, remained constant or improved across an ideation session. However, people’s beliefs did not match this reality. We consistently found that people expected their creativity to decline over time. We refer to this misprediction as the creative cliff illusion. Study 1 found initial evidence of this effect across an ideation task. We found further evidence in a sample with high domain-relevant knowledge (study 2), when creativity judgments were elicited retrospectively (study 3), and across a multiday study (study 5). We theorized the effect occurs because people mistakenly associate creativity (the novelty and usefulness of an idea) with idea production (the ability to generate an idea). Study 4 found evidence consistent with this mechanism. The creative cliff illusion was attenuated among those with high levels of everyday creative experience (study 6) and after a knowledge intervention that increased awareness of the effect (study 7). Demonstrating the impact of creativity beliefs on downstream performance, study 8 found that declining creativity beliefs negatively influenced task persistence and creative performance, suggesting that people underinvest in ideation. This research contributes to work on prediction in the creative domain and demonstrates the importance of understanding creativity beliefs for predicting creative performance.

scholarly journals INTERVENTIONS IN SOCIAL NETWORKS: IMPACT ON MOOD AND NETWORK DYNAMICS

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (03n04) ◽  
pp. 1550016 ◽  
Author(s):  
DANICA VUKADINOVIĆ GREETHAM ◽  
ABHIJIT SENGUPTA ◽  
ROBERT HURLING ◽  
JOY WILKINSON
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Negative Affect ◽  
Positive Affect ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Centrality Measures ◽  
Positive And Negative Affect ◽  
Friendship Networks ◽  
Gratitude Intervention ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact

Results from two studies on longitudinal friendship networks are presented, exploring the impact of a gratitude intervention on positive and negative affect dynamics in a social network. The gratitude intervention had been previously shown to increase positive affect and decrease negative affect in an individual but dynamic group effects have not been considered. In the first study, the intervention was administered to the whole network. In the second study, two social networks are considered and in each only a subset of individuals, initially low/high in negative affect respectively received the intervention as "agents of change". Data was analyzed using stochastic actor-based modeling techniques to identify resulting network changes, impact on positive and negative affect and potential contagion of mood within the group. The first study found a group level increase in positive and a decrease in negative affect. Homophily was detected with regard to positive and negative affect but no evidence of contagion was found. The network itself became more volatile along with a fall in rate of change of negative affect. Centrality measures indicated that the best broadcasters were the individuals with the least negative affect levels at the beginning of the study. In the second study, the positive and negative affect levels for the whole group depended on the initial levels of negative affect of the intervention recipients. There was evidence of positive affect contagion in the group where intervention recipients had low initial level of negative affect and contagion in negative affect for the group where recipients had initially high level of negative affect.

Land-Use/Land-Cover Changes and Their Influence on Urban Thermal Environment in Zhengzhou City During the Period of 1986 to 2026

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei Liu ◽  
Ruimei Han ◽  
Leiku Yang
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Thermal Environment ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Urban Sustainability ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact

<p>Rapid urbanization has become a major urban sustainability concern due to environmental impacts, such as development of urban heat island (UHI) and the reduction of urban security states. To date, most research on urban sustainability development has focus on dynamic change monitoring or UHI state characterization. While there is little literature on UHI change analysis. In addition, there has been little research on the impact of land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) on UHI, especially simulates future trend of LULCCs, UHI change, and dynamic relationship of LULCCs and UHI. The purpose of this research is to design a remote sensing based framework that investigates and analysis that how the LULCCs in the process of urbanization affected thermal environment. In order to assesses and predicts impact of LULCCs on urban heat environment, multi-temporal remotely sensed data from 1986 to 2016 were selected as source data, and Geographic Information System (GIS) methods such as CA-Markov model were employed to construct the proposed framework. The results shown that (1) there has been a substantial strength of urban expansion during the 40 years study period; (2) the most far distance urban center of gravity movement from north-northeast (NEE) to west-southwest (WSW) direction; (3) the dominate temperature were middle level, sub-high level and high level in the research area; (4) there was a higher changing frequency and range from east to west; (5) there was significant negative correlation between land surface temperature and vegetation, and significant positive correlation between temperature and human settlement.</p>

scholarly journals Analytical study of the impact of Customer knowledge management on improving the performance of Algerian economic institutions Case Study: Ooredoo Communications

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Abd Elmadjid Chabani ◽  
◽  
Bin Khalifa Ahmad ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Company Performance ◽  
Customer Knowledge ◽  
Management Philosophy ◽  
Customer Knowledge Management ◽  
Degree Of Stability ◽  
High Level ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Telecommunications Company

The study was designed to test the relationship between customer knowledge management and company performance, and then to demonstrate the impact of customer knowledge management philosophy on improving the performance of the company (Ooredoo). The study was conducted using two complementary methods: the first method was a documentary (descriptive) and the performance of the company. The second method was an analytical survey by means of an exploratory study through the questionnaire as a data collection tool. The truth coefficient was measured as a high degree of stability was achieved for a sample of 115 individuals. The data was analyzed using the statistical package (SPSS.V19) and counting tools Vision descriptive. One of the findings is that the National Telecommunications Company of Algeria (Ooredoo) has an average level of customer knowledge management and a high level of performance compared to its competitors. There is a statistically significant impact of customer knowledge management on the performance of the National Telecommunications Company Algeria (Ooredoo). This is based on the dimensions adopted in the study model.

Cyberbullying: An Empirical Analysis of Factors Related to Anonymity and Reduced Social Cue

2013 ◽  
Vol 311 ◽  
pp. 533-538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Pang Wu ◽  
Chung Chang Lien
Keyword(s):  
Middle School ◽  
Middle School Students ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Social Cues ◽  
School Students ◽  
Social Cue ◽  
High Level ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Impact

This study exams the nature of adolescents’ experience of cyberbullying and determines independently the impact of anonymity and lack of social cues on cyberbullying behavior among middle school students. The preliminary analysis of a survey data collected from middle school students in Taiwan. The results of this study provide support for our hypotheses and explore the effects of anonymity and reduced social cue on cyberbullying behavior of middle school students. This implies that those with high level of anonymity and reduced social cue lead to create high degree of cyberbullying behavior.

Maturity of Judgment and Perceptual Deterrence

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (11) ◽  
pp. 1762-1781 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heejin Lee ◽  
Christopher J. Sullivan ◽  
J. C. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Individual Differences ◽  
Juvenile Offenders ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Perceptual Deterrence ◽  
Pathways To Desistance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Recent deterrence literature has found that the degree to which sanction threats are perceived to influence subsequent offending differs within individuals and between individuals over time. This study examines whether three psychosocial aspects (temperance, perspective, responsibility) relevant to the maturity of judgment predict within-individual and between-individual differences in levels of perceptual deterrence. Random effects regression models with fixed effects (hybrid models) are used to estimate the impact of maturity of judgment on the perceived risks, costs, and benefits of crime among a sample of serious juvenile offenders from the Pathways to Desistance study over 7 years of development. The results support both within-person effects and between-person effects. More mature judgment ability is generally associated with the perception of greater risks, heavier costs of punishment, and fewer rewards of crime. The rate of change in perceptual deterrence by maturity of judgment varies between individuals. Implications of the findings are discussed.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document