Using Rio-Paris Flight 447 Crash to Assess Human Error and Failure Propagation Analysis Early in Design

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Irshad ◽  
H. Onan Demirel ◽  
Irem Y. Tumer ◽  
Guillaume Brat
Keyword(s):  
Human Error ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Human Errors ◽  
System Failures ◽  
Propagation Analysis ◽  
Failure Propagation ◽  
Complex Engineering ◽  
Component Failures ◽  
Complex Engineering System

Abstract While a majority of system vulnerabilities such as performance losses and accidents are attributed to human errors, a closer inspection would reveal that often times the accumulation of unforeseen events that include both component failures and human errors contribute to such system failures. Human error and functional failure reasoning (HEFFR) is a framework to identify potential human errors, functional failures, and their propagation paths early in design so that systems can be designed to be less prone to vulnerabilities. In this paper, the application of HEFFR within the complex engineering system domain is demonstrated through the modeling of the Air France 447 crash. Then, the failure prediction algorithm is validated by comparing the outputs from HEFFR and what happened in the actual crash. Also, two additional fault scenarios are executed within HEFFR and in a commercially available flight simulator separately, and the outcomes are compared as a supplementary validation.

Using Robust Design Techniques to Model the Effects of Multiple Decision Makers in a Design Process

1998 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt Hacker ◽  
Kemper Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Robust Design ◽  
Interaction Analysis ◽  
System Modeling ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Entire System ◽  
Multiple Decision Makers ◽  
Complex Engineering ◽  
Passenger Aircraft ◽  
Complex Engineering System

Abstract In this paper we introduce a methodology to reduce the effects of uncertainty in the design of a complex engineering system involving multiple decision makers. We focus on the uncertainty that is created when a disciplinary designer or design team must try and predict or model the behavior of other disciplinary subsystems. The design of a complex system is performed by many different designers and teams, each of which only have control over a small portion of the entire system. Modeling the interaction among these decision makers and reducing the uncertainty caused by the lack of global control is the focus of this paper. We use well developed concepts from the field of game theory to describe the interactions taking place, and concepts from robust design to reduce the effects of one decision-maker on another. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is also used to reduce the complexity of the interaction analysis while preserving behavior of the systems. The design of a passenger aircraft is used to illustrate the approach, and some encouraging results are discussed.

Quantifying the Combined Effects of Human Errors and Component Failures

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Irshad ◽  
Daniel Hulse ◽  
Onan Demirel ◽  
Irem Tumer ◽  
David Jensen
Keyword(s):  
Human Error ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Cost Models ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Human Errors ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Engineered Systems ◽  
Independent Effects ◽  
Component Failures

Abstract While a majority of accidents and malfunctions in complex engineered systems are attributed to human error, a closer inspection would reveal that such mishaps often emerge as a result of complex interactions between the human- and component-related vulnerabilities. To fully understand and mitigate potential risks, the effects of such interactions between component failures and human errors (in addition to their independent effects) need to be considered early. Specifically, to facilitate risk-based design, severity of such failures need to be quantified early in the design process to determine overall risk and prioritize the most important hazards. However, existing risk assessment methods either quantify the risk of component failures or human errors in isolation or are only applicable during later design stages. This work intends to overcome this limitation by introducing an expected cost model to the Human Error and Functional Failure Reasoning (HEFFR) framework to facilitate the quantification of the effects of human error and component failures acting in tandem. This approach will allow designers to assess the risk of hazards emerging from human- and component-related failures occurring in combination and identify worst-case fault scenarios. A coolant tank case study is used to demonstrate this approach. The results show that the proposed approach can help designers quantify the effects of human error and component failures acting alone and in tandem, identify and prioritize worst-case scenarios, and improve human-product interactions. However, the underlying likelihood and cost models are subject to uncertainties which may affect the assessments.

scholarly journals Locating Sensors in Complex Engineering Systems for Fault Isolation Using Population-Based Incremental Learning

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 310
Author(s):  
Jinxin Wang ◽  
Zhongwei Wang ◽  
Xiuzhen Ma ◽  
Guojin Feng ◽  
Chi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Directed Graph ◽  
Incremental Learning ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Fault Isolation ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Fault Diagnostics ◽  
Sensor Location ◽  
Full Life Cycle ◽  
Complex Engineering ◽  
Complex Engineering System

Fault diagnostics aims to locate the origin of an abnormity if it presents and therefore maximize the system performance during its full life-cycle. Many studies have been devoted to the feature extraction and isolation mechanisms of various faults. However, limited efforts have been spent on the optimization of sensor location in a complex engineering system, which is expected to be a critical step for the successful application of fault diagnostics. In this paper, a novel sensor location approach is proposed for the purpose of fault isolation using population-based incremental learning (PBIL). A directed graph is used to model the fault propagation of a complex engineering system. The multidimensional causal relationships of faults and symptoms were obtained via traversing the directed path in the directed graph. To locate the minimal quantity of sensors for desired fault isolatability, the problem of sensor location was firstly formulated as an optimization problem and then handled using PBIL. Two classical cases, including a diesel engine and a fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCCU), were taken as examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Results show that the proposed method can minimize the quantity of sensors while keeping the capacity of fault isolation unchanged.

scholarly journals AUTOMATION OF COMPLEX ENGINEERING SYSTEM LAYOUT SELECTION

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrei Markov ◽  
◽  
Galina Vinogradova ◽  
Aleksandr Denisenko ◽  
Aleksandr Khlebnikov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Engineering System ◽  
Complex Engineering ◽  
Complex Engineering System ◽  
System Layout

scholarly journals The Problems and Countermeasures in Construction Management

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Liu Hongwei
Keyword(s):  
Construction Management ◽  
Management System ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Construction Site ◽  
Construction Process ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Complex Engineering ◽  
Complex Engineering System ◽  
General Concern

Construction is a multi-type, multi-disciplinary and complex engineering system. In order to smoothly conduct construction process and to achieve the intended goal, it is necessary to carry out construction management in a scientific way. However, in the implementation of the system, there is often mismanagement which caused major safety accidents and the quality of construction has become a general concern. This paper analyzes some problems in the construction site, and proposed solutions to promote standardized law and safety measures for the construction management system.

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