scholarly journals Examining the Influence of Solar Panel Installers on Design Innovation and Market Penetration

2019 ◽  
Vol 141 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Sinitskaya ◽  
Kelley J. Gomez ◽  
Qifang Bao ◽  
Maria C. Yang ◽  
Erin F. MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Profit Maximization ◽  
Purchase Decisions ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Market Penetration ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Design Decisions ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Stakeholder Influence ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Strategy Versus

This work uses an agent-based model to examine how installers of photovoltaic (PV) panels influence panel design and the success of residential solar energy. It provides a novel approach to modeling intermediary stakeholder influence on product design, focusing on installer decisions instead of the typical foci of the final customer (homeowners) and the designer/manufacturer. Installers restrict homeowner choice to a subset of all panel options available, and, consequentially, determine medium-term market dynamics in terms of quantity and design specifications of panel installations. This model investigates installer profit-maximization strategies of exploring new panel designs offered by manufacturers (a risk-seeking strategy) versus exploiting market-tested technology (a risk-averse strategy). Manufacturer design decisions and homeowner purchase decisions are modeled. Realistic details provided from installer and homeowner interviews are included. For example, installers must estimate panel reliability instead of trusting manufacturer statistics, and homeowners make purchase decisions based in part on installer reputation. We find that installers pursue new and more-efficient panels over sticking-with market-tested technology under a variety of panel-reliability scenarios and two different state scenarios (California and Massachusetts). Results indicate that it does not matter if installers are predisposed to an exploration or exploitation strategy—both types choose to explore new panels that have higher efficiency.

scholarly journals Examining the Influence of Solar Panel Installers on Design Innovation and Market Penetration

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Sinitskaya ◽  
Kelley J. Gomez ◽  
Qifang Bao ◽  
Maria C. Yang ◽  
Erin F. MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Product Design ◽  
Profit Maximization ◽  
Purchase Decisions ◽  
Market Penetration ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Design Decisions ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Design Specifications ◽  
Stakeholder Influence ◽  
Novel Approach

This work uses an agent-based model to examine how installers of photovoltaic (PV) panels influence panel design and the success of residential solar energy. It provides a novel approach to modelling intermediary stakeholder influence on product design, focusing installer decisions instead of the typical solar stakeholder foci of the final customer (homeowners) and the designer/manufacturer. Installers restrict homeowner choice to a subset of all panel options available, and, consequentially, determine medium-term market dynamics in terms of quantity and design specifications of panel installations. This model investigates installer profit-maximization strategies of exploring new panel designs offered by manufacturers vs. exploiting market-tested technology. Manufacturer design decisions and homeowner purchase decisions are modeled. Realistic details provided from installer and homeowner interviews are included. For example, installers must estimate panel reliability instead of trusting manufacturer statistics, and homeowners make purchase decisions based in part on installer reputation. We find that installers pursue new and more-efficient panels over sticking-with market-tested technology under a variety of panel-reliability scenarios and two different state scenarios (California and Massachusetts). Results indicate that it does not matter if installers are predisposed to an exploration or exploitation strategy — both types choose to explore new panels with higher efficiency.

scholarly journals Behavioral agent-based framework for interacting financial markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-115
Author(s):  
Heba M. Ezzat
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Market Makers ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Excess Volatility

Purpose This paper aims at developing a behavioral agent-based model for interacting financial markets. Additionally, the effect of imposing Tobin taxes on market dynamics is explored. Design/methodology/approach The agent-based approach is followed to capture the highly complex, dynamic nature of financial markets. The model represents the interaction between two different financial markets located in two countries. The artificial markets are populated with heterogeneous, boundedly rational agents. There are two types of agents populating the markets; market makers and traders. Each time step, traders decide on which market to participate in and which trading strategy to follow. Traders can follow technical trading strategy, fundamental trading strategy or abstain from trading. The time-varying weight of each trading strategy depends on the current and past performance of this strategy. However, technical traders are loss-averse, where losses are perceived twice the equivalent gains. Market makers settle asset prices according to the net submitted orders. Findings The proposed framework can replicate important stylized facts observed empirically such as bubbles and crashes, excess volatility, clustered volatility, power-law tails, persistent autocorrelation in absolute returns and fractal structure. Practical implications Artificial models linking micro to macro behavior facilitate exploring the effect of different fiscal and monetary policies. The results of imposing Tobin taxes indicate that a small levy may raise government revenues without causing market distortion or instability. Originality/value This paper proposes a novel approach to explore the effect of loss aversion on the decision-making process in interacting financial markets framework.

A Novel Approach to Multihazard Modeling and Simulation

2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silas W. Smith ◽  
Ian Portelli ◽  
Giuseppe Narzisi ◽  
Lewis S. Nelson ◽  
Fabian Menges ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Injury Severity ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Psychosocial Characteristics ◽  
Disaster Plan ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Information System Architecture ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Systemic Stress

ABSTRACTObjective: To develop and apply a novel modeling approach to support medical and public health disaster planning and response using a sarin release scenario in a metropolitan environment.Methods: An agent-based disaster simulation model was developed incorporating the principles of dose response, surge response, and psychosocial characteristics superimposed on topographically accurate geographic information system architecture. The modeling scenarios involved passive and active releases of sarin in multiple transportation hubs in a metropolitan city. Parameters evaluated included emergency medical services, hospital surge capacity (including implementation of disaster plan), and behavioral and psychosocial characteristics of the victims.Results: In passive sarin release scenarios of 5 to 15 L, mortality increased nonlinearly from 0.13% to 8.69%, reaching 55.4% with active dispersion, reflecting higher initial doses. Cumulative mortality rates from releases in 1 to 3 major transportation hubs similarly increased nonlinearly as a function of dose and systemic stress. The increase in mortality rate was most pronounced in the 80% to 100% emergency department occupancy range, analogous to the previously observed queuing phenomenon. Effective implementation of hospital disaster plans decreased mortality and injury severity. Decreasing ambulance response time and increasing available responding units reduced mortality among potentially salvageable patients. Adverse psychosocial characteristics (excess worry and low compliance) increased demands on health care resources. Transfer to alternative urban sites was possible.Conclusions: An agent-based modeling approach provides a mechanism to assess complex individual and systemwide effects in rare events. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:75–87)

Strategic Design Decisions for Uncertain Market Systems Using an Agent Based Approach

2011 ◽  
Vol 133 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Wang ◽  
S. Azarm ◽  
P. K. Kannan
Keyword(s):  
Product Design ◽  
Theoretic Approach ◽  
Competitive Strategies ◽  
Market System ◽  
Design Decisions ◽  
Learning Behaviors ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Strategic Design ◽  
Game Theoretic ◽  
Design For Market Systems

Market players, such as competing manufacturing firms and retail channels, can significantly influence the demand and profit of a new product. Existing methods in design for market systems use game theoretic models that can maximize a firm’s profit with respect to the product design and price variables given the Nash equilibrium of the market system. However, in the design for uncertain market systems, there is seldom equilibrium with players having fixed strategies in a given time period. In this paper, we propose an agent based approach for design for market systems that accounts for learning behaviors of the market players under uncertainty. By learning behaviors we mean that market players gradually, over time, learn to play with better strategies based on action–reaction behaviors of other players. We model a market system with agents representing competing manufacturers and retailers who possess learning capabilities and based on some prespecified rules are able to react and make decisions on the product design and pricing. The proposed agent based approach provides strategic design and pricing decisions for a manufacturing firm in response to possible reactions from market players in the short and long term horizons. Our example results show that the proposed approach can produce competitive strategies for the firm by simulating market players’ learning behaviors when they react only by setting prices, as compared to a game theoretic approach. Furthermore, it can yield profitable product design decisions and competitive strategies when competing firms react by changing design variables in the short term—case for which no previous method in design for market systems has been reported.

scholarly journals Investigations of agent-based modelling for inpatient healthcare systems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amirkiarash Kiani
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Care ◽  
Recovery Time ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Patient Acuity ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Research Plan ◽  
The Impact

The goal of this research was to investigate the possibility of using Agent-based Modelling, a novel approach in computerized simulation, to assess the effects of staff ratio on recovery time and to develop an empirical research plan based on an inpatient unit. By creating a virtual unit, the researcher was able to develop an adjustable model to test several scenarios based on empirical evidence; to comprehend the impact of changes to staff ratio and patient acuity on nurses’ workload and quality of care to patients. This investigation found that acuity indices of patients have no significant effect on available recovery time or the number of unperformed activities. On the contrary, nurse/patient ratio has substantial effects on both available recovery time and the number of unperformed activities; which asserts the significant effect of insufficient nurse staffing on the well-being of nurses as well as quality of care to patients.

scholarly journals Dread Aversion and Economic Preferences

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Dawson ◽  
Samuel Gregory Blane Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individual Differences ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Downside Risk ◽  
Risky Choice ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Suggestive Evidence ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Economic Preferences ◽  
Economic Survey

We are often preoccupied with the future, experiencing dread at the thought of future misery and savoring the thought of future pleasure. Prior lab studies have found that these anticipatory emotions influence decision-making. In this article, using a novel approach, we use economic survey data to estimate individual differences in anticipatory emotions, finding that the tendency to feel displeasure (dread) from anticipating future losses outweighs the pleasure (savoring) from anticipating equal gains—that is, people are dread-averse. We then relate anticipatory emotions to key economic preferences, finding that more dread-averse people are more risk-averse (because they obtain more disutility from contemplating downside risk) and more impatient (because they want to minimize the time spent contemplating risks). We conclude by considering how dread aversion can provide novel explanations for a variety of intertemporal and risky choice phenomena. Dread aversion explains why people are both risk-averse and impatient and provides suggestive evidence as to why these traits are linked.

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