Problems and Perspectives in Seismic Quantitative Risk Analysis of Chemical Process Plants

2018 ◽  
Vol 141 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio C. Caputo ◽  
Fabrizio Paolacci ◽  
Oreste S. Bursi ◽  
Renato Giannini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Critical Review ◽  
Chemical Process ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Industrial Sites ◽  
The Past ◽  
Process Plants

Earthquakes represent a class of natural-technical (NaTech) hazards which in the past have been responsible of major accidents and significant losses in many industrial sites. However, while codes and standards are issued to design specific structures and equipment in both the civil and industrial domain, established procedures for seismic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of process plants are not yet available. In this paper, a critical review of seismic QRA methods applicable to process plants is carried out. Their limitations are highlighted and areas where further research is needed are identified. This will allow to refine modeling tools in order to increase the capabilities of risk analysis in process plants subjected to earthquakes.

Quantitative Seismic Risk Assessment of Process Plants: State of the Art Review and Directions for Future Research

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio C. Caputo ◽  
Renato Giannini ◽  
Fabrizio Paolacci
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Critical Review ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Industrial Sites ◽  
The Past ◽  
Process Plants

Earthquakes represent a class of Natural-Technical hazards which in the past has been responsible of major accidents and significant losses in many industrial sites. However, while codes and standards have been issued to design specific structures and equipment in the civil and industrial domain, established procedures for Quantitative Seismic Risk Assessment (QSRA) of process plants are not yet available. In this paper a critical review of seismic risk assessment methods applicable to process plants is carried out. Their limitations are highlighted and areas needing further research are identified.

scholarly journals Quantitative risk assessment and safety databases in Romanian coal mining: preliminary systematic approach

2022 ◽  
Vol 354 ◽  
pp. 00002
Author(s):  
Gabriel - Victor Vasilescu ◽  
Roland Iosif Moraru ◽  
Gabriel Bujor Bǎbuţ
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Coal Mining ◽  
Block Diagram ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Process Guidance

Risk management is becoming increasingly more complex. Risk assessment, approached quantitatively, requires a factual database to define the likelihood of adverse health effects of workplace-related injuries and exposures, and it attempts to balance scientific knowledge with concerns of staff, investigators and administration. Practical guidance should be provided for Romanian coal mining companies to make progress in risk assessment process. Guidance is given on how to effectively introduce quantitative risk assessment in mining industry, the main goal being to highlight that the most valuable resource remains experience gained by effectively performing the process. Analyzing how various parameters are described/used, the paper aims to establish the place and role of quantitative risk analysis mining. Possibilities of developing safety/reliability database in coal mining are investigated. The block diagram describing the conceptual structure of a database on failures, safety of equipment and workers in the mining industry was developed. Because mining relies heavily on complex technologies - permanent mining facilities and large mobile equipment and support services - often located in isolated and hostile environments, the implementation of quantitative risk analysis and the development of a realistic database could be considered as a resilience business strategy and conversion of available knowledge into management actions.

Seismic Quantitative Risk Assessment of Process Plants Through Monte Carlo Simulations

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Alessandri ◽  
Antonio C. Caputo ◽  
Daniele Corritore ◽  
Renato Giannini ◽  
Fabrizio Paolacci
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Damage Propagation ◽  
Process Plants ◽  
Physical Effects ◽  
Level 1 ◽  
Level I ◽  
Seismic Hazard Curve

This paper describes the application of Monte Carlo method for the quantitative seismic risk assessment (QSRA) of process plants. Starting from the seismic hazard curve of the site where the plant is located, the possible chains of accidents are modelled using a sequence of propagation levels in which Level 0 is represented by the components directly damaged by the earthquake whereas the subsequent Levels represent the resulting consequence propagation. In greater detail all units damaged by energy and materials releases from level 0 units are included in level 1 and so forth, so that referring to process units belonging to a generic i-th Level, they are damaged by level (i-1) units and damage units of level (i+1). The sequence of levels represents the damage propagation across the plant through any multiple interacting sequences of accidents. For each unit a damage (DM) - loss of containment (LOC) matrix is generated allowing to estimate the amount of energy and material releases as well as resulting physical effects based on which the scenario at i-th level is generated. The process stops when no further damage propagation is allowed.

Risk Analysis of Power-Gen Gas Turbines With GADS Outage Data

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Gas Turbine ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Data System ◽  
Loss Prevention ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
Effective Assessment

According to FM Global proprietary data, power-gen gas turbine losses have consistently represented a dominant share of the overall equipment-based loss value over the past decade. Effective assessment of loss exposure or risk related to gas turbines has become and will continue to be a critical but challenging task for property insurers and their clients. Such systematic gas turbine risk assessment is a necessary step to develop strategies for turbine risk mitigation and loss prevention. This paper presents a study of outage data from the Generating Availability Data System (GADS) by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The risk of forced outages in turbines was evaluated in terms of outage days and number of outages per unit-year. In order to understand the drivers of the forced outages, the influence of variables including turbine age, capacity, type, loading characteristic, and event cause codes were analyzed by grouping the outage events based on the chosen values (or ranges of values) of these variables. A list of major findings related to the effect of these variables on the risk of forced outage is discussed.

scholarly journals Seismic Fragility Analysis of a Coupled Tank-Piping System based on Artificial Ground Motions and Surrogate Modeling

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Abbiati ◽  
Marco Broccardo ◽  
Rocco di Filippo ◽  
Bozidar Stojadinovic ◽  
Oreste S. Bursi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Engineering ◽  
Chemical Process ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
System Level ◽  
Process Equipment ◽  
Piping System ◽  
Component Level ◽  
Process Plants ◽  
Level Model

The catastrophic consequences of recent NaTech events triggered by earthquakes highlighted the inadequacy of standard approaches to seismic risk assessment of chemical process plants. To date, the risk assessment of such facilities mainly relies on historical data and focuses on uncoupled process components. As a consequence, the dynamic interaction between process equipment is neglected. In response to this gap, researchers started a progressive integration of the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) risk assessment framework. However, a few limitations still prevent a systematic implementation of this framework to chemical process plants. The most significant are: i) the computational cost of system-level simulations accounting for coupling between process equipment; ii) the experimental cost for component-level model validation; iii) a reduced number of hazard-consistent site-specific ground motion records for time history analyses.In response to these challenges, this paper proposes a recently developed uncertainty quantification-based framework to perform seismic fragility assessments of chemical process plants. The framework employs three key elements: i) a stochastic ground-motion model to supplement scarcity of real records; ii) surrogate modeling to reduce the computational cost of system-level simulations; iii) a component-level model validation based on cost-effective hybrid simulation tests. In order to demonstrate the potential of the framework, two fragility functions are computed for a pipe elbow of a coupled tank-piping system.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document