scholarly journals Risk-Adaptive Set-Based Design and Applications to Shaping a Hydrofoil

2017 ◽  
Vol 139 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
J. O. Royset ◽  
L. Bonfiglio ◽  
G. Vernengo ◽  
S. Brizzolara
Keyword(s):  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
Design Under Uncertainty ◽  
Complex Design ◽  
Measures Of Risk ◽  
Design Case ◽  
Set Based Design ◽  
First Time ◽  
Cavitating Hydrofoil ◽  
Building Technique

The paper presents a framework for set-based design under uncertainty and demonstrates its viability through designing a super-cavitating hydrofoil of an ultrahigh speed vessel. The framework achieves designs that safely meet the requirements as quantified precisely by superquantile measures of risk (s-risk) and reduces the complexity of design under uncertainty. S-risk ensures comprehensive and decision-theoretically sound assessment of risk and permits a decoupling of parametric uncertainty and surrogate (model) uncertainty. The framework is compatible with any surrogate building technique, but we illustrate it by developing for the first time risk-adaptive surrogates that are especially tailored to s-risk. The numerical results demonstrate the framework in a complex design case requiring multifidelity simulation.

scholarly journals THE BUILDING CERAMIC FROM THE EXCAVATIONS OF THE «CAVE TOWN» ESKI-KERMEN IN 1936—1937: THE CATALOGUE OF FINDS FROM THE FOUNDS OF THE BAKHCHYSARAI MUSEUM-PRESERVE

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 165-225
Author(s):  
D. A. Moisieiev
Keyword(s):  
Small Scale ◽  
Building Ceramic ◽  
Morphological Classification ◽  
Full Size ◽  
Complex Design ◽  
Scientific Significance ◽  
Ceramic Paste ◽  
First Time ◽  
Positive Results

The article is about republication of the complex of the building ceramics from the excavations of the «cave town» Eski-Kermen. At the first time this complex was published in 1941 by N. I. Repnikov, who was the author of the excavations, and in the 1950 and 1979 by A. L. Yakobson. This researcher made the complex of roof tiles an important part of his medieval building ceramics investigation. The central peculiarity of these works was a special attention for the craft marks on the tiles and ignorance of common forms and ceramic paste of the tegulaes and imbrexes. Such approach led to serious mistakes in the tiles dating. The republication of this complex based on the modern methodology of roof tiles analysis is an important step for correction of these mistakes and for mainstreaming of its scientific significance. As a result roof tiles from the excavation of the Eski-Kermen were listed by the morphological and technological features and drawn with the accuracy. Instead of small-scale pictures of craft marks without the tegula background as in previous works, this publication presents pictures in scale 1 : 4, where the smallest details of the production were represented in full-size. This methodology showed its positive results in the work with the building ceramics from Eski-Kermen. There are three main branches of these results. At first, the work with the roof tiles from excavation of the Eski-Kermen in 1936—1937 showed mistakes in the pictures of the craft marks in the A. L. Yakobson works. One of the craft mark with the complex design was separated into the two parts, which were dated differently. At-second, some craft marks, which were absent in N. I. Repnikov and A. L. Yakobson works, were published for the first time. The craft mark with the ship and fantastic beast is the most significant of it. At-third, the tegulaes from the N. I. Repnikov excavations were dated according to the technological and morphological classification and by the findings some analogies from modern excavations. The chronology of tiles proposed in this work is demonstrated that the excavations on the Eski-Kermen in the 1936—1937 discovered stratigraphy contexts of the four periods: IX—X c., X — first half of the XIII c., the second half of the XIII c. and XIV c., which weren’t described by N. I. Repnikov.

scholarly journals Reduction of predictive uncertainty in estimating irrigation water requirement through multi-model ensembles and ensemble averaging

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1233-1244 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Multsch ◽  
J.-F. Exbrayat ◽  
M. Kirby ◽  
N. R. Viney ◽  
H.-G. Frede ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
Crop Coefficient ◽  
Water Requirement ◽  
Irrigation Water Requirement ◽  
Ensemble Averaging ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Crop Coefficients ◽  
Model Parametric Uncertainty

Abstract. Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural versus model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty among reference ET is far more important than model parametric uncertainty introduced by crop coefficients. These crop coefficients are used to estimate irrigation water requirement following the single crop coefficient approach. Using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making.

scholarly journals Valsalva computed tomography in visualization of Eustachian tube in patients with patulous Eustachian tube

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suleyman Aksoy ◽  
Yavuz Selim Yıldırım ◽  
Işıl Yurdaışık
Keyword(s):  
Computed Tomography ◽  
Eustachian Tube ◽  
Volume Rendering ◽  
Supine Position ◽  
Valsalva Maneuver ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Air Volume ◽  
Design Case ◽  
First Time ◽  
Patulous Eustachian Tube

Abstract Objectives: There is no study in the literature that patients with clinically-proven PET were evaluated by Valsalva CT. We aimed to evaluate the merit of Valsalva computed tomography (CT) in patients who had clinically-proven patulous Eustachian tube (PET). Design: Case-series Setting and participants: We recruited patients with clinically-proven PET. Participants: Main outcome measures: All participants underwent temporal bone CTs while they were performing the Valsalva maneuver in the supine position. Standard axial plane CT images, along with multiplanar reconstruction and 3D Air volume rendering, were used to visualize the ET in its entirety. Results: Three patients (2 females, one male) with a total of 6 ears were included in the study. All patients had suggestive symptoms of PET, including aural fullness, aerophony, and autophony and underwent clinical examination and audiologic tests. In all ears, the whole Eustachian tube could be visualized with Valsalva CT. Conclusion: For the first time, we demonstrated the merit of Valsalva CT in visualization of the Eustachian tube in its entirety in patients with clinically diagnosed PET.

scholarly journals Reduction of predictive uncertainty in estimating irrigation water requirement through multi-model ensembles and ensemble averaging

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 7525-7558
Author(s):  
S. Multsch ◽  
J.-F. Exbrayat ◽  
M. Kirby ◽  
N. R. Viney ◽  
H.-G. Frede ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
Water Requirement ◽  
Ensemble Average ◽  
Irrigation Water Requirement ◽  
Ensemble Averaging ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Probability Curve ◽  
Model Parametric Uncertainty

Abstract. Irrigation agriculture plays an increasingly important role in food supply. Many evapotranspiration models are used today to estimate the water demand for irrigation. They consider different stages of crop growth by empirical crop coefficients to adapt evapotranspiration throughout the vegetation period. We investigate the importance of the model structural vs. model parametric uncertainty for irrigation simulations by considering six evapotranspiration models and five crop coefficient sets to estimate irrigation water requirements for growing wheat in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The study is carried out using the spatial decision support system SPARE:WATER. We find that structural model uncertainty is far more important than model parametric uncertainty to estimate irrigation water requirement. Using the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique, we are able to reduce the overall predictive model uncertainty by more than 10%. The exceedance probability curve of irrigation water requirements shows that a certain threshold, e.g. an irrigation water limit due to water right of 400 mm, would be less frequently exceeded in case of the REA ensemble average (45%) in comparison to the equally weighted ensemble average (66%). We conclude that multi-model ensemble predictions and sophisticated model averaging techniques are helpful in predicting irrigation demand and provide relevant information for decision making.

METAL-DEFINED PASSIVE POLYMER OPTICAL WAVEGUIDES OPERATING AT BOTH 1.31 AND 1.55 μm WAVELENGTHS

2005 ◽  
Vol 14 (03) ◽  
pp. 391-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
SEONGKU KIM ◽  
K. GEARY ◽  
W. YUAN ◽  
H. R. FETTERMAN ◽  
C. ZHANG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Insertion Loss ◽  
Optical Waveguides ◽  
Metal Film ◽  
Optical Loss ◽  
Optical Mode ◽  
Low Loss ◽  
Optical Wavelength ◽  
Complex Design ◽  
Electro Optic ◽  
First Time

We report experimental results demonstrating novel metal-defined passive polymer optical waveguides with low loss in electro-optic polymers for the first time. The polymer optical waveguides are created using a metal film on the top of an upper cladding without any conventional etching process. The fabricated waveguides have excellent lateral optical mode confinement at both 1.31 and 1.55 μm wavelengths, resulting in a fiber-to-lens optical insertion loss of ~7 dB at 1.55 μm and ~4.5 dB at 1.31 μm wavelength in 3.5 cm long devices. We also present the optical loss dependence of the waveguides as a function of optical wavelength. These results may be used in the complex design of integrated polymer lightwave circuits that require a simpler and inexpensive fabrication process.

scholarly journals K-12 Engineering Outreach: Design Decisions, Rationales, and Applications

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gamze Ozogul ◽  
Jana Reisslein ◽  
Martin Reisslein
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Studies ◽  
Mediated Learning ◽  
Learning Platform ◽  
Computer Mediated ◽  
Complex Design ◽  
Physical Limitations ◽  
Design Case ◽  
Engineering Outreach ◽  
Process Context ◽  
K 12

Even though engineering outreach to K-12 schools initially seemed to be a simple undertaking, it proved to require complex design solutions related to a variety of issues. The purpose of this design case is to tell the story of our National Science Foundation (NSF) supported engineering outreach project, that took place between the years of 2007-2013. The design problem of this project started with the issue of how to design the engineering instruction, what to provide within the K-12 instruction, how to conduct the outreach, and how to overcome physical limitations of school sites. This design case captures the design process, context, various designs of the computer-mediated learning platform, and the rationales for design iterations. We also describe how the design team, which included experts in instructional design, electrical engineering, and educational psychology, as well as carpenters, teachers, and graphic designers, worked together to accomplish an outreach project that reached over 3,600 K-12 students. In addition to the design processes, we also report the major findings from our evaluation studies of the intructional modules delivered to K-12 students, and how we used these results to iterate and refine our module designs.

scholarly journals The impact of land model structural, parameter, and forcing errors on the characterization of soil moisture uncertainty

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 2283-2319 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Maggioni ◽  
E. N. Anagnostou ◽  
R. H. Reichle
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
Structural Parameter ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Prognostic Variables ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the contribution of rainfall forcing relative to the model uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. This study depicts different sources of uncertainty, namely, errors in the model input (i.e., rainfall estimates from satellite remote sensing observations) and errors in the land surface model itself. Specifically, rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates reference-like ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) technique or by adding randomly generated noise to the model prognostic variables. While the first method only addresses parametric uncertainty, the second one addresses both structural and parametric uncertainty. Despite this, a reasonable spread in soil moisture is achieved with relatively few parameter perturbations through GLUE, whereas the same ensemble width requires stronger prognostic perturbations with the standard random perturbation method. The probability of encapsulating the reference soil moisture simulation increases when the rainfall forcing uncertainty and the model uncertainty approaches are combined (compared with using only rainfall uncertainty). This improvement is more significant when using the GLUE technique to perturb CLSM parameters as opposed to perturbing the CLSM prognostic variables.

The New Swedish Cyprus Expedition 2017: Excavations at Hala Sultan Tekke (The Söderberg Expedition). Preliminary results

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 29-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter M. Fischer ◽  
Teresa Bürge ◽  
Magdalena Ausiayevich ◽  
Bebelyn Placiente Robedizo ◽  
Victor Barrera Alarcón ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bronze Age ◽  
Penetration Depth ◽  
Copper Smelting ◽  
Maximum Penetration Depth ◽  
Field Season ◽  
Maximum Penetration ◽  
First Time ◽  
And Storage ◽  
The Bronze Age ◽  
Building Technique

During the eighth field season at the Bronze Age city of Hala Sultan Tekke, excavations in City Quarter 1 (CQ1) exposed massive industrial and domestic structures belonging to three phases of occupation (Strata 3–1) dating to the 13th and 12th centuries BC (LC IIC–IIIA). Georadar survey, penetrating to a maximum depth of approximately 1 m, guided the excavation of walls of Strata 1–2, both of which were destroyed by conflagration. Excavations 1.5–2 m below the surface and also below the maximum penetration depth of the radar revealed a heretofore buried phase of occupation with substantial architectural units. For the first time, massive Stratum 3 structures with a markedly different building technique were exposed. Copper smelting installations, much ash and slag, and storage facilities also belong to this phase of occupation. Additional excavations guided by results from a magnetometer survey were carried out in Area A, roughly 600 m to the south-east of CQ1. Numerous circular anomalies were excavated. These were identified as Late Cypriot wells, rich offering pits, and a tomb from the same period. In addition to numerous intact locally produced vessels and other finds, the tomb contained a complete Late Minoan II/IIIA piriform jar with bird motifs which have exact parallels from Knossos. Other finds from this tomb include a diadem of leaf gold, amethyst jewellery, and nine sphendonoid shaped balance weights of haematite together with a hornblende whetstone. The features from Area A cover a period from the 16th to the 13th centuries BC (LC IB–IIC).

Annulate lamellae in the Sertoli cells of guinea pig testis after unilateral torsion of the spermatic cord

1984 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 196-197
Author(s):  
J. Chakraborty ◽  
A. P. Sinha Hikim ◽  
J. S. Jhunjhunwala
Keyword(s):  
Sertoli Cells ◽  
Guinea Pigs ◽  
Spermatic Cord ◽  
Present Report ◽  
Cell Types ◽  
Annulate Lamellae ◽  
Spermatogenic Cells ◽  
Electron Microscopic ◽  
Structural Details ◽  
First Time

Although the presence of annulate lamellae was noted in many cell types, including the rat spermatogenic cells, this structure was never reported in the Sertoli cells of any rodent species. The present report is based on a part of our project on the effect of torsion of the spermatic cord to the contralateral testis. This paper describes for the first time, the fine structural details of the annulate lamellae in the Sertoli cells of damaged testis from guinea pigs.One side of the spermatic cord of each of six Hartly strain adult guinea pigs was surgically twisted (540°) under pentobarbital anesthesia (1). Four months after induction of torsion, animals were sacrificed, testes were excised and processed for the light and electron microscopic investigations. In the damaged testis, the majority of seminiferous tubule contained a layer of Sertoli cells with occasional spermatogonia (Fig. 1). Nuclei of these Sertoli cells were highly pleomorphic and contained small chromatinic clumps adjacent to the inner aspect of the nuclear envelope (Fig. 2).

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