Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis Using a Vine-ARMA Load Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Hu ◽  
Sankaran Mahadevan
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Processes ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Arma Model ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Arma Models ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Vine Copula ◽  
Stochastic Loads ◽  
Gaussian Stochastic Processes

A common strategy for the modeling of stochastic loads in time-dependent reliability analysis is to describe the loads as independent Gaussian stochastic processes. This assumption does not hold for many engineering applications. This paper proposes a Vine-autoregressive-moving average (Vine-ARMA) load model for time-dependent reliability analysis, in problems with a vector of correlated non-Gaussian stochastic loads. The marginal stochastic processes are modeled as univariate ARMA models. The correlations among different univariate ARMA models are captured using the Vine copula. The ARMA model maintains the correlation over time. The Vine copula represents not only the correlation among different ARMA models but also the tail dependence of different ARMA models. Therefore, the developed Vine-ARMA model can flexibly model a vector of high-dimensional correlated non-Gaussian stochastic processes with the consideration of tail dependence. Due to the complicated structure of the Vine-ARMA model, new challenges are introduced in time-dependent reliability analysis. In order to overcome these challenges, the Vine-ARMA model is integrated with a single-loop Kriging (SILK) surrogate modeling method. A hydrokinetic turbine blade subjected to a vector of correlated river flow loads is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis Using a New Multivariate Stochastic Load Model

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Hu ◽  
Sankaran Mahadevan
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Processes ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Arma Model ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Arma Models ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Vine Copula ◽  
Stochastic Loads ◽  
Gaussian Stochastic Processes

A common strategy for the modeling of stochastic loads in time-dependent reliability analysis is to describe the loads as independent Gaussian stochastic processes. This assumption does not hold for many engineering applications. This paper proposes a Vine-autoregressive-moving average (Vine-ARMA) load model for time-dependent reliability analysis, in problems with a vector of correlated non-Gaussian stochastic loads. The marginal stochastic processes are modeled as univariate ARMA models. The correlations between different univariate ARMA models are captured using the Vine-copula. The ARMA model maintains the correlation over time. The Vine-copula represents not only the correlation between different ARMA models, but also the tail dependence of different ARMA models. The developed Vine-ARMA model therefore can flexibly model a vector of high-dimensional correlated non-Gaussian stochastic processes with the consideration of tail dependence. Due to the complicated structure of the Vine-ARMA model, new challenges are introduced in time-dependent reliability analysis. In order to overcome these challenges, the Vine-ARMA model is integrated with a recently developed single-loop Kriging (SILK) surrogate modeling method. A hydrokinetic turbine blade subjected to a vector of correlated river flow loads is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Tolerant control for non-Gaussian stochastic processes with unknown faults via two-step fuzzy modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 95 (4) ◽  
pp. 2703-2716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Yi ◽  
Liren Shao ◽  
Xiangxiang Fan ◽  
Tianping Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Processes ◽  
Fuzzy Modeling ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Gaussian Stochastic Processes

Reliability Analysis of Nonlinear Vibratory Systems Under Non-Gaussian Loads Using a Sensitivity-Based Propagation of Moments

2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Papadimitriou ◽  
Zissimos P. Mourelatos ◽  
Santosh Patil ◽  
Zhen Hu ◽  
Vasiliki Tsianika ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Autocorrelation Function ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Coefficients ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Vibratory System ◽  
First Order ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
First Four Moments

Abstract The paper proposes a new methodology for time-dependent reliability analysis of vibratory systems using a combination of a first-order, four-moment (FOFM) method and a non-Gaussian Karhunen–Loeve (NG-KL) expansion. The approach can also be used for random vibrations studies. The vibratory system is nonlinear and is excited by stationary non-Gaussian input random processes which are characterized by their first four marginal moments and autocorrelation function. The NG-KL expansion expresses each input non-Gaussian process as a linear combination of uncorrelated, non-Gaussian random variables and computes their first four moments. The FOFM method then uses the moments of the NG-KL variables to calculate the moments and autocorrelation function of the output processes based on a first-order Taylor expansion (linearization) of the system equations of motion. Using the output moments and autocorrelation function, another NG-KL expansion expresses the output processes in terms of uncorrelated non-Gaussian variables in the time domain, allowing the generation of output trajectories. The latter are used to estimate the time-dependent probability of failure using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The computational cost of the proposed approach is proportional to the number of NG-KL random variables and is significantly lower than that of other recently developed methodologies which are based on sampling. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using a two-degree-of-freedom nonlinear vibratory system with random coefficients excited by a stationary non-Gaussian random process.

Reliability Analysis and Random Vibration of Nonlinear Systems Using the Adjoint Method and Projected Differentiation

2020 ◽  
Vol 143 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Papadimitriou ◽  
Zissimos P. Mourelatos ◽  
Zhen Hu
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Equations Of Motion ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Processes ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Vibratory System ◽  
Standard Normal ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Nonlinear Equations Of Motion ◽  
Adjoint Approach

Abstract This paper proposes a new methodology for time-dependent reliability and random vibrations of nonlinear vibratory systems using a combination of a time-dependent adjoint variable (AV) method and a projected differentiation (PD) method. The proposed approach is called AV-PD. The vibratory system is excited by stationary Gaussian or non-Gaussian input random processes. A Karhunen–Loeve (KL) expansion expresses each input random process in terms of standard normal random variables. The nonlinear equations of motion (EOM) are linearized using a Taylor expansion using the first-order derivatives of the output with respect to the input KL random variables. An adjoint approach obtains the output derivatives accurately and efficiently requiring the solution of as many sets of EOM as the number of outputs of interest, independently of the number of KL random variables. The proposed PD method then computes the autocorrelation function of each output process at an additional cost of solving as many sets of EOM as the number of outputs of interest, independently of the time horizon (simulation time). A time-dependent reliability analysis is finally performed using a KL expansion of the output processes and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The number of solutions of the EOM scales only with the number of output random processes which is commonly much smaller than the number of input KL random variables. The efficiency and accuracy of the proposed approach is demonstrated using a four degree-of-freedom (DOF) half-car vibratory problem.

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