Predictive Modeling Techniques to Forecast Energy Demand in the United States: A Focus on Economic and Demographic Factors

2015 ◽  
Vol 138 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Angshuman Deka ◽  
Nima Hamta ◽  
Behzad Esmaeilian ◽  
Sara Behdad
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
The U.S

Effective energy planning and governmental decision-making policies heavily rely on accurate forecast of energy demand. This paper discusses and compares five different forecasting techniques to model energy demand in the United States using economic and demographic factors. Two artificial neural network (ANN) models, two regression analysis models, and one autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model are developed based on the historical data from 1950 to 2013. While ANN model 1 and regression model 1 use gross domestic product (GDP), gross national product (GNP), and per capita personal income as independent input factors, ANN model 2 and regression model 2 employ GDP, GNP, and population (POP) as the predictive factors. The forecasted values resulted from these models are compared with the forecast made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the period of 2014–2019. The forecasted results of ANN models and regression model 1 are close to those of the U.S. EIA; however, the results of regression model 2 and ARIMA model are significantly different from the forecast made by the U.S. EIA. Finally, a comparison of the forecasted values resulted from three efficient models showed that the energy demand would vary between 95.51 and 100.08 quadrillion British thermal unit (btu) for the period of 2014–2019. In addition, we have discussed the possibility of self-sufficiency of the United States in terms of energy generation based on the information of current available technologies nationwide.

Predictive Modeling Techniques to Forecast Energy Demand in the United States: A Focus on Economic and Demographic Factors

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angshuman Deka ◽  
Nima Hamta ◽  
Behzad Esmaeilian ◽  
Sara Behdad
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
The U.S

Effective energy planning and governmental decision making policies heavily rely on accurate forecast of energy demand. This paper discusses and compares five different forecasting techniques to model energy demand in the United States using economic and demographic factors. Two Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models, two regression analysis models and one autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model are developed based on historical data from 1950–2013. While ANN model 1 and regression model 1 use Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross National Product (GNP) and per capita personal income as independent input factors, ANN model 2 and regression model 2 employ GDP, GNP and population (POP) as the predictive factors. The forecasted values resulted from these models are compared with the forecast made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the period of 2014–2019. The forecasted results of ANN models and regression model 1 are close to those of the U.S. EIA, however the results of regression model 2 and ARIMA model are significantly different from the forecast made by the U.S. EIA. Finally, a comparison of the forecasted values resulted from three efficient models showed the energy demand would vary between 95.51 and 100.08 quadrillion British thermal unit for the period of 2014–2019.

scholarly journals A Spatially Detailed and Economically Complete Blue Water Footprint of the United States

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard R. Rushforth ◽  
Benjamin L. Ruddell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Footprint ◽  
The United States ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
United States Geological Survey ◽  
United States Department ◽  
Blue Water ◽  
The U.S

Abstract. This paper quantifies and maps a spatially detailed and economically complete blue water footprint for the United States, utilizing the National Water Economy Database version 1.1 (NWED). NWED utilizes multiple mesoscale federal data resources from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE), and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to quantify water use, economic trade, and commodity flows to construct this water footprint. Results corroborate previous studies in both the magnitude of the U.S. water footprint (F) and in the observed pattern of virtual water flows. The median water footprint (FCUMed) of the U.S. is 181 966 Mm3 (FWithdrawal: 400 844 Mm3; FCUMax: 222 144 Mm3; FCUMin: 61 117 Mm3) and the median per capita water footprint (F'CUMed) of the U.S. is 589 m3 capita−1 (F'Withdrawal: 1298 m3 capita−1; F'CUMax: 720 m3 capita−1; F'CUMin: 198 m3 capita−1). The U.S. hydro-economic network is centered on cities and is dominated by the local and regional scales. Approximately (58 %) of U.S. water consumption is for the direct and indirect use by cities. Further, the water footprint of agriculture and livestock is 93 % of the total U.S. water footprint, and is dominated by irrigated agriculture in the Western U.S. The water footprint of the industrial, domestic, and power economic sectors is centered on population centers, while the water footprint of the mining sector is highly dependent on the location of mineral resources. Owing to uncertainty in consumptive use coefficients alone, the mesoscale blue water footprint uncertainty ranges from 63 % to over 99 % depending on location. Harmonized region-specific, economic sector-specific consumption coefficients are necessary to reduce water footprint uncertainties and to better understand the human economy's water use impact on the hydrosphere.

The Burden of Alzheimer’s Disease Mortality in the United States, 1999-2018

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Xuan Zhao ◽  
Cancan Li ◽  
Guoyong Ding ◽  
Yuanyuan Heng ◽  
An Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Alzheimer’S Disease ◽  
Alzheimer's Disease ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Targeted Prevention ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
The U.S

Background: The increasing prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), along with the associated burden on healthcare systems, presents a substantial public health challenge. Objective: This study aimed to investigate trends in AD mortality and the relevant burden across the United States (U.S.) from 1999 to 2018 and to predict mortality trends between 2019 and 2023. Methods: Data on AD-related deaths between 1999 and 2018 were collected from the WONDER database administered by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to analyze mortality trends due to AD. Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated to explore the burden of AD deaths. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast mortality trends from 2019 to 2023. Results: Over a recent 20-year period, the number of AD deaths in the U.S. increased from 44,536 (31,145 females and 13,391 males) to 122,019 (84,062 females and 37,957 males). The overall age-adjusted mortality rate increased from 16.5/100,000 in 1999 to 30.5/100,000 in 2018. AD mortality is projected to reach 42.40/100000 within the year 2023. Overall, AD resulted in 322,773.00 YLL (2.33 per 1000 population) in 1999 and 658,501.87 YLL (3.68 per 1000 population) in 2018. Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate an increase in AD mortality in the U.S. from 1999 to 2018 as well as a rapid increase from 2019 to 2023. The high burden of AD deaths emphasizes the need for targeted prevention, early diagnosis, and hierarchical management.

An American Language

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosina Lozano
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Spanish Language ◽  
Spanish Speakers ◽  
Language Recognition ◽  
Political Language ◽  
Political Issue ◽  
History Of ◽  
The U.S

An American Language is a political history of the Spanish language in the United States. The nation has always been multilingual and the Spanish language in particular has remained as an important political issue into the present. After the U.S.-Mexican War, the Spanish language became a language of politics as Spanish speakers in the U.S. Southwest used it to build territorial and state governments. In the twentieth century, Spanish became a political language where speakers and those opposed to its use clashed over what Spanish's presence in the United States meant. This book recovers this story by using evidence that includes Spanish language newspapers, letters, state and territorial session laws, and federal archives to profile the struggle and resilience of Spanish speakers who advocated for their language rights as U.S. citizens. Comparing Spanish as a language of politics and as a political language across the Southwest and noncontiguous territories provides an opportunity to measure shifts in allegiance to the nation and exposes differing forms of nationalism. Language concessions and continued use of Spanish is a measure of power. Official language recognition by federal or state officials validates Spanish speakers' claims to US citizenship. The long history of policies relating to language in the United States provides a way to measure how U.S. visions of itself have shifted due to continuous migration from Latin America. Spanish-speaking U.S. citizens are crucial arbiters of Spanish language politics and their successes have broader implications on national policy and our understanding of Americans.

Palestine Unbound

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 130-134
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Task Force ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Tel Aviv ◽  
The Us ◽  
Intention To Move ◽  
Arab Israeli Conflict ◽  
The U.S

This section, updated regularly on the blog Palestine Square, covers popular conversations related to the Palestinians and the Arab-Israeli conflict during the quarter 16 November 2017 to 15 February 2018: #JerusalemIstheCapitalofPalestine went viral after U.S. president Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and announced his intention to move the U.S. embassy there from Tel Aviv. The arrest of Palestinian teenager Ahed Tamimi for slapping an Israeli soldier also prompted a viral campaign under the hashtag #FreeAhed. A smaller campaign protested the exclusion of Palestinian human rights from the agenda of the annual Creating Change conference organized by the US-based National LGBTQ Task Force in Washington. And, UNRWA publicized its emergency funding appeal, following the decision of the United States to slash funding to the organization, with the hashtag #DignityIsPriceless.

The French Way

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard F. Kuisel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
French Language ◽  
French Cinema ◽  
Free Markets ◽  
Technology Sector ◽  
Aids Epidemic ◽  
Political Reality ◽  
Politics And Culture ◽  
The U.S

There are over 1,000 McDonald's on French soil. Two Disney theme parks have opened near Paris in the last two decades. And American-inspired vocabulary such as “le weekend” has been absorbed into the French language. But as former French president Jacques Chirac put it: “The U.S. finds France unbearably pretentious. And we find the U.S. unbearably hegemonic.” Are the French fascinated or threatened by America? They Americanize yet are notorious for expressions of anti-Americanism. From McDonald's and Coca-Cola to free markets and foreign policy, this book looks closely at the conflicts and contradictions of France's relationship to American politics and culture. The book shows how the French have used America as both yardstick and foil to measure their own distinct national identity. France has charted its own path: it has welcomed America's products but rejected American policies; assailed Americ's “jungle capitalism” while liberalizing its own economy; attacked “Reaganomics” while defending French social security; and protected French cinema, television, food, and language even while ingesting American pop culture. The book examines France's role as an independent ally of the United States, but he also considers the country's failures in influencing the Reagan, Bush, and Clinton administrations. Whether investigating France's successful information technology sector or its spurning of American expertise during the AIDS epidemic, the book asks if this insistence on a French way represents a growing distance between Europe and the United States or a reaction to American globalization. Exploring cultural trends, values, public opinion, and political reality, this book delves into the complex relationship between two modern nations.

Latino Catholicism

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Matovina
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Sixteenth Century ◽  
Catholic Church ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
The United States ◽  
Societal Impact ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Public Debates ◽  
The U.S

Most histories of Catholicism in the United States focus on the experience of Euro-American Catholics, whose views on social issues have dominated public debates. This book provides a comprehensive overview of the Latino Catholic experience in America from the sixteenth century to today, and offers the most in-depth examination to date of the important ways the U.S. Catholic Church, its evolving Latino majority, and American culture are mutually transforming one another. This book highlights the vital contributions of Latinos to American religious and social life, demonstrating in particular how their engagement with the U.S. cultural milieu is the most significant factor behind their ecclesial and societal impact.

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