A Vine-Copula-Based Reliability Analysis Method for Structures With Multidimensional Correlation

2015 ◽  
Vol 137 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Jiang ◽  
W. Zhang ◽  
X. Han ◽  
B. Y. Ni ◽  
L. J. Song
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Computational Method ◽  
Joint Probability Distribution ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Solution Algorithms ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Vine Copula

This paper proposed a vine-copula-based structural reliability analysis method which is an effective approach for performing a reliability analysis on complex multidimensional correlation problems. A joint probability distribution function (PDF) among multidimensional random variables was established using a vine copula function, based on which a reliability analysis model was constructed. Two solution algorithms were proposed to solve this reliability analysis model: one was based on Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and another one was based on the first-order reliability method (FORM). The former method provides a generalized computational method for a reliability analysis based on vine copula functions and can provide so-called “precise solutions”; the latter method has high computational efficiency and can be used to solve actual complex engineering problems. Finally, three numerical examples were provided to verify the effectiveness of the method.

A Probabilistic and Interval Hybrid Reliability Analysis Method for Structures with Correlated Uncertain Parameters

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (04) ◽  
pp. 1540006 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Jiang ◽  
J. Zheng ◽  
B. Y. Ni ◽  
X. Han
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Probability Interval ◽  
Uncertain Variables ◽  
Uncertainty Model ◽  
Sample Correlation ◽  
Hybrid Reliability

This paper proposes a probability-interval mixed uncertainty model considering parametric correlations and a corresponding structural reliability analysis method. First of all, we introduce the sample correlation coefficients to express the correlations between different kinds of uncertain variables including probability and interval variables. Then dependent parameters are transformed into independent ones through a matrix transformation. A reliability analysis model is put forward, and an efficient method is built to obtain the reliability index or failure probability interval of the structure. Finally, four numerical examples are provided to verify the validity of the method.

scholarly journals An improved approach by introducing copula functions for structural reliability analysis under hybrid uncertainties

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 168781401878583 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng Liu ◽  
Xin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Probability Theory ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Field Tests ◽  
Copula Function ◽  
Working Environment ◽  
Imprecise Probability ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Reliability Method

The structural composition of the oil platform is very complicated, and its working environment is harsh, thus conducting a large number of reliability tests is not feasible, and the field tests are also hard to accomplish. So the reliability of the oil platform cannot be analyzed and calculated by the traditional reliability method which needs a lot of test data, and new methods should be studied. In recent years, imprecise probability theory has attracted more and more attention because when unified, it can quantify hybrid uncertainty. Structural reliability analysis on the basis of imprecise probability theory has made remarkable achievements in theoretical aspects, but it is scarcely used in practical engineering domains due to the complexity in the developed methods and the unavailability of suitable or specific modeling steps for applications. In this regard, we propose a unified quantification method for statistical data, fuzzy data, incomplete information, and the like, which can handle the issue of hybrid uncertainties, and then, we construct an improved imprecise structural reliability model aiming at the practical problems by introducing copula function. To verify the existing methodology, we also consider a cantilever beam widely applied in the oil platform here for the structural reliability analysis.

scholarly journals Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Beams Subjected to Uniform and Pitting Corrosion and Brittle Fracture

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 1820
Author(s):  
Mohamed El Amine Ben Seghier ◽  
Behrooz Keshtegar ◽  
Hussam Mahmoud
Keyword(s):  
Reinforced Concrete ◽  
Brittle Fracture ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Pitting Corrosion ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
State Function ◽  
Rc Beams ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
Reliability Method

Reinforced concrete (RC) beams are basic elements used in the construction of various structures and infrastructural systems. When exposed to harsh environmental conditions, the integrity of RC beams could be compromised as a result of various deterioration mechanisms. One of the most common deterioration mechanisms is the formation of different types of corrosion in the steel reinforcements of the beams, which could impact the overall reliability of the beam. Existing classical reliability analysis methods have shown unstable results when used for the assessment of highly nonlinear problems, such as corroded RC beams. To that end, the main purpose of this paper is to explore the use of a structural reliability method for the multi-state assessment of corroded RC beams. To do so, an improved reliability method, namely the three-term conjugate map (TCM) based on the first order reliability method (FORM), is used. The application of the TCM method to identify the multi-state failure of RC beams is validated against various well-known structural reliability-based FORM formulations. The limit state function (LSF) for corroded RC beams is formulated in accordance with two corrosion types, namely uniform and pitting corrosion, and with consideration of brittle fracture due to the pit-to-crack transition probability. The time-dependent reliability analyses conducted in this study are also used to assess the influence of various parameters on the resulting failure probability of the corroded beams. The results show that the nominal bar diameter, corrosion initiation rate, and the external loads have an important influence on the safety of these structures. In addition, the proposed method is shown to outperform other reliability-based FORM formulations in predicting the level of reliability in RC beams.

An accuracy analysis method for first-order reliability method

2018 ◽  
Vol 233 (12) ◽  
pp. 4319-4327 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenzhong Chen ◽  
Zihao Wu ◽  
Xiaoke Li ◽  
Ge Chen ◽  
Guangfeng Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Nonlinear Problems ◽  
Accuracy Analysis ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
First Order Reliability Method ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reliability Level ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Value Range ◽  
Crashworthiness Design

The first-order reliability method is widely used for structural reliability analysis; however, its accuracy would become worse for nonlinear problems. This paper proposes the accuracy analysis method of the first-order reliability method, which considers the worst cases when using the first-order reliability method and gives the possible value range of the probability of safety. The accuracy analysis method can evaluate the reliability level of the first-order reliability method when the failure surfaces are nonlinear. The calculation formula for the possible value range of the probability of safety is proposed, and its trend as the dimensions and reliability rise is also discussed in this paper. A numerical example and a honeycomb crashworthiness design are presented to validate the accuracy of the first-order reliability method, and the results show that they are located within the possible value range proposed in this paper.

scholarly journals Dynamic Reliability Analysis of Corroded Pipeline Using Bayesian Network

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.35) ◽  
pp. 210
Author(s):  
Nurul Sa’aadah Sulaiman ◽  
Henry Tan
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Network ◽  
Operating Pressure ◽  
Dynamic Reliability ◽  
Time Dynamic ◽  
Remaining Service Life ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Deterioration Process

Maintenance and integrity management of hydrocarbons pipelines face the challenges from uncertainties in the data available. This paper demonstrates a way for pipeline remaining service life prediction that integrates structural reliability analysis, accumulated corrosion knowledge, and inspection data on a sound mathematical foundation. Pipeline defects depth grows with time according to an empirical corrosion power law, and this is checked for leakage and rupture probability. The pipeline operating pressure is checked with the degraded failure pressure given by ASME B31G code for rupture likelihood. As corrosion process evolves with time, Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is employed to model the stochastic corrosion deterioration process. From the results obtained, the proposed DBN model for pipeline reliability is advanced compared with other traditional structural reliability method whereby the updating ability brings in more accurate prediction results of structural reliability. The comparisons show that the DBN model can achieve a realistic result similar to the conventional method, Monte Carlo Simulation with very minor discrepancy.

Reliability Analysis of Ultimate Strength of a Capesize Bulk Carrier in Hogging and Alternate Hold Loading Condition

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhi Shu ◽  
Torgeir Moan
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Ultimate Strength ◽  
Loading Condition ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Bulk Carrier ◽  
Local Loads ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Bulk Carriers ◽  
Bending Capacity ◽  
Global And Local

This paper deals with the structural reliability analysis (SRA) of ultimate strength of a Capesize bulk carrier in hogging and alternate hold loading condition (AHL). The ultimate strength in hogging and AHL condition is very important for the safety of bulk carriers since the local loads due to internal cargo loads and external sea pressure can reduce the ultimate bending capacity. In the present paper, the characteristic ultimate bending capacity of the subject bulk carrier is investigated by nonlinear finite element (FE) analysis and the characteristic value of the global and local loads are determined in accordance with the Common Structural Rules for bulk carriers (CSR-BC). The uncertainties associated with the loading capacity and load effects are appropriately modelled. The First Order Reliability Method (FORM) is adopted to calculate the annual probability of failure of this bulk carrier in hogging and AHL condition. The effect of heavy weather avoidance on the global and local loads is also evaluated in the SRA. The results show that the local loads have a significant impact on the failure probability of such vessels in the hogging and AHL condition.

scholarly journals Non-Probabilistic Time-Varying Reliability-Based Analysis of Corroded Pipelines Considering the Interaction of Multiple Uncertainty Variables

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1965 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangqin Hou ◽  
Yihuan Wang ◽  
Peng Zhang ◽  
Guojin Qin
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Corrosion Defects ◽  
Probability Information ◽  
Safe Working

Reliability analysis of corroded pipelines is critical to the integrity and safe working of pipeline infrastructure. Aiming at less probability information is obtained for corrosion pipeline engineering, and the mechanical properties of pipeline with corrosion defects deteriorate caused by the accumulative effect of corrosion growth. Based on the quasi-static analysis method and non-probability theory, this paper presents a reliability model for assessing corroded pipelines with corrosion growth. In fact, reliability analysis of corroded pipelines needs to consider the interaction of multiple uncertainty variables. By introducing interaction theory, a mathematical model of corrosion defects considering the interaction of variables is put forward. Moreover, this paper develops a non-probabilistic time-varying reliability method for pipeline systems with multiple defects. Thus, several numerical examples are investigated to discuss the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The results show that a two-dimensional or even three-dimensional ellipsoid model with correlation has more accurate results to evaluate corroded pipelines under the interaction of multiple corroded defects with poor information. Furthermore, a non-probabilistic time-varying reliability model is established according to the time-varying characteristics of the corroded pipeline under the influence of multiple factors. An effective complement to the theory of non-probabilistic reliability analysis of system is investigated. The analysis of the results suggests that interaction of corroded pipeline has a negligible impact on reliability. It also provides a theoretical basis for maintenance and is of great significance for risk- and reliability-informed decisions regarding buried oil and gas pipelines.

An efficient particle swarm optimization-joint probability distribution optimization method for structural reliability analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 095440622094155
Author(s):  
Hossein Mansourinejad ◽  
Kamran Daneshjou
Keyword(s):  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Joint Probability Distribution ◽  
Engineering Structures ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
Conventional Methods

The performance function of many engineering structures and mechanisms is usually complex, highly nonlinear, and described in the implicit form. The reliability analysis of these structures using common methods requires high cost and time. In this paper, a new approach for reliability analysis of engineering structures and mechanisms by using the particle swarm optimization algorithm is presented. The advantages of this method in comparison with the conventional methods are its simplicity and accuracy. In addition, the limitations of the common previously presented methods are eliminated by the proposed method. This approach is based on a new redefinition of most probable point in the reliability analysis. To evaluate the performance and validity of the proposed method, some examples in the reliability analysis of various functions are employed. Finally, the superiority of the proposed method in performance and accuracy is demonstrated and compared to the conventional methods and it can be used for reliability analysis of complicated engineering structures.

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