On Risk-Based Design of Complex Engineering Systems: An Analytical Extreme Event Framework

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hami Golbayani ◽  
Kazem Kazerounian
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Engineering Systems ◽  
Risk Of Failure ◽  
Complex Engineering ◽  
Complex Engineering Systems

In this work, a novel analytical framework is proposed for the risk-based design of complex engineering systems. The risk based-design process is the reverse process of risk propagation that entails the optimum allocation of the desired risk of failure of the system to all of its components. This paper studies the challenges in the design process of complex systems, the mathematical modeling of their topological architecture, and their unique behaviors. These characteristics make it impossible for the designer to use the common reliability and risk methodologies in the design process. The fundamental development of this work is an analytical upper bound for the distribution of risk of failure in the subsystem or element level. This upper bound satisfies the subadditivity condition of a coherent measure of risk. Additionally, its simplicity and low computational cost provide an appropriate framework as a fundamental building block for the risk-based design of complex systems. The proposed methodology is applied to three examples with insignificant desired probability of failure and its accuracy is compared with the Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating its effectiveness and value.

Generalized Coupling Management in Complex Engineering Systems Optimization

2011 ◽  
Vol 133 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sulaiman F. Alyaqout ◽  
Diane L. Peters ◽  
Panos Y. Papalambros ◽  
A. Galip Ulsoy
Keyword(s):  
Computational Cost ◽  
System Optimization ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Engineering Systems ◽  
Solution Strategies ◽  
Weakly Coupled ◽  
System Solution ◽  
Complex Engineering ◽  
Solution Accuracy ◽  
Complex Engineering Systems

Decomposition-based design optimization strategies are used to solve complex engineering system problems that might be otherwise unsolvable. Yet, the associated computational cost can be prohibitively high due to the often large number of iterations needed for coordination of subproblem solutions. To reduce this cost one may exploit the fact that some systems may be weakly coupled and their interactions can be suspended with little loss in solution accuracy. Suspending such interactions is usually based on the analyst’s experience or experimental observation. This article introduces an explicit measure of coupling strength among interconnected subproblems in a decomposed system optimization problem, along with a systematic way for calculating it. The strength measure is then used to suspend weak couplings and, thus, improve system solution strategies such as the model coordination method. Examples show that the resulting strategy may decrease the number of required function evaluations significantly.

Effectiveness Of Life Cycle Management Of Projects Using Information Modeling

2019 ◽  
pp. 24-29 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Life Cycle Management ◽  
Information Modeling ◽  
Engineering Systems ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Complex Engineering ◽  
Domestic Practices ◽  
Capital Construction ◽  
Complex Engineering Systems

Improving the efficiency of life cycle management of capital construction projects using information modeling technologies is one of the important tasks of the construction industry. The paper presents an analysis of accumulated domestic practices, including the legal and regulatory framework, assessing the effectiveness of managing the implementation of investment construction projects and of complex and serial capital construction projects, as well as the life cycle management of especially dangerous technically complex and unique capital construction projects using information modeling technologies, especially capital construction projects, as well as their supporting and using systems, primarily in the nuclear and transport sectors. A review of modern approaches to assessing the effectiveness of life cycle management systems of complex engineering systems in relation to capital construction projects is carried out. The presented material will make it possible to formulate the basic principles and prospects of applying approaches to assessing the effectiveness of the life cycle management system of a capital construction project using information modeling technologies.

Design of Complex Engineering Systems Using Multiagent Coordination

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolás F. Soria ◽  
Mitchell K. Colby ◽  
Irem Y. Tumer ◽  
Christopher Hoyle ◽  
Kagan Tumer
Keyword(s):  
Autonomous Agents ◽  
Engineering Systems ◽  
Coordination Problem ◽  
Design Decisions ◽  
Multiagent Coordination ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Potential System ◽  
Complex Engineering ◽  
System States ◽  
Complex Engineering Systems

In complex engineering systems, complexity may arise by design, or as a by-product of the system’s operation. In either case, the root cause of complexity is the same: the unpredictable manner in which interactions among components modify system behavior. Traditionally, two different approaches are used to handle such complexity: (i) a centralized design approach where the impacts of all potential system states and behaviors resulting from design decisions must be accurately modeled; and (ii) an approach based on externally legislating design decisions, which avoid such difficulties, but at the cost of expensive external mechanisms to determine trade-offs among competing design decisions. Our approach is a hybrid of the two approaches, providing a method in which decisions can be reconciled without the need for either detailed interaction models or external mechanisms. A key insight of this approach is that complex system design, undertaken with respect to a variety of design objectives, is fundamentally similar to the multiagent coordination problem, where component decisions and their interactions lead to global behavior. The design of a race car is used as the case study. The results of this paper demonstrate that a team of autonomous agents using a cooperative coevolutionary algorithm can effectively design a Formula racing vehicle.

A technique to assess the changeability of complex engineering systems

2013 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 477-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin C.Y. Koh ◽  
Nicholas H.M. Caldwell ◽  
P. John Clarkson
Keyword(s):  
Engineering Systems ◽  
Complex Engineering ◽  
Complex Engineering Systems

Robust Concurrent Concept Selection and System Synthesis

1994 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Chen ◽  
Janet K. Allen ◽  
Farrokh Mistree
Keyword(s):  
Irrigation System ◽  
Preliminary Design ◽  
Continuous Variables ◽  
Engineering Systems ◽  
Concept Selection ◽  
Complex Engineering ◽  
Solar Powered ◽  
System Variables ◽  
Complex Engineering Systems

Abstract In this paper, we introduce a concurrent approach to preliminary system design by using a modification of Taguchi’s method of robust design. It is possible to model interactions among component concept selections and synthesis of system variables. This approach also can improve computational efficiency and provide more design knowledge for the conceptual design of complex engineering systems. This technique is effective in dealing with both discrete and continuous variables simultaneously in design. We illustrate our approach by the preliminary design of a solar powered irrigation system. The selections of critical component concepts are integrated with the determination of system variables, i.e., the thermodynamic operating parameters.

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