Intelligent Risk Assessment for Pipeline Third-Party Interference

2011 ◽  
Vol 134 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinqiu Hu ◽  
Laibin Zhang ◽  
Wei Liang ◽  
Cunjie Guo

In petroleum industry, pipeline is singled out as it is the safest and the most economically viable means of transporting large quantities of oil and natural gas. However, accidents to pipelines because of the third-party interference have been recorded. An intelligent risk assessment approach is proposed to estimate the risk of each pipeline section and classify various risk patterns, using self-organization mapping neural network theory, which incorporates the factors of pipeline laying conditions, historical damage records, safety-related actions, management measures, and the environment around the underling pipeline. A field case study of Shaanxi–Beijing gas pipeline in China is undertook so that the effectiveness of the proposed risk pattern classification approach could be verified, which helps safety engineer to take effective and accurate safety measures according to different risk patterns.

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
David G. Dodge ◽  
Anna M. Engel ◽  
Robyn L. Prueitt ◽  
Michael K. Peterson ◽  
Julie E. Goodman

Author(s):  
Gencer Erdogan ◽  
Phu H. Nguyen ◽  
Fredrik Seehusen ◽  
Ketil Stølen ◽  
Jon Hofstad ◽  
...  

Risk-driven testing and test-driven risk assessment are two strongly related approaches, though the latter is less explored. This chapter presents an evaluation of a test-driven security risk assessment approach to assess how useful testing is for validating and correcting security risk models. Based on the guidelines for case study research, two industrial case studies were analyzed: a multilingual financial web application and a mobile financial application. In both case studies, the testing yielded new information, which was not found in the risk assessment phase. In the first case study, new vulnerabilities were found that resulted in an update of the likelihood values of threat scenarios and risks in the risk model. New vulnerabilities were also identified and added to the risk model in the second case study. These updates led to more accurate risk models, which indicate that the testing was indeed useful for validating and correcting the risk models.


Author(s):  
Emad Mohamed ◽  
Nima Gerami Seresht ◽  
Stephen Hague ◽  
Adam Chehouri ◽  
Simaan M. AbouRizk

Although many quantitative risk assessment models have been proposed in literature, their use in construction practice remain limited due to a lack of domain-specific models, tools, and application examples. This is especially true in wind farm construction, where the state-of-the-art integrated Monte Carlo simulation and critical path method (MCS-CPM) risk assessment approach has yet to be demonstrated. The present case study is the first reported application of the MCS-CPM method for risk assessment in wind farm construction and is the first case study to consider correlations between cost and schedule impacts of risk factors using copulas. MCS-CPM provided reasonable risk assessment results for a wind farm project, and its use in practice is recommended. Aimed at facilitating the practical application of quantitative risk assessment methods, this case study provides a much-needed analytical generalization of MCS-CPM, offering application examples, discussion of expected results, and recommendations to wind farm construction practitioners.


2014 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 261-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Béchaux ◽  
Marco Zeilmaker ◽  
Mathilde Merlo ◽  
Bas Bokkers ◽  
Amélie Crépet

2005 ◽  
Vol 168 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 187-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabrina Saponaro ◽  
Elena Sezenna ◽  
Luca Bonomo

1999 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 606 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.T. Stoklosa

Stoklosa Engineering has been working with the petroleum industry to develop an environmental risk management methodology that can be generally applied to petroleum industry activities. In particular, the methodology is for assessing and managing ecological risk in sensitive marine environments.This paper introduces a management and technical methodology for the risk assessment process that has been applied to planning scenarios for the Gorgon LNG Project. The methodology has evolved from earlier efforts by petroleum operators and government in Western Australia to quantify ecological risk. The principles of Standards Australia risk management publications, State risk management initiatives and international approaches have been preserved in the methodology.The basis for a quantitative analysis of the likelihood of an incident is described, with a qualitative or semiquantitative analysis of the severity of the potential consequences. The technical approach adopts the principles of AS/NZS 4360 for risk management, and characterises risk for decision makers in an unambiguous manner. The methodology leads to a clear understanding of the benefits of risk management, and allows proponents the opportunity to reduce risk to acceptable levels. The risks of development should be interpreted in the context of naturally occurring hazards to environmental systems (e.g. cyclones and coral spawning slicks), human activities (e.g. recreation, fisheries and aquaculture), and the natural variability of ecosystems.The Gorgon LNG Project case study characterises risk in terms of credible incident scenarios and baseline operational activities from project planning scenarios. The inputs to the risk assessment are release scenarios, fate and transport modelling, response mechanisms in sensitive species, and recovery mechanisms following exposure. The methodology can be broadly applied to offshore and onshore development projects and environmental management programs, as it is presented as a repeatable process that can incorporate various types of risk analysis methods.


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