Probabilistic Models for Wind Turbine and Wind Farm Performance

2011 ◽  
Vol 133 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay R. Arwade ◽  
Matthew A. Lackner ◽  
Mircea D. Grigoriu

A Markov model for the performance of wind turbines is developed that accounts for component reliability and the effect of wind speed and turbine capacity on component reliability. The model is calibrated to the observed performance of offshore turbines in the north of Europe, and uses wind records obtained from the coast of the state of Maine in the northeast United States in simulation. Simulation results indicate availability of 0.91, with mean residence time in the operating state that is nearly exponential and has a mean of 42 days. Using a power curve typical for a 2.5 MW turbine, the capacity factor is found to be beta distributed and highly non-Gaussian. Noticeable seasonal variation in turbine and farm performance metrics are observed and result from seasonal fluctuations in the characteristics of the wind record. The input parameters to the Markov model, as defined in this paper, are limited to those for which field data are available for calibration. Nevertheless, the framework of the model is readily adaptable to include, for example: site specific conditions; turbine details; wake induced loading effects; component redundancies; and dependencies. An on-off model is introduced as an approximation to the stochastic process describing the operating state of a wind turbine, and from this on-off process an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (O–U) process is developed as a model for the availability of a wind farm. The O–U model agrees well with Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of the Markov model and is accepted as a valid approximation. Using the O–U model in design and management of large wind farms will be advantageous because it can provide statistics of wind farm performance without resort to intensive large scale MC simulation.

Author(s):  
Xu Pei-Zhen ◽  
Lu Yong-Geng ◽  
Cao Xi-Min

Background: Over the past few years, the subsynchronous oscillation (SSO) caused by the grid-connected wind farm had a bad influence on the stable operation of the system and has now become a bottleneck factor restricting the efficient utilization of wind power. How to mitigate and suppress the phenomenon of SSO of wind farms has become the focus of power system research. Methods: This paper first analyzes the SSO of different types of wind turbines, including squirrelcage induction generator based wind turbine (SCIG-WT), permanent magnet synchronous generator- based wind turbine (PMSG-WT), and doubly-fed induction generator based wind turbine (DFIG-WT). Then, the mechanisms of different types of SSO are proposed with the aim to better understand SSO in large-scale wind integrated power systems, and the main analytical methods suitable for studying the SSO of wind farms are summarized. Results: On the basis of results, using additional damping control suppression methods to solve SSO caused by the flexible power transmission devices and the wind turbine converter is recommended. Conclusion: The current development direction of the SSO of large-scale wind farm grid-connected systems is summarized and the current challenges and recommendations for future research and development are discussed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 869 ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Foti ◽  
Xiaolei Yang ◽  
Lian Shen ◽  
Fotis Sotiropoulos

Wake meandering, a phenomenon of large-scale lateral oscillation of the wake, has significant effects on the velocity deficit and turbulence intensities in wind turbine wakes. Previous studies of a single turbine (Kang et al., J. Fluid. Mech., vol. 774, 2014, pp. 374–403; Foti et al., Phys. Rev. Fluids, vol. 1 (4), 2016, 044407) have shown that the turbine nacelle induces large-scale coherent structures in the near field that can have a significant effect on wake meandering. However, whether nacelle-induced coherent structures at the turbine scale impact the emergent turbine wake dynamics at the wind farm scale is still an open question of both fundamental and practical significance. We take on this question by carrying out large-eddy simulation of atmospheric turbulent flow over the Horns Rev wind farm using actuator surface parameterisations of the turbines without and with the turbine nacelle taken into account. While the computed mean turbine power output and the mean velocity field away from the nacelle wake are similar for both cases, considerable differences are found in the turbine power fluctuations and turbulence intensities. Furthermore, wake meandering amplitude and area defined by wake meanders, which indicates the turbine wake unsteadiness, are larger for the simulations with the turbine nacelle. The wake influenced area computed from the velocity deficit profiles, which describes the spanwise extent of the turbine wakes, and the spanwise growth rate, on the other hand, are smaller for some rows in the simulation with the nacelle model. Our work shows that incorporating the nacelle model in wind farm scale simulations is critical for accurate predictions of quantities that affect the wind farm levelised cost of energy, such as the dynamics of wake meandering and the dynamic loads on downwind turbines.


Author(s):  
Daniel Buhagiar ◽  
Tonio Sant

Offshore wind farms are presently facing numerous technical challenges that are affecting their viability. High failure rates of expensive nacelle-based electronics and gearboxes are particularly problematic. On-going research is investigating the possibility of shifting to a seawater-based hydraulic power transmission, whereby wind turbines pressurise seawater that is transmitted across a high-pressure pipeline network. A 9-turbine hydraulic wind farm with three different configurations is simulated in the present work and a previously developed method for open-loop pressure control of a single turbine has been adapted for this multiple-turbine scenario. A conceptual quasi-constant-pressure accumulator is also included in the model. This system is directly integrated within each hydraulic wind turbine and it allows the output power from the wind farm to be scheduled on an hourly basis. The shift in control methodology when integrating storage is illustrated in the present work. Simulation results indicate a strong relationship between hydraulic performance attributes and the specific wind turbine array layout. The beneficial effects of storage can also be observed, particularly in smoothing the output power and rendering it more useable. Finally, the energy yields from 24-hour simulations of the 9-turbine wind farms are calculated. Integrated storage leads to a slight increase in yield since it eliminates bursts of high flow, which induce higher frictional losses in the pipeline network.


2015 ◽  
Vol 737 ◽  
pp. 199-203
Author(s):  
Shao Hong Tsai ◽  
Yuan Kang Wu ◽  
Ching Yin Lee ◽  
Wen Ta Tsai

Modern wind turbine technology has been a great improvement over the past couple decades, leading to large scale wind power penetration. The increasing penetration of wind power resulted in emphasizing the importance of reliable and secure operation of power systems, especially in a weak power system. In this paper, the main wind turbine control schemes, the wind penetration levels and wind farm dynamic behavior for grid code compliance were investigated in the Penghu wind power system, a weak isolated power system.


Acoustics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Hansen ◽  
Kristy Hansen

This review is focussed on large-scale, horizontal-axis upwind turbines. Vertical-axis turbines are not considered here as they are not sufficiently efficient to be deployed in the commercial generation of electricity. Recent developments in horizontal-axis wind turbine noise research are summarised and topics that are pertinent to the problem, but are yet to be investigated, are explored and suggestions for future research are offered. The major portion of recent and current research on wind turbine noise generation, propagation and its effects on people and animals is being undertaken by groups in Europe, UK, USA, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Considerable progress has been made in understanding wind turbine noise generation and propagation as well as the effect of wind farm noise on people, birds and animals. However, much remains to be done to answer many of the questions for which answers are still uncertain. In addition to community concerns about the effect of wind farm noise on people and how best to regulate wind farm noise and check installed wind farms for compliance, there is considerable interest from turbine manufacturers in developing quieter rotors, with the intention of allowing wind farm installations to be closer to populated areas. The purpose of this paper is to summarise recent and current wind farm noise research work and the research questions that remain to be addressed or are in the process of being addressed. Topics that are the subject of on-going research are discussed briefly and references to recent and current work are included.


Author(s):  
M. Zendehbad ◽  
N. Chokani ◽  
R. S. Abhari

Large-scale (that is over the kilometre scale of a whole wind farm) and small-scale (over the metre scale of an individual wind turbine) wind flow measurements are made with a mobile-based LIDAR system. The large-scale measurements detail the multiple wakes in the wind farm, including both single and double wakes, that result in up to 70% less power generation for a given wind direction, and 2.5% loss of the wind farm’s annual energy yield. The small-scale measurements show that there is a non-uniform work extraction of the turbine across the vertical extent of the wind turbine rotor. This non-uniform work extraction is accompanied by an upward pitching of the flow that is as much as 50° immediately downstream of the turbine and reduces to 10° two diameters downstream. Measurements with the mobile-based LIDAR system are made in both complex and flat terrains. A comparison of the wake profiles show that whereas in complex terrain the profiles are self-similar up to two-and-half rotor diameters downstream, this is not the case in flat terrain. It is shown that these measurements, which are made at the full-scale Reynolds number in the field, may be useful to support the development of wake flow prediction tools.


Author(s):  
Souma Chowdhury ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Achille Messac ◽  
Luciano Castillo

The development of large scale wind farms that can produce energy at a cost comparable to that of other conventional energy resources presents significant challenges to today’s wind energy industry. The consideration of the key design and environmental factors that influence the performance of a wind farm is a crucial part of the solution to this challenge. In this paper, we develop a methodology to account for the configuration of the farm land (length-to-breadth ratio and North-South-East-West orientation) within the scope of wind farm optimization. This approach appropriately captures the correlation between the (i) land configuration, (ii) the farm layout, and (iii) the selection of turbines-types. Simultaneous optimization of the farm layout and turbine selection is performed to minimize the Cost of Energy (COE), for a set of sample land configurations. The optimized COE and farm efficiency are then represented as functions of the land aspect ratio and the land orientation. To this end, we apply a recently developed response surface method known as the Reliability-Based Hybrid Functions. The overall wind farm design methodology is applied to design a 25MW farm in North Dakota. This case study provides helpful insights into the influence of the land configuration on the optimum farm performance that can be obtained for a particular site.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2319
Author(s):  
Hyun-Goo Kim ◽  
Jin-Young Kim

This study analyzed the performance decline of wind turbine with age using the SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) data and the short-term in situ LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) measurements taken at the Shinan wind farm located on the coast of Bigeumdo Island in the southwestern sea of South Korea. Existing methods have generally attempted to estimate performance aging through long-term trend analysis of a normalized capacity factor in which wind speed variability is calibrated. However, this study proposes a new method using SCADA data for wind farms whose total operation period is short (less than a decade). That is, the trend of power output deficit between predicted and actual power generation was analyzed in order to estimate performance aging, wherein a theoretically predicted level of power generation was calculated by substituting a free stream wind speed projecting to a wind turbine into its power curve. To calibrate a distorted wind speed measurement in a nacelle anemometer caused by the wake effect resulting from the rotation of wind-turbine blades and the shape of the nacelle, the free stream wind speed was measured using LiDAR remote sensing as the reference data; and the nacelle transfer function, which converts nacelle wind speed into free stream wind speed, was derived. A four-year analysis of the Shinan wind farm showed that the rate of performance aging of the wind turbines was estimated to be −0.52%p/year.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 248
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Cottura ◽  
Riccardo Caradonna ◽  
Alberto Ghigo ◽  
Riccardo Novo ◽  
Giovanni Bracco ◽  
...  

Wind power is emerging as one of the most sustainable and low-cost options for energy production. Far-offshore floating wind turbines are attractive in view of exploiting high wind availability sites while minimizing environmental and landscape impact. In the last few years, some offshore floating wind farms were deployed in Northern Europe for technology validation, with very promising results. At present time, however, no offshore wind farm installations have been developed in the Mediterranean Sea. The aim of this work is to comprehensively model an offshore floating wind turbine and examine the behavior resulting from a wide spectrum of sea and wind states typical of the Mediterranean Sea. The flexible and accessible in-house model developed for this purpose is compared with the reference model FAST v8.16 for verifying its reliability. Then, a simulation campaign is carried out to estimate the wind turbine LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy). Based on this, the best substructure is chosen and the convenience of the investment is evaluated.


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