Statistical Forecasting of Trends in Tubular Pressure Part Forced Outage Rates for Fossil Boilers

Statistical models for calculating age-dependent component failure rates and system unavailabilities have been combined into a flexible procedure to forecast trends in tubular pressure part forced outage rates for fossil boilers as a function of their ages. These models have been computerized, and the forecasting procedure has been applied to predicting trends at six fossil units of a specific utility. The analytic procedure is described, and its application to the example study is discussed.