Statistical Extrapolation Methods for Estimating Wind Turbine Extreme Loads

2008 ◽  
Vol 130 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Ragan ◽  
Lance Manuel
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Field Data ◽  
International Electrotechnical Commission ◽  
Threshold Method ◽  
Extreme Loads ◽  
Peak Over Threshold ◽  
Peak Over Threshold Method ◽  
Superior Approach ◽  
Utility Scale

With the introduction of the third edition of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Standard 61400-1, designers of wind turbines are now explicitly required, in one of the prescribed load cases, to use statistical extrapolation techniques to determine nominal design loads. In this study, we use field data from a utility-scale 1.5MW turbine sited in Lamar, Colorado to compare the performance of several alternative techniques for statistical extrapolation of rotor and tower loads—these include the method of global maxima, the peak-over-threshold method, and a four-moment process model approach. Using each of these three options, 50-year return loads are estimated for the selected wind turbine. We conclude that the peak-over-threshold method is the superior approach, and we examine important details intrinsic to this method, including selection of the level of the threshold to be employed, the parametric distribution used in fitting, and the assumption of statistical independence between successive peaks. While we are primarily interested in the prediction of extreme loads, we are also interested in assessing the uncertainty in our predictions as a function of the amount of data used. Towards this end, we first obtain estimates of extreme loads associated with target reliability levels by making use of all of the data available, and then we obtain similar estimates using only subsets of the data. From these separate estimates, conclusions are made regarding what constitutes a sufficient amount of data upon which to base a statistical extrapolation. While this study makes use of field data in addressing statistical load extrapolation issues, the findings should also be useful in simulation-based attempts at deriving wind turbine design load levels where similar questions regarding extrapolation techniques, distribution choices, and amount of data needed are just as relevant.

Assessment of Load Extrapolation Methods for Wind Turbines

2011 ◽  
Vol 133 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Stensgaard Toft ◽  
John Dalsgaard Sørensen ◽  
Dick Veldkamp
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Solution ◽  
Gaussian Process ◽  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Threshold Method ◽  
Peak Over Threshold ◽  
Peak Over Threshold Method

In the present paper, methods for statistical load extrapolation of wind-turbine response are studied using a stationary Gaussian process model, which has approximately the same spectral properties as the response for the out-of-plane bending moment of a wind-turbine blade. For a Gaussian process, an approximate analytical solution for the distribution of the peaks is given by Rice. In the present paper, three different methods for statistical load extrapolation are compared with the analytical solution for one mean wind speed. The methods considered are global maxima, block maxima, and the peak over threshold method with two different threshold values. The comparisons show that the goodness of fit for the local distribution has a significant influence on the results, but the peak over threshold method with a threshold value on the mean plus 1.4 standard deviations generally gives the best results. By considering Gaussian processes for 12 mean wind speeds, the “fitting before aggregation” and “aggregation before fitting” approaches are studied. The results show that the fitting before aggregation approach gives the best results.

scholarly journals Study on reservoir time-varying design flood of inflow based on Poisson process with time-dependent parameters

2018 ◽  
Vol 379 ◽  
pp. 119-123
Author(s):  
Jiqing Li ◽  
Jing Huang ◽  
Jianchang Li
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Process ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Threshold Method ◽  
Peak Over Threshold ◽  
Peak Over Threshold Method ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. The time-varying design flood can make full use of the measured data, which can provide the reservoir with the basis of both flood control and operation scheduling. This paper adopts peak over threshold method for flood sampling in unit periods and Poisson process with time-dependent parameters model for simulation of reservoirs time-varying design flood. Considering the relationship between the model parameters and hypothesis, this paper presents the over-threshold intensity, the fitting degree of Poisson distribution and the design flood parameters are the time-varying design flood unit period and threshold discriminant basis, deduced Longyangxia reservoir time-varying design flood process at 9 kinds of design frequencies. The time-varying design flood of inflow is closer to the reservoir actual inflow conditions, which can be used to adjust the operating water level in flood season and make plans for resource utilization of flood in the basin.

scholarly journals Assessment of wind turbine component loads under yaw-offset conditions

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 173-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rick Damiani ◽  
Scott Dana ◽  
Jennifer Annoni ◽  
Paul Fleming ◽  
Jason Roadman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Analytical Treatment ◽  
Yaw Control ◽  
Extreme Loads ◽  
Turbine Component ◽  
Speed Regime ◽  
Aeroelastic Simulations ◽  
Utility Scale

Abstract. Renewed interest in yaw control for wind turbine and power plants for wake redirection and load mitigation demands a clear understanding of the effects of running with skewed inflow. In this paper, we investigate the physics of yawed operations, building up the complexity from a simplified analytical treatment to more complex aeroelastic simulations. Results in terms of damage equivalent loads (DELs) and extreme loads under misaligned conditions of operation are compared to data collected from an instrumented, utility-scale wind turbine. The analysis shows that multiple factors are responsible for the DELs of the various components and that airfoil aerodynamics, elastic characteristics of the rotor, and turbulence intensities are the primary drivers. Both fatigue and extreme loads are observed to have relatively complex trends with yaw offsets, which can change depending on the wind-speed regime. Good agreement is found between predicted and measured trends for both fatigue and ultimate loads.

scholarly journals Analysis of extreme hydrological Events on THE danube using the Peak Over Threshold method

2010 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronika Bačová-Mitková ◽  
Milan Onderka
Keyword(s):  
Danube River ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Threshold Method ◽  
Series Length ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Peak Over Threshold ◽  
Peak Over Threshold Method ◽  
Daily Discharge ◽  
Extreme Hydrological Events

Analysis of extreme hydrological Events on THE danube using the Peak Over Threshold methodThe Peak Over Threshold Method (POT) was used as an alternative technique to the traditional analysis of annual discharge maxima of the Danube River. The POT method was applied to a time-series of daily discharge values covering a period of 60 years (1931-1990) at the following gauge stations: Achleiten, Kienstock, Wien, Bratislava and Nagymaros. The first part of the paper presents the use of the POT method and how it was applied to daily discharges. All mean daily discharges exceeding a defined threshold were considered in the POT analysis. Based on the POT waves independence criteria the maximum daily discharge data were selected. Two theoretical log-normal (LN) and Log-Pearson III (LP3) distributions were used to calculate the probability of exceeding annual maximum discharges. Performance of the POT method was compared to the theoretical distributions (LN, LP3). The influence of the data series length on the estimation of theN-year discharges by POT method was carried out too. Therefore, with regard to later regulations along the Danube channel bank the 40, 20 and 10-year time data series were chosen in early of the 60-year period and second analysed time data series were selected from the end of the 60-year period. Our results suggest that the POT method can provide adequate and comparable estimates ofN-year discharges for more stations with short temporal coverage.

scholarly journals Assessment of Wind Turbine Component Loads Under Yaw-Offset Conditions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rick Damiani ◽  
Scott Dana ◽  
Jennifer Annoni ◽  
Paul Fleming ◽  
Jason Roadman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Analytical Treatment ◽  
Yaw Control ◽  
Extreme Loads ◽  
Turbine Component ◽  
Speed Regime ◽  
Aeroelastic Simulations ◽  
Utility Scale

Abstract. Renewed interest in yaw control for wind turbine and power plants for wake redirection and load mitigation demands a clear understanding of the effects of running with skewed inflow. In this paper, we investigate the physics of yawed operations, building up the complexity from a simplified analytical treatment to more complex aeroelastic simulations. Results in terms of damage equivalent loads (DELs) and extreme loads under operating, misaligned conditions are compared to data collected from an instrumented, utility-scale wind turbine. The analysis shows that multiple factors are responsible for the DELs of the various components, and that airfoil aerodynamics, elastic characteristics of the rotor, and turbulence intensities are the primary drivers. Both fatigue and extreme loads are observed to have relatively complex trends with yaw offsets, which can change depending on the wind-speed regime. Good agreement is found between predicted and measured trends for both fatigue and ultimate loads.

Simulation of Offshore Wind Turbine Response for Extreme Limit States

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Agarwal ◽  
L. Manuel
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Response Variability ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Offshore Wind Turbine ◽  
Threshold Method ◽  
Conditional Response ◽  
Extreme Loads ◽  
Design Loads

When interest is in estimating long-term design loads for an offshore wind turbine using simulation, statistical extrapolation is the method of choice. While the method itself is rather well-established, simulation effort can be intractable if uncertainty in predicted extreme loads and efficiency in the selected extrapolation procedure are not specifically addressed. Our aim in this study is to address these questions in predicting blade and tower extreme loads based on stochastic response simulations of a 5 MW offshore turbine. We illustrate the use of the peak-over-threshold method to predict long-term extreme loads. To derive these long-term loads, we employ an efficient inverse reliability approach which is shown to predict reasonably accurate long-term loads when compared to the more expensive direct integration of conditional load distributions for different environmental (wind and wave) conditions. Fundamental to the inverse reliability approach is the issue of whether turbine response variability conditional on environmental conditions is modeled in detail or whether only gross conditional statistics of this conditional response are included. We derive design loads for both these cases, and demonstrate that careful inclusion of response variability not only greatly influences long-term design load predictions but it also identifies different design environmental conditions that bring about these long-term loads compared to when response variability is only approximately modeled. As we shall see, for this turbine, a major source of response variability for both the blade and tower arises from blade pitch control actions due to which a large number of simulations is required to obtain stable distribution tails for the turbine loads studied.

Predictions of Extreme Values of Significant Wave Height

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Guedes Soares ◽  
R. G. Ferreira ◽  
Manuel G. Scotto
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Value Theory ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Threshold Method ◽  
Peak Over Threshold ◽  
Peak Over Threshold Method ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Quantile Estimates

This paper provides an overview of different methods of extrapolating environmental data to low probability levels based on the extreme value theory. It discusses the Annual Maxima method and the Peak Over Threshold method, using unified terminology and notation. Furthermore, it describes a method based on the r largest order statistics that has the advantage of providing more accurate parameters and quantile estimates than the Annual Maxima method. Several examples illustrate the methodology and reveal strengths and weaknesses of the various approaches.

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