An Iceberg Collision Reliability Model Incorporating Hydrodynamic Effects

1990 ◽  
Vol 112 (4) ◽  
pp. 364-369
Author(s):  
M. Isaacson ◽  
K. A. McTaggart

A probabilistic model is developed for the selection of a design iceberg collision event with a fixed offshore structure. The model has been formulated such that input parameters can be obtained from available iceberg surveillance and wave climate data. Once input data for a given site are obtained, probabilities of exceedance for various kinetic energy levels are estimated using a second-order reliability method. A key feature of the model is its incorporation of wave-induced motions and added mass in the evaluate of iceberg kinetic energy.

1990 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 329-337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Isaacson ◽  
Kevin McTaggart

This paper examines various hydrodynamic effects which should be considered when analyzing iceberg collisions with a fixed structure. Iceberg added mass is among the hydrodynamic parameters that must be known to evaluate collision severity. Effective added mass is shown to vary with collision duration and recommendations are made for the selection of added masses to be used in iceberg collision design. Iceberg impact velocities are influenced by waves and currents, which can both be significantly influenced by the presence of a large structure. Wave-driven iceberg drift motions are shown to be more sensitive than current-driven motions to the presence of a structure. The contribution of wave-induced oscillatory motions to impact velocity is also discussed. Key words: added mass, hydrodynamics, ice impact, icebergs, ocean engineering, offshore structures.


Author(s):  
Mauro Costa de Oliveira

The selection of the best heading considering the wave induced motion behavior is a design decision that should be taken in the early stages of the field development. Particularly for FPSOs with spread mooring pattern, that are not weathervane, this can bring the reduction of angular motions and accelerations, leading to better operational conditions, reduced wave induced loading acting on the FPSO deck structures and over the risers. The procedure adopted to select an optimized heading, is based in the analysis of several cases covering all the wave environment of Santos Basin, Offshore Brazil, and assessing parameters like roll motion and riser connection accelerations in order to select the optimum heading range. This problem has several input sea states, once the wave climate is defined by the extreme contour curves for the 100 year data. Another aspect is related to the combination of the FPSO loading conditions, which add more variables to the problem. A search algorithm have been implemented to enable the comparison of a large number of statistical results and to determine an adequate heading for the FPSOs.


2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4511-4523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarandeep S. Kalra ◽  
Alfredo Aretxabaleta ◽  
Pranay Seshadri ◽  
Neil K. Ganju ◽  
Alexis Beudin

Abstract. Coastal hydrodynamics can be greatly affected by the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. The effect of vegetation has been incorporated into the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system. The vegetation implementation includes the plant-induced three-dimensional drag, in-canopy wave-induced streaming, and the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the presence of vegetation. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of the flow and wave dynamics to vegetation parameters using Sobol' indices and a least squares polynomial approach referred to as the Effective Quadratures method. This method reduces the number of simulations needed for evaluating Sobol' indices and provides a robust, practical, and efficient approach for the parameter sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of Sobol' indices shows that kinetic energy, turbulent kinetic energy, and water level changes are affected by plant stem density, height, and, to a lesser degree, diameter. Wave dissipation is mostly dependent on the variation in plant stem density. Performing sensitivity analyses for the vegetation module in COAWST provides guidance to optimize efforts and reduce exploration of parameter space for future observational and modeling work.


2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (24) ◽  
pp. 6710-6723 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason E. Smerdon ◽  
Alexey Kaplan ◽  
Diana Chang

Abstract The regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) method has been used in recent studies to derive climate field reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the last millennium. Original pseudoproxy experiments that tested RegEM [with ridge regression regularization (RegEM-Ridge)] standardized the input data in a way that improved the performance of the reconstruction method, but included data from the reconstruction interval for estimates of the mean and standard deviation of the climate field—information that is not available in real-world reconstruction problems. When standardizations are confined to the calibration interval only, pseudoproxy reconstructions performed with RegEM-Ridge suffer from warm biases and variance losses. Only cursory explanations of this so-called standardization sensitivity of RegEM-Ridge have been published, but they have suggested that the selection of the regularization (ridge) parameter by means of minimizing the generalized cross validation (GCV) function is the source of the effect. The origin of the standardization sensitivity is more thoroughly investigated herein and is shown not to be associated with the selection of the ridge parameter; sets of derived reconstructions reveal that GCV-selected ridge parameters are minimally different for reconstructions standardized either over both the reconstruction and calibration interval or over the calibration interval only. While GCV may select ridge parameters that are different from those that precisely minimize the error in pseudoproxy reconstructions, RegEM reconstructions performed with truly optimized ridge parameters are not significantly different from those that use GCV-selected ridge parameters. The true source of the standardization sensitivity is attributable to the inclusion or exclusion of additional information provided by the reconstruction interval, namely, the mean and standard deviation fields computed for the complete modeled dataset. These fields are significantly different from those for the calibration period alone because of the violation of a standard EM assumption that missing values are missing at random in typical paleoreconstruction problems; climate data are predominantly missing in the preinstrumental period when the mean climate was significantly colder than the mean of the instrumental period. The origin of the standardization sensitivity therefore is not associated specifically with RegEM-Ridge, and more recent attempts to regularize the EM algorithm using truncated total least squares could theoretically also be susceptible to the problems affecting RegEM-Ridge. Nevertheless, the principal failure of RegEM-Ridge arises because of a poor initial estimate of the mean field, and therefore leaves open the possibility that alternative methods may perform better.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chinglen Meetei Tensubam ◽  
Alexander V. Babanin

<p>The role of surface ocean waves becomes substantial in the upper ocean layer mixing. Due to turbulence induced by the surface waves (both broken and unbroken waves), the upper ocean mixing is enhanced, and important upper ocean parameters are affected such as lowering of sea surface temperature (SST), deepening of mixed layer depth (MLD) and most interestingly, the changes in oceanic biogeochemistry. The main objective of this study is to analyze the effect of wave induced turbulence on oceanic biogeochemistry such as the supply and distribution of nutrients to tiny plants in the ocean called phytoplanktons, and how it affects their concentrations. Marine phytoplanktons formed the basis of marine ecosystem which accounts for about 45 percent of global net primary productivity and play an important part in global carbon cycle. The population of phytoplanktons depends mainly on nutrients (both micro and macro), availability of sunlight and grazing organisms. For this study, we use global coupled ocean-sea ice model ACCESS-OM2 with biogeochemical module called WOMBAT to estimate the effect of wave induced turbulence and study the difference between ‘with waves’ and ‘without waves’ effect on oceanic biogeochemistry. The same effect of wave induced turbulence on oceanic biogeochemistry are also studied by incorporating the change in wave climate such as increase in significant wave height and wind speed. From the investigation of merged satellite ocean color data from ESA’s GlobColour project for the period of 23 years between 1997 and 2019, it was found that chlorophyll-a (Chl-a, an index of phytoplankton biomass) concentration showed increasing trend of 0.015 mg/m3 globally and 0.062 mg/m3 in the Southern Ocean (SO) for the study period with p-value less than 0.01. It was also found that most of the increasing trends are shown spatially in the open ocean and decreasing trend in the coastal regions during the study period.</p>


2022 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Masashi Takagi ◽  
Junichi Ninomiya ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Tomoya Shimura ◽  
Takuya Miyashita

1996 ◽  
pp. 659-662
Author(s):  
Kanji Kuba ◽  
Tadashi Sugihara
Keyword(s):  

2019 ◽  
Vol 279 ◽  
pp. 03007
Author(s):  
Ján Hollý ◽  
Adela Palková

The issue of climate change is undeniably demonstrating its presence. Consequently, there is a rising need to be prepared for upcoming threats by any means possible. One of the precautions includes obtaining the information characterizing the expected impact of global warming. This will allow authorities and other stakeholders to act accordingly in time. The article presents the assessment of the extent of impact of energy-related construction solutions in dwelling type unit situated in Central Europe region under the 21st century climate conditions. The findings represent eventual demands of energy for cooling and heating and its prospective savings. This is conducted by consecutively and automatically changing the parameters in individual simulation runs. As a basis for simulations, regionally scaled weather data of three different climate areas are used. These data are based on the emission scenarios by IPCC and are reaching to the year 2100. The selection of assessed parameters and climate data application are briefly explained in the article. The results of simulations are evaluated and recommended solutions are stated in regard to the specific energy-related construction changes. The aim is to successfully mitigate and adapt to the climate change phenomenon.


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