Uncertainty Analysis in Quantitative Risk Assessment

1996 ◽  
Vol 118 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Quin ◽  
G. E. O. Widera
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
The Other ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Criticality Analysis

Of the quantitative approaches applied to inservice inspection, failure modes, effects,criticality analysis (FMECA) methodology is recommended. FMECA can provide a straightforward illustration of how risk can be used to prioritize components for inspection (ASME, 1991). But, at present, it has two limitations. One is that it cannot be used in the situation where components have multiple failure modes. The other is that it cannot be used in the situation where the uncertainties in the data of components have nonuniform distributions. In engineering practice, these two situations exist in many cases. In this paper, two methods based on fuzzy set theory are presented to treat these problems. The methods proposed here can be considered as a supplement to FMECA, thus extending its range of applicability.

Risk Assessment of Enterprise Merger and Acquisition Based on Event Tree Method and Fuzzy Set Theory

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 4819-4825 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guang-Rong Li ◽  
Chun-He Li ◽  
Xiu-Hong Niu ◽  
Li-Ping Yang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Merger And Acquisition ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Tree Method

A Computerized Method for Delay Risk Assessment Based on Fuzzy Set Theory using MS Project™

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 2714-2725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cenk Budayan ◽  
Irem Dikmen ◽  
M. Talat Birgonul ◽  
Aydın Ghaziani
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Computerized Method

Study on Stability of Rock at Reservoir Banks Slop Based on AHP

2012 ◽  
Vol 204-208 ◽  
pp. 2309-2317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhi Jun Zhou ◽  
Han Liang ◽  
Xiao Dong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Slope Stability ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Stability Evaluation ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Evaluation Indexes ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluations ◽  
Research On Application

The paper aims to present the authors’ research on application of engineering fuzzy set theory analysis to reservoir ranks rock slop stability evaluation by using analytic hierarchy processing (AHP). Many methods, which used to analysis highway slope stability, are compared in the paper. On the basis of research on the general slope stability evaluation methods, lots of fuzzy factors of stability evaluation for highway slope are researched and fuzzy comparison matrix model is established. Correspondence relationship between mood operator and fuzzy value are determined. Evaluation indexes and grading standards are identified on the basis of engineering practice. The weight of every index is obtained by using analytic hierarchy processing and the method of Ridge-type distribution, which the method of combining with the bigger the more excellent and the smaller the more excellent. Engineering fuzzy set theory is used to make a comprehensive evaluations, overall evaluation of the highway slope stability is obtained according to the principle of maximum degree of subjection and the result of subjection degree vector. Slope stability evaluation of AN-SHAN Expressway is analyzed with analytical hierarchy process. Evaluation results provide a basis for the progress of the project, and the project carried out smoothly with the guidance of it. The results show that the model makes slope stability evaluation more comprehensive, scientific and rational.

Risk Analysis of Propulsion System based on Similarity Measure and Weighted Fuzzy Risk Priority Number in FMEA

2018 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hang Zhou ◽  
Yuan-Jian Yang ◽  
Hong-Zhong Huang ◽  
Yan-Feng Li ◽  
Jinhua Mi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Similarity Measure ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Propulsion System ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Risk Priority Number ◽  
Weight Analysis

Abstract Due to the epistemic uncertainty, it is difficult for the experts to give precise parameter values in Risk Priority Number (RPN) evaluations. To overcome this drawback, a hybrid method is proposed by integrating the concepts of fuzzy set theory, weight analysis and similarity value measure of fuzzy numbers. The analysis process is divided into two phases to identify the hazard source. The first phase uses fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), then the main potential failure modes can be determined. The importance analysis of basic events can be calculated using fuzzy set theory and weight analysis. In the second phase, the multiple failure modes and component correlations are modelled using the Fuzzy Risk Priority Number (FRPN) evaluation and the Similarity Measure Value Method (SMVM). The proposed method has been applied to the risk analysis of a satellite propulsion system to show the effectiveness and applicability.

scholarly journals FANPCE TECHNIQUE FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ON SUBWAY STATION CONSTRUCTION

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 599-616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luyuan Wu ◽  
Haibo Bai ◽  
Chao Yuan ◽  
Changyu Xu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Weight Matrix ◽  
Subway Station ◽  
Total Risk

Risk assessment is critical for the construction of the subway station to improve the risk management and reduce the additional loss. According to field investigation of safe construction, the analytical network process (ANP), fuzzy set theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), a fuzzy ANP comprehensive evaluation (FANPCE) model was proposed to evaluate the risk of subway station construction in this paper. Twelve key risk factors of subway station construction were identified through literature review and questionnaires. The interdependency among risk factors were illustrated through the network structure of ANP, and then a weight matrix of single risk factors was built by comments and survey results, and the interdependent weight matrix was quantified by integrating the triangular fuzzy number into the ANP. Subsequently, the total risk rank of assessed projects can be quantified though the synthesis of weight matrices with the synthetic operator of FCE. Wu Lu Kou subway station was selected as a case study. The results imply that, construction experience, underground water, and safety consciousness have a substantial influence on construction projects and that the total construction risk of Wu Lu Kou subway station is ranked at I level. Moreover, the loss analysis of the whole construction process verifies this method. This research contributes to developing a FANPCE method to identify the risk factors with high weights, assess the risk rank of projects and appropriately respond to the results. In addition, the developed fuzzy set theory-ANP-FCE integrated network provides stakeholders a consolidated model for the risk evaluation.

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