Approaches for Model Validation: Methodology and Illustration on a Sheet Metal Flanging Process

Model validation has become an increasingly important issue in the decision-making process for model development, as numerical simulations have widely demonstrated their benefits in reducing development time and cost. Frequently, the trustworthiness of models is inevitably questioned in this competitive and demanding world. By definition, model validation is a means to systematically establish a level of confidence of models. To demonstrate the processes of model validation for simulation-based models, a sheet metal flanging process is used as an example with the objective that is to predict the final geometry, or springback. This forming process involves large deformation of sheet metals, contact between tooling and blanks, and process uncertainties. The corresponding uncertainties in material properties and process conditions are investigated and taken as inputs to the uncertainty propagation, where metamodels, known as a model of the model, are developed to efficiently and effectively compute the total uncertainty/variation of the final configuration. Three model validation techniques (graphical comparison, confidence interval technique, and r2 technique) are applied and examined; furthermore, strength and weakness of each technique are examined. The latter two techniques offer a broader perspective due to the involvement of statistical and uncertainty analyses. The proposed model validation approaches reduce the number of experiments to one for each design point by shifting the evaluation effort to the uncertainty propagation of the simulation model rather than using costly physical experiments.