Welfare costs of monetary policy uncertainty in the economy with shifting trend inflation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Thanh Ha ◽  
To Trung Thanh ◽  
Doan Ngoc Thang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Welfare Costs ◽  
Trend Inflation

Monetary policy uncertainty and jumps in advanced equity markets

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elie Bouri ◽  
Konstantinos Gkillas ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Clement Kyei
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Policy Uncertainty

scholarly journals A RECONSIDERATION OF THE DOCTRINAL FOUNDATIONS OF MONETARY POLICY RULES: FISHER VERSUS CHICAGO

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-82
Author(s):  
George S. Tavlas
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Direct Link ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules

There has long been a presumption that the price-level stabilization frameworks of Irving Fisher and Chicagoans Henry Simons and Lloyd Mints were essentially equivalent. I show that there were subtle, but important, differences in the rationales underlying the policies of Fisher and the Chicagoans. Fisher’s framework involved substantial discretion in the setting of the policy instruments; for the Chicagoans the objective of a policy rule was to tie the hands of the authorities in order to reduce discretion and, thus, monetary policy uncertainty. In contrast to Fisher, the Chicagoans provided assessments of the workings of alternative rules, assessed various criteria—including simplicity and reduction of political pressures—in the specification of rules, and concluded that rules would provide superior performance compared with discretion. Each of these characteristics provided a direct link to the rules-based framework of Milton Friedman. Like Friedman’s framework, Simons’s preferred rule targeted a policy instrument.

scholarly journals South Africa’s economic response to monetary policy uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Central Bankers

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a sign restricted SVAR with an endogenous feedback of stochastic volatility to evaluate the sign and size of uncertainty shocks. The authors use a nonlinear DSGE model to gain deeper insights about the transmission mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty. Findings The authors show that monetary policy volatility is high and constant. Both inflation and interest rates decline in response to uncertainty. Output rebounds quickly after a contemporaneous decrease. The DSGE model shows that the size of the uncertainty shock matters – high uncertainty can lead to a severe contraction in output, inflation and interest rates. Research limitations/implications The authors model only a few variables in the SVAR – thus missing perhaps other possible channels of shock transmission. Practical implications There is a lesson for monetary policy: monetary policy uncertainty, in isolation from general macroeconomic uncertainty, often creates unintended adverse consequences and can perpetuate a weak economic environment. The tasks of central bankers are incredibly difficult. Their models project output and inflation with relatively large uncertainty based on many shocks emanating from various sources. It matters how central bankers react to these expectations and how they communicate the underlying risks associated with setting interest rates. Originality/value This is the first study that looks into monetary policy uncertainty into South Africa using a stochastic volatility model and a nonlinear DSGE model. The results should be very useful for the Central Bank as it highlights how uncertainty, that they create, can have adverse economic consequences.

TREND INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN EASTERN EUROPE

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 1649-1663
Author(s):  
Monika Junicke
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Transition Economies ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Trend Inflation ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Eastern European Countries

I use a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a nonzero steady-state inflation to study monetary policy in transition economies. In particular, my analysis focuses on whether inflation targeting is based on a consumer price index (CPI) or its producer counterpart, producer price index (PPI). This issue is specifically relevant for transition economies as they might be subject to Balassa–Samuelson effects arising from trading in international markets. Under these circumstances, domestic inflation is possibly higher than imported inflation, hence targeting PPI inflation may prove more effective in influencing domestic macroeconomic variables than targeting CPI inflation. Using a Bayesian methodology, I find that the central banks of three Eastern European countries (namely, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) are likely to target PPI inflation rather than CPI inflation. This result is in line with the theoretical predictions in the literature, and is robust across several Taylor-type rules.

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