The effects of dispersal on spatial synchrony in metapopulations differ by timescale

Oikos ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 130 (10) ◽  
pp. 1762-1772 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingyu Luo ◽  
Daniel C. Reuman ◽  
Lauren M. Hallett ◽  
Lauren Shoemaker ◽  
Lei Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Synchrony

scholarly journals Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1806) ◽  
pp. 20150173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayco J. M. Tack ◽  
Tommi Mononen ◽  
Ilkka Hanski
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Life History Stage ◽  
General Effect ◽  
Spatial Synchrony ◽  
Glanville Fritillary Butterfly ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Climate change is known to shift species' geographical ranges, phenologies and abundances, but less is known about other population dynamic consequences. Here, we analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly ( Melitaea cinxia ) in a network of 4000 dry meadows during 21 years. The results demonstrate two strong, related patterns: the amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole has increased, though there is no long-term trend in average abundance; and there is a highly significant increase in the level of spatial synchrony in population dynamics. The increased synchrony cannot be explained by increasing within-year spatial correlation in precipitation, the key environmental driver of population change, or in per capita growth rate. On the other hand, the frequency of drought during a critical life-history stage (early larval instars) has increased over the years, which is sufficient to explain the increasing amplitude and the expanding spatial synchrony in metapopulation dynamics. Increased spatial synchrony has the general effect of reducing long-term metapopulation viability even if there is no change in average metapopulation size. This study demonstrates how temporal changes in weather conditions can lead to striking changes in spatio-temporal population dynamics.

Differences in spatial synchrony and interspecific concordance inform guild-level population trends for aerial insectivorous birds

Ecography ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 39 (8) ◽  
pp. 774-786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole L. Michel ◽  
Adam C. Smith ◽  
Robert G. Clark ◽  
Christy A. Morrissey ◽  
Keith A. Hobson
Keyword(s):  
Population Trends ◽  
Level Population ◽  
Insectivorous Birds ◽  
Spatial Synchrony

scholarly journals Integrating spatial synchrony/asynchrony of population distribution into stock assessment models: a spatial hierarchical Bayesian statistical catch-at-age approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (7) ◽  
pp. 1725-1738 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Jiao ◽  
Rob O'Reilly ◽  
Eric Smith ◽  
Don Orth ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Abundance ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Spatial Models ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian Model ◽  
Spatial Synchrony ◽  
Abundance Indices

Abstract In many marine fisheries assessments, population abundance indices from surveys collected by different states and agencies do not always agree with each other. This phenomenon is often due to the spatial synchrony/asynchrony. Those indices that are asynchronous may result in discrepancies in the assessment of temporal trends. In addition, commonly employed stock assessment models, such as the statistical catch-at-age (SCA) models, do not account for spatial synchrony/asynchrony associated with spatial autocorrelation, dispersal, and environmental noise. This limits the value of statistical inference on key parameters associated with population dynamics and management reference points. To address this problem, a set of geospatial analyses of relative abundance indices is proposed to model the indices from different surveys using spatial hierarchical Bayesian models. This approach allows better integration of different surveys with spatial synchrony and asynchrony. We used Atlantic weakfish (Cynoscion regalis) as an example for which there are state-wide surveys and expansive coastal surveys. We further compared the performance of the proposed spatially structured hierarchical Bayesian SCA models with a commonly used Bayesian SCA model that assumes relative abundance indices are spatially independent. Three spatial models developed to mimic different potential spatial patterns were compared. The random effect spatially structured hierarchical Bayesian model was found to be better than the commonly used SCA model and the other two spatial models. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the uncertainty resulting from model selection and the robustness of the recommended model. The spatially structured hierarchical Bayesian model was shown to be able to integrate different survey indices with/without spatial synchrony. It is suggested as a useful tool when there are surveys with different spatial characteristics that need to be combined in a fisheries stock assessment.

scholarly journals Spatial synchrony of wader populations in inland lakes of the Iberian Peninsula

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 947-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. S. S. Gonçalves ◽  
J. A. Gil-Delgado ◽  
R. U. Gosálvez ◽  
G. M. López-Iborra ◽  
A. Ponz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Spatial Synchrony ◽  
Inland Lakes

scholarly journals Nonlinear Effect of Dispersal Rate on Spatial Synchrony of Predator-Prey Cycles

PLoS ONE ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. e79527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy W. Fox ◽  
Geoff Legault ◽  
David A. Vasseur ◽  
Jodie A. Einarson
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Effect ◽  
Spatial Synchrony ◽  
Dispersal Rate ◽  
Predator Prey

Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 610-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence W. Sheppard ◽  
James R. Bell ◽  
Richard Harrington ◽  
Daniel C. Reuman
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Synchrony
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