A framework for using niche models to estimate impacts of climate change on species distributions

Robert P. Anderson

doi:10.1111/nyas.12264

Substrate-dependent fish have shifted less in distribution under climate change

Communications Biology ◽

10.1038/s42003-020-01325-1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Sarah M. Roberts ◽

Andre M. Boustany ◽

Patrick N. Halpin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Fish Species ◽

Species Distributions ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Benthic Species ◽

Bottom Substrate ◽

Ocean Salinity ◽

Oceanographic Variables ◽

Functionally Diverse ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract Analyses of the impacts of climate change on fish species have primarily considered dynamic oceanographic variables that are the output of predictive models, yet fish species distributions are determined by much more than just variables such as ocean temperature. Functionally diverse species are differentially influenced by oceanographic as well as physiographic variables such as bottom substrate, thereby influencing their ability to shift distributions. Here, we show that fish species distributions that are more associated with bottom substrate than other dynamic environmental variables have shifted significantly less over the last 30 years than species whose distributions are associated with bottom salinity. Correspondingly, species whose distributions are primarily determined by bottom temperature or ocean salinity have shifted their mean centroid and southern and northern range boundaries significantly more than species whose distributions are determined by substrate or depth. The influence of oceanographic versus static variables differs by species functional group, as benthic species distributions are more associated with substrate and they have shifted significantly less than pelagic species whose distributions are primarily associated with ocean temperatures. In conclusion, benthic fish, that are more influenced by substrate, may prove much less likely to shift distributions under future climate change.

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Integrating multiple modelling approaches to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species’ distributions in contrasting regions: comparison and implications for policy

Environmental Science & Policy ◽

10.1016/j.envsci.2005.11.005 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 129-147 ◽

Cited By ~ 50

Author(s):

G. del Barrio ◽

P.A. Harrison ◽

P.M. Berry ◽

N. Butt ◽

M.E. Sanjuan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distributions ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change ◽

Modelling Approaches

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Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential habitat of an endangered Brazilian endemic coral: discussion about deep sea refugia

10.1101/517359 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Umberto Diego Rodrigues de Oliveira ◽

Gislaine Vanessa de Lima ◽

Paula Braga Gomes ◽

Ralf Tarciso Silva Cordeiro ◽

Carlos Daniel Pérez

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Deep Sea ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Human Impacts ◽

Marine Conservation ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Potential Habitat ◽

Niche Models ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractClimate and environmental changes are determinant for coral distribution and their very existence. Effects of such changes on distribution can be predicted through ecological niche models, anticipating suitable habitats for subsistence of species. Mussismilia harttii is one of the most widespread Brazilian endemic reef building corals, and in increasing risk of extinction. The ecological niche models were used through the maximal entropy approach to determine the potential present and future habitats for M. harttii, estimating suitable habitat losses and gains at the end of the 21st century. For this purpose, records published in the last 20 years and current and future environmental variables were correlated. The models were evaluated through the Area Under the Operational Curve of the Receiver, using the AUC values and additionally AUCratio, a new approach using independent occurrence data. Both approaches showed that the models performed satisfactorily in predicting areas of potential habitat for the species. The results showed that the area to the south of the São Francisco River is the most suitable for the current habitat of the species, and that nitrate was the most influential variable for the models. Simultaneously, the salinity and temperature exerted greater influence for the models in future scenarios, in which current northernmost and southernmost limits of the potential habitats shifted towards deeper regions, so these deeper sites may serve as a refugia for the species in global warming scenarios. Coral communities at such depths would be less susceptible to the impacts of climate change on temperature and salinity. However, deep sea is not free from human impacts and measures to protect deeper ecosystems should be prioritized in environmental policy for Brazilian marine conservation.

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