scholarly journals Using Survey Data of Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 673-699 ◽  
Author(s):  
ARTURO ORMEÑO ◽  
KRISZTINA MOLNÁR
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Inflation Expectations

scholarly journals The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 1447-1491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko ◽  
Rupal Kamdar
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Rational Expectation ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Full Information ◽  
Macroeconomic Modeling ◽  
Expectations Formation

This paper argues for a careful (re)consideration of the expectations formation process and a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic analyses. While the rational expectations revolution has allowed for great leaps in macroeconomic modeling, the surveyed empirical microevidence appears increasingly at odds with the full-information rational expectation assumption. We explore models of expectation formation that can potentially explain why and how survey data deviate from full-information rational expectations. Using the New Keynesian Phillips curve as an extensive case study, we demonstrate how incorporating survey data on inflation expectations can address a number of otherwise puzzling shortcomings that arise under the assumption of full-information rational expectations. (JEL D04, E24, E27, E31, E37)

Contracts and Firms' Inflation Expectations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
Saten Kumar ◽  
Dennis Wesselbaum
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Average Duration ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Contractual Arrangements ◽  
Fixed Price ◽  
Fixed Quantity

Abstract We use novel survey data to study firms’ inventory contracts. We document facts about the usage of purchase and sale contracts. We find that firms purchase and sell inventory through three contractual arrangements: fixed price and quantity, fixed price only, and fixed quantity only. The former holds the largest share of contracts. The average duration of purchase contracts is not very different from the average duration of sale contracts. We then find that the upward bias in inflation expectations is a feature of firms that do not purchase or sell largely through contracts. Our findings are useful in the calibration of sticky price models.

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