scholarly journals Coupling a land surface model with a hydrodynamic model for regional flood risk assessment due to climate change: Application to the Susquehanna River near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parthkumar A. Modi ◽  
Jonathan A. Czuba ◽  
Zachary M. Easton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Susquehanna River

scholarly journals Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs – adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 541-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Przemyslaw Zelazowski ◽  
Chris Huntingford ◽  
Lina M. Mercado ◽  
Nathalie Schaller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Individual Performance ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Version 2.0

Abstract. Global circulation models (GCMs) are the best tool to understand climate change, as they attempt to represent all the important Earth system processes, including anthropogenic perturbation through fossil fuel burning. However, GCMs are computationally very expensive, which limits the number of simulations that can be made. Pattern scaling is an emulation technique that takes advantage of the fact that local and seasonal changes in surface climate are often approximately linear in the rate of warming over land and across the globe. This allows interpolation away from a limited number of available GCM simulations, to assess alternative future emissions scenarios. In this paper, we present a climate pattern-scaling set consisting of spatial climate change patterns along with parameters for an energy-balance model that calculates the amount of global warming. The set, available for download, is derived from 22 GCMs of the WCRP CMIP3 database, setting the basis for similar eventual pattern development for the CMIP5 and forthcoming CMIP6 ensemble. Critically, it extends the use of the IMOGEN (Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies) framework to enable scanning across full uncertainty in GCMs for impact studies. Across models, the presented climate patterns represent consistent global mean trends, with a maximum of 4 (out of 22) GCMs exhibiting the opposite sign to the global trend per variable (relative humidity). The described new climate regimes are generally warmer, wetter (but with less snowfall), cloudier and windier, and have decreased relative humidity. Overall, when averaging individual performance across all variables, and without considering co-variance, the patterns explain one-third of regional change in decadal averages (mean percentage variance explained, PVE, 34.25±5.21), but the signal in some models exhibits much more linearity (e.g. MIROC3.2(hires): 41.53) than in others (GISS_ER: 22.67). The two most often considered variables, near-surface temperature and precipitation, have a PVE of 85.44±4.37 and 14.98±4.61, respectively. We also provide an example assessment of a terrestrial impact (changes in mean runoff) and compare projections by the IMOGEN system, which has one land surface model, against direct GCM outputs, which all have alternative representations of land functioning. The latter is noted as an additional source of uncertainty. Finally, current and potential future applications of the IMOGEN version 2.0 modelling system in the areas of ecosystem modelling and climate change impact assessment are presented and discussed.

scholarly journals Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michalis I. Vousdoukas ◽  
Dimitrios Bouziotas ◽  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Laurens M. Bouwer ◽  
Evangelos Voukouvalas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Coastal Flood Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An upscaling of flood risk assessment frameworks beyond regional and national scales has taken place during recent years, with a number of large-scale models emerging as tools for hotspot identification, support for international policy-making and harmonization of climate change adaptation strategies. There is, however, limited insight on the scaling effects and structural limitations of flood risk models and, therefore, the underlying uncertainty. In light of this, we examine key sources of epistemic uncertainty in the Coastal Flood Risk (CFR) modelling chain: (i) the inclusion and interaction of different hydraulic components leading to extreme sea-level (ESL); (ii) inundation modelling; (iii) the underlying uncertainty in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM); (iv) flood defence information; (v) the assumptions behind the use of depth-damage functions that express vulnerability; and (vi) different climate change projections. The impact of these uncertainties to estimated Expected Annual Damage (EAD) for present and future climates is evaluated in a dual case study in Faro, Portugal and in the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of the uncertainty factors varies among the different case studies, baseline CFR estimates, as well as their absolute/relative changes. We find that uncertainty from ESL contributions, and in particular the way waves are treated, can be higher than the uncertainty of the two greenhouse gas emission projections and six climate models that are used. Of comparable importance is the quality of information on coastal protection levels and DEM information. In the absence of large-extent datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy the latter two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of large-scale CFR assessment quality.

QA4SM – An online tool for satellite soil moisture data validation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Scherrer ◽  
Wolfgang Preimesberger ◽  
Monika Tercjak ◽  
Zoltan Bakcsa ◽  
Alexander Boresch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
European Space Agency ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Space Applications ◽  
Online Tool ◽  
Soil Moisture Data

<p>To validate satellite soil moisture products and compare their quality with other products, standardized, fully traceable validation methods are required. The QA4SM (Quality Assurance for Soil Moisture; ) free online validation tool provides an easy-to-use implementation of community best practices and requirements set by the Global Climate Observing System and the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites. It sets the basis for a community wide standard for validation studies.</p><p>QA4SM can be used to preprocess, intercompare, store, and visualise validation results. It uses state-of-the-art open-access soil moisture data records such as the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) and the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) soil moisture datasets, as well as single-sensor products, e.g. H-SAF Metop-A/B ASCAT surface soil moisture, SMOS-IC, and SMAP L3 soil moisture. Non-satellite data include in-situ data from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN: ), as well as land surface model or reanalysis products, e.g. ERA5 soil moisture.</p><p>Users can interactively choose temporal or spatial subsets of the data and apply filters on quality flags. Additionally, validation of anomalies and application of different scaling methods are possible. The tool provides traditional validation metrics for dataset pairs (e.g. correlation, RMSD) as well as triple collocation metrics for dataset triples. All results can be visualised on the webpage, downloaded as figures, or downloaded in NetCDF format for further use. Archiving and publishing features allow users to easily store and share validation results. Published validation results can be cited in reports and publications via DOIs.</p><p>The new version of the service provides support for high-resolution soil moisture products (from Sentinel-1), additional datasets, and improved usability.</p><p>We present an overview and examples of the online tool, new features, and give an outlook on future developments.</p><p><em>Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the QA4SM & QA4SM-HR projects, funded by the Austrian Space Applications Programme (FFG).</em></p>

Rapid Global Exposure Assessment for Extreme River Flood Risk Under Climate Change

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1128-1136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youngjoo Kwak ◽  
◽  
Yoichi Iwami ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
River Flood

Globally, large-scale floods are one of the most serious disasters, considering increased frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall. This is not only a domestic problem but also an international water issue related to transboundary rivers in terms of global river flood risk assessment. The purpose of this study is to propose a rapid flood hazard model as a methodological possibility to be used on a global scale, which uses flood inundation depth and works reasonably despite low data availability. The method is designed to effectively simplify complexities involving hydrological and topographical variables in a flood risk-prone area when applied in an integrated global flood risk assessment framework. The model was used to evaluate flood hazard and exposure through pixel-based comparison in the case of extreme flood events caused by an annual maximum daily river discharge of 1/50 probability of occurrence under the condition of climate change between two periods, Present (daily data from 1980 to 2004) and Future (daily data from 2075 to 2099). As preliminary results, the maximum potential extent of inundation area and the maximum number of affected people show an upward trend in Present and Future.

scholarly journals Ecosystem Feedbacks to Climate Change in California: Development, Testing, and Analysis Using a Coupled Regional Atmosphere and Land Surface Model (WRF3–CLM3.5)

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (15) ◽  
pp. 1-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. M. Subin ◽  
W. J. Riley ◽  
J. Jin ◽  
D. S. Christianson ◽  
M. S. Torn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Natural Vegetation ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Model Version

Abstract A regional atmosphere model [Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3 (WRF3)] and a land surface model [Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM3.5)] were coupled to study the interactions between the atmosphere and possible future California land-cover changes. The impact was evaluated on California’s climate of changes in natural vegetation under climate change and of intentional afforestation. The ability of WRF3 to simulate California’s climate was assessed by comparing simulations by WRF3–CLM3.5 and WRF3–Noah to observations from 1982 to 1991. Using WRF3–CLM3.5, the authors performed six 13-yr experiments using historical and future large-scale climate boundary conditions from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The land-cover scenarios included historical and future natural vegetation from the Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System-Century 1 (MC1) dynamic vegetation model, in addition to a future 8-million-ha California afforestation scenario. Natural vegetation changes alone caused summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature changes of −0.7° to +1°C in regions without persistent snow cover, depending on the location and the type of vegetation change. Vegetation temperature changes were much larger than the 2-m air temperature changes because of the finescale spatial heterogeneity of the imposed vegetation change. Up to 30% of the magnitude of the summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature increase and 70% of the magnitude of the 1600 local time (LT) vegetation temperature increase projected under future climate change were attributable to the climate-driven shift in land cover. The authors projected that afforestation could cause local 0.2°–1.2°C reductions in summer daily-mean 2-m air temperature and 2.0°–3.7°C reductions in 1600 LT vegetation temperature for snow-free regions, primarily because of increased evapotranspiration. Because some of these temperature changes are of comparable magnitude to those projected under climate change this century, projections of climate and vegetation change in this region need to consider these climate–vegetation interactions.

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