scholarly journals Managing uncertainty in design flood magnitude: Flexible protection strategies versus safety factors

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. e12455 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Dittes ◽  
O. Špačková ◽  
D. Straub
Keyword(s):  
Safety Factors ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Flood Magnitude ◽  
Protection Strategies ◽  
Uncertainty In Design

scholarly journals Estimating design hydrologic extremes in a warming climate: alternatives, uncertainties and the way forward

2021 ◽  
Vol 379 (2195) ◽  
pp. 20190623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashish Sharma ◽  
Suresh Hettiarachchi ◽  
Conrad Wasko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Design Guidelines ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
The Future ◽  
Flood Magnitude ◽  
Urban Catchments ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Hydrologic Design ◽  
The Impact

It is now well established that our warming planet is experiencing changes in extreme storms and floods, resulting in a need to better specify hydrologic design guidelines that can be projected into the future. This paper attempts to summarize the nature of changes occurring and the impact they are having on the design flood magnitude, with a focus on the urban catchments that we will increasingly reside in as time goes on. Two lines of reasoning are used to assess and model changes in design hydrology. The first of these involves using observed storms and soil moisture conditions and projecting how these may change into the future. The second involves using climate model simulations of the future and using them as inputs into hydrologic models to assess the changed design estimates. We discuss here the limitations in both and suggest that the two are, in fact, linked, as climate model projections for the future are needed in the first approach to form meaningful projections for the future. Based on the author's experience with both lines of reasoning, this invited commentary presents a theoretical narrative linking these two and identifying factors and assumptions that need to be validated before implementation in practice. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.

scholarly journals A new seasonal design flood method based on bivariate joint distribution of flood magnitude and date of occurrence

2010 ◽  
Vol 55 (8) ◽  
pp. 1264-1280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Chen ◽  
Shenglian Guo ◽  
Baowei Yan ◽  
Pan Liu ◽  
Bin Fang
Keyword(s):  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Flood Magnitude

scholarly journals Hydrological Design of Nonstationary Flood Extremes and Durations in Wujiang River, South China: Changing Properties, Causes, and Impacts

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaohong Chen ◽  
Lijuan Zhang ◽  
C.-Y. Xu ◽  
Jiaming Zhang ◽  
Changqing Ye
Keyword(s):  
Change Point ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Maximum Flow ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Flood Duration ◽  
Flood Magnitude ◽  
Flood Flow

The flood-duration-frequency (QDF) analysis is performed using annual maximum streamflow series of 1–10 day durations observed at Pingshi and Lishi stations in southern China. The trends and change point of annual maximum flood flow and flood duration are also investigated by statistical tests. The results indicate that (1) the annual maximum flood flow only has a marginally increasing trend, whereas the flood duration exhibits a significant decreasing trend at the 0.10 significant level. The change point for the annual maximum flood flow series was found in 1991 and after which the mean maximum flood flow increased by 45.26%. (2) The period after 1991 is characterized by frequent and shorter duration floods due to increased rainstorm. However, land use change in the basin was found intensifying the increased tendency of annual maximum flow after 1991. And (3) under nonstationary environmental conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. The impacts on curve fitting of flood series showed an overall change of upper tail from “gentle” to “steep,” and the design flood magnitude became larger. Therefore, a nonstationary frequency analysis taking account of change point in the data series is highly recommended for future studies.

scholarly journals Propagation of rating curve uncertainty in design flood estimation

2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (9) ◽  
pp. 6897-6915 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. H. Steinbakk ◽  
T. L. Thorarinsdottir ◽  
T. Reitan ◽  
L. Schlichting ◽  
S. Hølleland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rating Curve ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Flood Estimation ◽  
Uncertainty In Design

Flood frequency estimation in Scotland using index floods and regional growth curves

1987 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 305-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. C. Acreman ◽  
A. Werritty
Keyword(s):  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Frequency Estimation ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Index Flood ◽  
Flood Magnitude ◽  
Curve Method

ABSTRACTThe index flood/regional growth curve method is the most commonly used procedure for estimating a design flood at an ungauged site in the United Kingdom when only the instantaneous peak discharge is required. This paper summarises recent work in Scotland in which the authors have refined the equations for estimating the index flood from the physical characteristics of the drainage basin and have proposed new methods for classifying basins to increase the hydrological homogeneity of the regions on which the growth curves are based. A new algorithm for estimating regional growth curves is reported which allows for correlation between flood magnitude at different sites. Simulation experiments are described which highlight the consequences of the data failing to meet the assumptions of the models used.

The Influence of Geographical Factors on Extreme Rainfalls in Lampung Province

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
M Welly
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Location ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Ungauged Basin ◽  
Flood Discharge ◽  
Design Rainfall ◽  
Geographical Factors

Many people in Indonesia calculate design rainfall before calculating the design flooddischarge. The design rainfall with a certain return period will eventually be convertedinto a design flood discharge by combining it with the characteristics of the watershed.However, the lack of a network of rainfall recording stations makes many areas that arenot hydrologically measured (ungauged basin), so it is quite difficult to know thecharacteristics of rain in the area concerned. This study aims to analyze thecharacteristics of design rainfall in Lampung Province. The focus of the analysis is toinvestigate whether geographical factors influence the design rainfall that occurs in theparticular area. The data used in this study is daily rainfall data from 15 rainfallrecording stations spread in Lampung Province. The method of frequency analysis usedin this study is the Gumbel method. The research shows that the geographical location ofan area does not have significant effect on extreme rainfall events. The effect of risingearth temperatures due to natural exploitation by humans tends to be stronger as a causeof extreme events such as extreme rainfall.Keywords: Influence, geographical, factors, extreme, rainfall.

Probabilistic Estimation of Safety Factors for Suspension Bridges

2004 ◽  
Vol 88 (8) ◽  
pp. 88-93
Author(s):  
Elena Dragomirescu ◽  
Toshio Miyata ◽  
Hitoshi Yamada ◽  
Hiroshi Katsuchi
Keyword(s):  
Suspension Bridges ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Probabilistic Estimation
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