Use of an agent-based model and Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the effectiveness of emergency management interventions to reduce loss of life during extreme floods

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. S419-S433 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Lumbroso ◽  
M. Davison
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Monte Carlo Analysis ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Extreme Floods ◽  
Management Interventions

Monte Carlo Physarum Machine: An Agent-based Model for Reconstructing Complex 3D Transport Networks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oskar Elek ◽  
Joseph N. Burchett ◽  
J. Xavier Prochaska ◽  
Angus G. Forbes
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Transport Networks ◽  
Agent Based

Evolution of tag-based cooperation on Erdős–Rényi random graphs

2014 ◽  
Vol 25 (06) ◽  
pp. 1450006 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. W. S. Lima ◽  
Tarik Hadzibeganovic ◽  
Dietrich Stauffer
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Random Graph ◽  
Random Graphs ◽  
Phenotypic Traits ◽  
Artificial Agents ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Mode Of Reproduction ◽  
Interacting Agents ◽  
Short Period

Here, we study an agent-based model of the evolution of tag-mediated cooperation on Erdős–Rényi random graphs. In our model, agents with heritable phenotypic traits play pairwise Prisoner's Dilemma-like games and follow one of the four possible strategies: Ethnocentric, altruistic, egoistic and cosmopolitan. Ethnocentric and cosmopolitan strategies are conditional, i.e. their selection depends upon the shared phenotypic similarity among interacting agents. The remaining two strategies are always unconditional, meaning that egoists always defect while altruists always cooperate. Our simulations revealed that ethnocentrism can win in both early and later evolutionary stages on directed random graphs when reproduction of artificial agents was asexual; however, under the sexual mode of reproduction on a directed random graph, we found that altruists dominate initially for a rather short period of time, whereas ethnocentrics and egoists suppress other strategists and compete for dominance in the intermediate and later evolutionary stages. Among our results, we also find surprisingly regular oscillations which are not damped in the course of time even after half a million Monte Carlo steps. Unlike most previous studies, our findings highlight conditions under which ethnocentrism is less stable or suppressed by other competing strategies.

scholarly journals Agent-based model of angiogenesis simulates capillary sprout initiation in multicellular networks

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 987-997 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Walpole ◽  
J. C. Chappell ◽  
J. G. Cluceru ◽  
F. Mac Gabhann ◽  
V. L. Bautch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Time Lapse ◽  
Confocal Imaging ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based

We developed an agent-based model of endothelial sprout initiations based on time-lapse confocal imaging in vitro that outperforms Monte Carlo simulations, suggesting that sprout location and frequency are not purely stochastic behaviors.

scholarly journals Agent based model

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
pp. S187-S191 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Bai ◽  
W. Raskob ◽  
T. Müller
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Intelligent Agents ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Radiological Emergency ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Computational Implementation ◽  
Protection Strategies ◽  
Decision Making Processes

In the CONFIDENCE project, we developed an agent based model (ABM) to simulate the decision making process involving stakeholders of different interests. Our model aims to support decisions on the most suitable protection strategies in different accident phases. The intelligent agents and the models of the negotiation/voting process are described in the paper. Given five scenarios, the numerical results from the computational implementation of the ABM are visualized and analysed in order to better understand the negotiation and voting processes. Our ABM can be expanded in order to support the decision making processes of many different stakeholders of various types of risk management apart from nuclear and radiological emergency management.

Agent-based modeling to inform flood emergency planning and management

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela Di Mauro, BEng, MEng, PhD ◽  
Darren Lumbroso, MEng, MSc, CEng ◽  
Andy Tagg, MEng, CEng
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Management ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Emergency Planning ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Robust Method ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Building Collapse ◽  
Agent Based

Objective: Agent-based modeling can provide powerful tools to inform flood emergency management and to provide an assessment of loss of life due to a flood event. The objective of this work is to study the suitability and robustness of this type of models for being applied in practice in managing flood emergencies.Design: This article describes the application of a prototype, agent-based Life Safety Model (LSM) to two populated areas in the Thames Estuary. Parameters sensitivity analyses have also been performed to assess the robustness and the applicability of this model as part of the actual emergency practice.Results: The model of the two areas resulted in the estimation of the number of fatalities for each scenario for different causes such as drowning, exhaustion, building collapse, and vehicles being swept away. The model was also successfully validated against historical data from the 1953 Canvey Island flood.Conclusions: The LSM offers a scientifically robust method of assessing injuries and lives lost, and it allows the comparison of different emergency management strategies that could assist in reducing the loss of life during future flood incidents.

scholarly journals Modelling the Brumadinho tailings dam failure, the subsequent loss of life and how it could have been reduced

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-37
Author(s):  
Darren Lumbroso ◽  
Mark Davison ◽  
Richard Body ◽  
Gregor Petkovšek
Keyword(s):  
Mining Waste ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Tailings Dam ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Emergency Plans ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Agent Based Modelling ◽  
Tailings Dams ◽  
Subsequent Loss

Abstract. In recent years the number of tailings dams failures has increased. On 25 January 2019, the Brumadinho tailings dam in Brazil suddenly failed, releasing a mudflow over 10 m deep comprising some 107 m3 of mining waste which killed between 270 and 320 people. This paper details the use of an agent-based model, known as the Life Safety Model (LSM), to estimate the risk to people downstream of the Brumadinho tailings dam and to assess if the number of fatalities could have been reduced if a warning had been received prior to or at time the dam failed. The LSM modelling indicates that even if a warning had been issued as the dam failed, the number of fatalities could have been reduced. Agent-based modelling tools such as the LSM can help to inform and improve emergency plans for tailings dams, which will help to reduce the risks posed by them in the future.

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