Reconstructing historical shifts in suitable habitat of Sceloporus lineages using phylogenetic niche modelling

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (10) ◽  
pp. 2117-2128
Author(s):  
Julio A. Rivera ◽  
A. Michelle Lawing ◽  
Emília P. Martins
Keyword(s):  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Niche Modelling

scholarly journals Little hope for the polyploid endemic Pyrenean Larkspur (Delphinium montanum): evidences from population genomics and Ecological Niche Modelling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascaline Salvado ◽  
Pere Aymerich Boixader ◽  
Josep Parera ◽  
Albert Vila Bonfill ◽  
Maria Martin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Population Genomics ◽  
Diploid Species ◽  
Ecological Niche Modelling ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Sky Islands ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Ecological Requirements

Species endemic to restricted geographical ranges represent a particular conservation issue, be it for their heritage interest. In a context of global change, this is particularly the case for plants which belong to high-mountain ecosystems and, because of their ecological requirements, are doomed to survive or disappear on their "sky islands". The Pyrenean Larkspur (Delphinium montanum, Ranunculaceae) is endemic to the Eastern part of the Pyrenees (France and Spain). It is now only observable at a dozen of localities and some populations show signs of decline, such as a recurrent lack of flowering. Implementing population genomic approach (e.g. RAD-seq like) is particularly useful to understand genomic patterns of diversity and differentiation in order to provide recommendations in term of conservation. However, it remains challenging for species such as D. montanum that are autotetraploid with a large genome size (1C-value > 10 pg) as most methods currently available were developed for diploid species. A Bayesian framework able to call genotypes with uncertainty allowed us to assess genetic diversity and population structure in this system. Our results show evidence for inbreeding (mean GIS = 0.361) within all the populations and substantial population structure (mean GST = 0.403) at the metapopulation level. In addition to a lack of connectivity between populations, spatial projections of Ecological Niche Modelling analyses under different climatic scenarios predict a dramatic decrease of suitable habitat for D. montanum in the future. Based on these results, we discuss the relevance and feasibility of different conservation measures.

scholarly journals Phylogeography of the widespread white-eared hummingbird (Hylocharis leucotis): pre-glacial expansion and genetic differentiation of populations separated by the Isthmus of Tehuantepec

2020 ◽  
Vol 130 (2) ◽  
pp. 247-267
Author(s):  
Luz E Zamudio-Beltrán ◽  
Yuyini Licona-Vera ◽  
Blanca E Hernández-Baños ◽  
John Klicka ◽  
Juan Francisco Ornelas
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Differentiation ◽  
Haplotype Network ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Glacial Cycles ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
History Of ◽  
Genetic Differentiation Of Populations ◽  
Isthmus Of Tehuantepec ◽  
Glacial Expansion

Abstract The Pleistocene glacial cycles had a strong influence on the demography and genetic structure of many species, particularly on northern-latitude taxa. Here we studied the phylogeography of the white-eared hummingbird (Hylocharis leucotis), a widely distributed species of the highlands of Mexico and Central America. Analysis of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences was combined with ecological niche modelling (ENM) to infer the demographic and population differentiation scenarios under present and past conditions. Analyses of 108 samples from 11 geographic locations revealed population structure and genetic differentiation among populations separated by the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (IT) and the Motagua-Polochic-Jocotán (MPJ) fault barriers. ENM predicted a widespread distribution of suitable habitat for H. leucotis since the Last Inter Glacial (LIG), but this habitat noticeably contracted and fragmented at the IT. Models for historical dispersal corridors based on population genetics data and ENM revealed the existence of corridors among populations west of the IT; however, the connectivity of populations across the IT has changed little since the LIG. The shallow geographic structure on either side of the isthmus and a star-like haplotype network, combined with the long-term persistence of populations across time based on genetic data and potential dispersal routes, support a scenario of divergence with migration and subsequent isolation and differentiation in Chiapas and south of the MPJ fault. Our findings corroborate the profound effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on the evolutionary history of montane taxa but challenge the generality of expanded suitable habitat (pine-oak forests) during glacial cycles.

Demographic structure, genetic diversity and habitat distribution of the endangered, Australian rainforest tree Macadamia jansenii help facilitate an introduction program

2011 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Shapcott ◽  
Michael Powell
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Wild Population ◽  
Local Area ◽  
Habitat Model ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Habitat Analysis ◽  
Model Combining

Macadamia jansenii is endemic to south-east Queensland, Australia, and is currently known from a single population 180 km north of the nearest wild population of its congener, the edible Macadamia integrifolia. A recently developed Macadamia recovery plan identified that this population was under significant threat and recommended a reintroduction program to safeguard against chance extinction of the single wild population. This study undertook demographic population census surveys, genetic analysis, habitat analysis and niche modelling to determine the potential long-term viability for the species, and to guide search and reintroduction programs. We expanded the known population size of the species to ~60 individuals (1 m and taller) spread over a 900-m distance along a single creek clumped into three subpopulations. There was moderate genetic diversity in the species and the subpopulations showed little genetic differentiation. We developed a potential habitat model combining abiotic variables and vegetation associations, and mapped areas of potentially suitable habitat for M. jansenii within its local area. These maps are being used to target searches for other populations and to guide the location of introduction populations.

Characterizing uncertainty in climate impact projections: a case study with seven marine species on the North American continental shelf

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (6) ◽  
pp. 2118-2133
Author(s):  
James W Morley ◽  
Thomas L Frölicher ◽  
Malin L Pinsky
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Marine Species ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
The North ◽  
Niche Models

Abstract Projections of climate change impacts on living resources are being conducted frequently, and the goal is often to inform policy. Species projections will be more useful if uncertainty is effectively quantified. However, few studies have comprehensively characterized the projection uncertainty arising from greenhouse gas scenarios, Earth system models (ESMs), and both structural and parameter uncertainty in species distribution modelling. Here, we conducted 8964 unique 21st century projections for shifts in suitable habitat for seven economically important marine species including American lobster, Pacific halibut, Pacific ocean perch, and summer flounder. For all species, both the ESM used to simulate future temperatures and the niche modelling approach used to represent species distributions were important sources of uncertainty, while variation associated with parameter values in niche models was minor. Greenhouse gas emissions scenario contributed to uncertainty for projections at the century scale. The characteristics of projection uncertainty differed among species and also varied spatially, which underscores the need for improved multi-model approaches with a suite of ESMs and niche models forming the basis for uncertainty around projected impacts. Ensemble projections show the potential for major shifts in future distributions. Therefore, rigorous future projections are important for informing climate adaptation efforts.

scholarly journals The Past, Present and Future of Elephant Landscapes in Asia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shermin de Silva ◽  
Tiffany Wu ◽  
Alison Thieme ◽  
Josiah Johnson ◽  
Philip Nyhus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Lao Pdr ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Asian Elephants ◽  
The Past

AbstractHabitat loss is a leading cause of species declines worldwide (1, 2). Using the Land Use Harmonization dataset (3) as the basis for ecological niche modelling, we quantify modelled changes in global suitable habitat over the past three centuries for Asian elephants, a megaherbivore representing diverse biomes. Between 1700-2015 over 60% of habitat suitable for elephants was lost, while average patch size declined 84-86%, and the largest patch decreased from 45% to 5%. Over half of the currently inhabited range is considered unsuitable for elephants, whereas suitable habitat is predicted to decline further from 2015-2099 across all six scenarios representing a range of emissions pathways and socioeconomic narratives. However, results vary by region and scenario in a non-linear manner, indicating that socioeconomic outcomes are as important as emissions pathways for the future of these habitats. Lao PDR, Thailand and Myanmar currently have lower elephant populations relative to the amount of available habitat. On the other hand, continued losses in densely settled areas such as India and Sri Lanka are expected to exacerbate human-elephant conflict. Only a few regions, notably peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, and Yunnan province, China, are predicted to have potential for habitat recovery. The most catastrophic losses across all range states occurred under a scenario of mid-range emissions but high regional inequities, leading to overexploitation of critical habitats. We conclude that steps to mitigate climate change must be taken alongside measures to ensure inter-regional social equity in order to safeguard these landscapes for elephants, humans and other species.SignificanceHuman land-use change is a leading driver of biodiversity loss, but effects are difficult to quantify over centennial timescales. Asian elephants occupy diverse biomes that have long been impacted by human activities and are thus indicative of the fates of numerous co-existing species. Over 60% of suitable elephant habitat has been lost since the 1700s and over half of the currently inhabited range may be considered unsuitable. Declines are predicted to continue to 2099 under six scenarios of global change across the majority of elephant range states, with the worst losses corresponding to a scenario representing mid-range emissions but high global inequity. Thus climate change mitigation strategies must include measures to facilitate equitable societies to safeguard and recover elephant landscapes, together with the unique biodiversity they represent.

scholarly journals Predicting habitat suitability of Selaginella adunca A.Br. ex Hieron., an endangered and endemic fern-allies of Western Himalaya

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 547-552
Author(s):  
Amber Srivastava ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Rare Species ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Habitat Type ◽  
Western Himalaya ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressure ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Preferred Habitat

Selaginella adunca is a quite distinct and rare species of Selaginella found in Western Himalaya. This species is reported only from few populations occurring in India and Nepal. Since most of its reported habitats are under anthropogenic pressure, therefore for proper conservation of this species it is necessary to mark the suitable habitat for its conservation and reintroduction. The present study was aimed to find out the suitable habitat of this species through ecological niche modelling (ENM) technique using Maxent model. This will also help in relocating the species in other preferred habitat type and its reintroduction as well.

scholarly journals Climate and Competition Shape Species' Borders: A Study of the Panamint (Crotalus stephensi) and Speckled (Crotalus mitchellii) Rattlesnakes

ISRN Zoology ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Michelle Lawing ◽  
Jesse M. Meik ◽  
P. David Polly
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Interspecific Interactions ◽  
Ecological Niche Modelling ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Closely Related Species ◽  
Crotalus Mitchellii ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Last Glacial

We used ecological niche modelling to study the relative roles of climate and interspecific interactions in defining the parapatric contact between closely related species (Crotalus mitchellii and C. stephensi) and to predict refugia during the last glacial maximum. The modelled suitable habitat for C. stephensi correctly predicts the existing parapatric border between it and C. mitchellii, suggesting that C. stephensi's range at the border is limited by climatic factors. In contrast, the suitable habitat for C. mitchellii does not correctly predict the existing parapatric boundary; rather the suitable habitat of this species extends into the range of C. stephensi, suggesting the latter species, not climatic factors, limit the range of C. mitchellii. Modelled refugia of C. stephensi are much smaller than modern suitable habitat and are partially situated at the current parapatric border, whereas the refugia of C. mitchellii are similar to its current suitable habitat, though also shifted to the south. Ecological niche modelling appears to be a useful tool for studying the interplay between climate and competition in determining boundaries between parapatric species. It also appears to be useful for predicting past suitable habitats of species, because predicted refugia are congruent with independent estimates from molecular phylogeography.

Niche modelling of the potential distribution of the Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus during summer and winter in Iran, to identify gaps in protected area coverage

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (03) ◽  
pp. 423-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
AZITA FARASHI ◽  
MOHAMMAD ALIZADEH-NOUGHANI
Keyword(s):  
Protected Areas ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Iucn Red List ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Mammal Species ◽  
Egyptian Vulture ◽  
The North ◽  
Neophron Percnopterus ◽  
Suitable Habitats

SummaryAn analysis of the extent of overlap between habitats of the Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus during summer and winter in Iran, and Iranian protected areas, discovered slight overlap between the two. Our study aimed to survey suitable habitats of the Egyptian Vulture during summer and winter in Iran using MaxEnt, a species distribution modelling method, and compare the results with the locations and span of protected areas. Model fitness was assessed using the area under the ROC-plot and True Skill Statistics. We found that habitat suitability in Iran varies for the Egyptian Vulture during summer and winter. Summer visitors are scattered in the north and west of Iran, concentrated along the Zagros and Alborz mountain ranges. Winter visitors and residents are scattered in coastal areas in the south. Habitat protection for winter visitors was the greatest, with 10% of suitable habitat covered, while less than 10% of suitable habitat for residents and summer visitors fell within protected areas. The Egyptian Vulture is categorised as ‘Endangered’ on the IUCN Red List. Different environmental factors influence the suitability of habitat for the species. While some factors such as NDVI and anthropogenic disturbance influence all visitors in a similar way, the effects of others such as elevation and distance from protected areas vary for summer and winter visitors. Since designation of protected areas in Iran is mainly determined by the distribution of mammal species, protection of bird habitats is often overlooked. Suitable habitat for the species should be considered when selecting protected areas in future.

scholarly journals DINOSAURS STILL IN LONG-TERM NET SPECIATION DECLINE BEFORE THE K-PG BOUNDARY

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manabu Sakamoto ◽  
Michael J Benton ◽  
Chris Venditti
Keyword(s):  
Taxonomic Diversity ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Number Of Species ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Mass Extinction Event

A recent study in Nature Communications used ecological niche modelling (ENM) to project suitable habitat for dinosaurs during the latest stages of the Cretaceous Period (83-66 million years [Myr] ago) from detailed climate data, apparently refuting the hypothesis that dinosaurs were in a long-term decline before the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event. However, we note here that: 1) suitable habitat does not necessarily equate to taxonomic diversity (i.e., number of species); and 2) lack of a decline in diversity across time intervals is not evidence against a gradual decline in net speciation through time – diversity and net speciation measure two separate things. Diversity measures the number of species within discrete time intervals, while phylogenetically inferred net speciation measures the dynamic relationship between speciation and extinction through time. Additionally, net speciation is estimated in a model framework that accounts for statistically undesired effects of shared ancestry, whereas diversity is not. Thus, diversity and net speciation are not directly comparable, and a lack of a decline in diversity does not necessarily refute a decline in net speciation through time.

scholarly journals Optimized Maxent Model Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on the Suitable Distribution of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingchang Li ◽  
Mingyang Li ◽  
Chao Li ◽  
Zhenzhen Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Cunninghamia Lanceolata ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Future

Climate change significantly influences changes in ecological phenomena and processes, such as species distribution and phenology, thus accelerating the rate of species extinction or prosperity. Climate change is considered to be one of the most important threats to global biodiversity in the 21st century and will pose significant challenges to biodiversity conservation in the future. The use of niche modelling to predict changes in the suitable distribution of species under climate change scenarios is becoming a hot topic of biological conservation. In this study, we use data from China’s National Forest Continuous Inventory as well as specimen collection data of Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook to run optimized Maxent models to predict potential suitable distribution of the species in the present day, 2050s, and 2070s under different climate change scenarios in China. In the modeling process, the most important uncorrelated variables were chosen, and the sample-size-adjusted Akaike information criterion (AICc) was used to select the optimal combination of feature type and regularization multiplier. Variable selection reduced the number of variables used and the complexity of the model, and the use of the AICc reduced overfitting. Variables relating to precipitation were more important than temperature variables in predicting C. lanceolata distribution in the optimal model. The predicted suitable distribution areas of C. lanceolata were different for the different periods under different climate change scenarios, with the centroids showing a degree of northward movement. The suitable distribution area is predicted to become more fragmented in the future. Our results reveal the climate conditions required for the suitable distribution of C. lanceolata in China and the likely changes to its distribution pattern in the future, providing a scientific basis for the sustainable management, protection, and restoration of the suitable habitat of this economically important tree species in the context of climate change.

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