Combining trade data and niche modelling improves predictions of the origin and distribution of non-native European populations of a globally invasive species

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (5) ◽  
pp. 967-978 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Cardador ◽  
Martina Carrete ◽  
Belinda Gallardo ◽  
José L. Tella
ISRN Ecology ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Cunze ◽  
Marion Carmen Leiblein ◽  
Oliver Tackenberg

Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., native to North America, is a problematic invasive species, because of its highly allergenic pollen. The species is expected to expand its range due to climate change. By means of ecological niche modelling (ENM), we predict habitat suitability for A. artemisiifolia in Europe under current and future climatic conditions. Overall, we compared the performance and results of 16 algorithms commonly applied in ENM. As occurrence records of invasive species may be dominated by sampling bias, we also used data from the native range. To assess the quality of the modelling approaches we assembled a new map of current occurrences of A. artemisiifolia in Europe. Our results show that ENM yields a good estimation of the potential range of A. artemisiifolia in Europe only when using the North American data. A strong sampling bias in the European Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) data for A. artemisiifolia causes unrealistic results. Using the North American data reflects the realized European distribution very well. All models predict an enlargement and a northwards shift of potential range in Central and Northern Europe during the next decades. Climate warming will lead to an increase and northwards shift of A. artemisiifolia in Europe.


Author(s):  
Lara-Sophie Dey ◽  
Marianna V. P. Simões ◽  
Oliver Hawlitschek ◽  
Michael G. Sergeev ◽  
Sheng‐Quan Xu ◽  
...  

AbstractHuman-induced ecological and climatic changes have led to the decline and even local extinction of many formerly widely distributed temperate and cold-adapted species. Determining the exact causes of this decline remains difficult. Bryodemella tuberculata was a widely distributed orthopteran species before the mid-19th century. Since then, many European populations have suffered drastic declines and are now considered extinct or critically endangered. We used ecological niche modelling based on a large dataset of extant and extinct occurrence data to investigate whether poor climatic suitability in the periphery of its global range was a possible cause of the local extinction of the European populations of B. tuberculata. We also used population genetics based on the COI marker to estimate and compare the genetic diversity of extant populations. We found that Europe still provides highly suitable habitats close to the climatic optimum, contradicting the assumption of climate change as major driver of this decline. Instead, changes in land-cover and other anthropogenic modifications of the habitats at the local scale seem to be the major reasons for local extinctions. Genetic analysis suggests Central Asia as center of diversity with a stable population size, whereas the effective sizes of the remaining European populations are decreasing. We found European genetic lineages nested within Central Asian lineages, suggesting a Central Asian source distribution area. Our results suggest that the declining European populations represent relics of a formerly wider distribution, which was fragmented by changes in land-use. These relics are now threatened by limited connectivity and small effective population sizes. Specific conservation actions, such as the restoration of former or potential new habitats, and translocation of individuals from extant populations to these restored sites may help slow, stall, or even revert the extinction process.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco E. Fontúrbel ◽  
Maureen M. Murúa ◽  
Lorena Vieli

AbstractInvasive species are one of the main biodiversity loss drivers. Some species can establish and thrive in novel habitats, impacting local communities, as is the case of managed pollinators. In this regard, an invasive species' expansion process over time is critical for its control and management. A good example is the European bumblebee Bombus terrestris, which has rapidly invaded the southern part of South America after being repeatedly introduced in Chile for crop pollination since 1997. We assessed the temporal dynamics of B. terrestris invasion in Argentina and Chile by compiling 562 occurrence points from 2000 to 2019. We used two estimators (minimum convex polygon and 95% fixed kernel) to estimate the increase of the invaded area over time. We found that the area invaded by B. terrestris in the southern part of South America presents a linear increase over time, which was consistent for both estimators. In this scenario, species traits, environmental characteristics, and introduction dynamics facilitate a rapid invasion process that will continue to expand, reaching other South American countries in the near future. As this bumblebee is a super-generalist, it probably will expand across South America, as climate niche modelling predicts, if no actions were taken.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2384
Author(s):  
Jhony Fernando Cruz Román ◽  
Ricardo Enrique Hernández-Lambraño ◽  
David Rodríguez de la Cruz ◽  
José Ángel Sánchez Agudo

The current situation of global environmental degradation as a result of anthropogenic activities makes it necessary to open new research lines focused on the causes and effects of the main alterations caused in the ecosystems. One of the most relevant is how the niche dynamics of invasive species change between different geographical areas, since its understanding is key to the early detection and control of future invasions. In this regard, we analyzed the distribution pattern of Cirsium vulgare (Savi) Ten., a plant of the Asteraceae family originally from the Eurasian region that currently invades wide areas of the world. We estimated its niche shifts between continents using a combination of principal components analysis (PCA) and Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) on an extensive set of data on global presences of its native and invaded ranges from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). A set of bioclimatic variables and the Human Footprint (HFP) with a resolution of 10 km were selected for this purpose. Our results showed that the species has a marked global trend to expand toward warmer climates with less seasonality, although in some regions its invasiveness appears to be less than in others. The models had a good statistical performance and high coherence in relation to the known distribution of the species and allowed us to establish the relative weight of the contribution of each variable used, with the annual temperature and seasonality being the determining factors in the establishment of the species. Likewise, the use of non-climatic variable HFP has provided relevant information to explain the colonizing behavior of the species. The combination of this methodology with an adequate selection of predictor variables represents a very useful tool when focusing efforts and resources for the management of invasive species.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 182-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annamária Fenesi ◽  
Sandra Saura-Mas ◽  
Robert R. Blank ◽  
Anita Kozma ◽  
Beáta-Magdolna Lózer ◽  
...  

Although several invasive species have induced changes to the fire regime of invaded communities, potential intraspecific shifts in fire-related traits that might enhance the invasion success of these species have never been addressed. We assumed that traits conferring persistence and competitiveness in postfire conditions to downy brome, a quintessential invasive species of the Great Basin (North America), might be under selection in areas with recurrent fires. Therefore, we hypothesized that populations from frequently burned regions of the Great Basin would have (1) greater tolerance to fire at seed level, (2) higher relative seedling performance in postfire environments, and (3) greater flammability than unburned Central European populations that evolved without fire. Seeds were collected from three introduced populations from frequently burned regions in North America and three introduced populations of rarely or never burned sites from Central Europe. We performed (1) germination experiments with seeds subjected to the effect of different fire components (heat shocks, smoke, flame, ash), (2) pot experiments analyzing the effect of postfire conditions on the early growth of the seedlings, and (3) a series of flammability tests on dry biomass of plants reared in a common garden. All seeds tolerated the low-temperature treatments (40 to 100 C), but were destroyed at high heat shocks (140 and 160 C). Only the 100 C heat treatment caused a difference in reaction of seeds from different continents, as the European seeds were less tolerant to this heat shock. We found significantly increased seedling height and biomass after 4 wk of growth under postfire conditions in American populations, but not in European ones. American populations had enhanced flammability in three out of five measured parameters compared to European populations. In summary, these intraspecific differences in fire-related traits might contribute to the persistence and perhaps invasiveness of the frequently burned North American downy brome populations.


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