scholarly journals Nestling diet and parental food provisioning in a declining mountain passerine reveal high sensitivity to climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnaud G. Barras ◽  
Carole A. Niffenegger ◽  
Ivan Candolfi ◽  
Yannick A. Hunziker ◽  
Raphaël Arlettaz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Food Provisioning ◽  
Nestling Diet

The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrijana Todorovic ◽  
Jasna Plavsic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Calibration Period ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Parameter Values

Assessment of climate change (CC) impact on hydrologic regime requires a calibrated rainfall-runoff model, defined by its structure and parameters. The parameter values depend, inter alia, on the calibration period. This paper investigates influence of the calibration period on parameter values, model efficiency and streamflow projections under CC. To this end, a conceptual HBV-light model of the Kolubara River catchment in Serbia is calibrated against flows observed within 5 consecutive wettest, driest, warmest and coldest years and in the complete record period. The optimised parameters reveal high sensitivity towards calibration period. Hydrologic projections under climate change are developed by employing (1) five hydrologic models with outputs of one GCM–RCM chain (Global and Regional Climate Models) and (2) one hydrologic model with five GCM–RCM outputs. Sign and magnitude of change in projected variables, compared to the corresponding values simulated over the baseline period, vary with the hydrologic model used. This variability is comparable in magnitude to variability stemming from climate models. Models calibrated over periods with similar precipitation as the projected ones may result in less uncertain projections, while warmer climate is not expected to contribute to the uncertainty in flow projections. Simulations over prolonged dry periods are expected to be uncertain.

scholarly journals Vulnerability analysis of capture fisheries to climate change based on the Province Scale (exposure and sensitivity analysis)

2021 ◽  
Vol 869 (1) ◽  
pp. 012016
Author(s):  
V Mandhalika ◽  
A B Sambah ◽  
D O Sutjipto ◽  
F Iranawati ◽  
M A Z Fuad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Final Analysis ◽  
Vulnerability Analysis ◽  
Exposure Analysis ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Important Input ◽  
Recorded Data ◽  
Very High

Abstract Fisheries has a major contribution for the Indonesian economy both on a local and national scale. However, the phenomenon of climate change can threaten the sustainability of this sector. Therefore, a scientific approach is needed to determine the level of risk and adaptation strategies for fisheries, one of which is through vulnerability analysis. Vulnerability is the final analysis resulted from the analysis of sensitivity and exposure. Both of these analyses are important to determine the parameters that will affect the value of the fishery vulnerability to climate change. This research is focused on sensitivity and exposure analysis with the coverage limit is the province area to determine the sensitivity and exposure index that exists in the study area. The result will be important input in further research for the vulnerability of capture fisheries to climate change. Three provinces in Indonesia were selected through purposive sampling method. The source of data for indices variables were using recorded data in 2009-2020 from relevant sources. Result described that SST variability in the three provinces has the same pattern. In the exposure analysis, the SST is linked to the catch resulting in different exposure statuses in each province. It also illustrated those areas with a very high number of fishermen and catches will have very high sensitivity. The research will support in the sustainable management of capture fish at the province scale.

Food Provisioning and Nestling Diet of the Black Stork in the Czech Republic

Waterbirds ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radek Hampl ◽  
Stanislav Bureš ◽  
Peter Baláž ◽  
Miroslav Bobek ◽  
František Pojer
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Food Provisioning ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Nestling Diet ◽  
Black Stork

scholarly journals Locomotion of Slope Geohazards Responding to Climate Change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Its Adjacent Regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 10488
Author(s):  
Yiru Jia ◽  
Jifu Liu ◽  
Lanlan Guo ◽  
Zhifei Deng ◽  
Jiaoyang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Spatial Location ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
The South ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Slope geohazards, which cause significant social, economic and environmental losses, have been increasing worldwide over the last few decades. Climate change-induced higher temperatures and shifted precipitation patterns enhance the slope geohazard risks. This study traced the spatial transference of slope geohazards in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and investigated the potential climatic factors. The results show that 93% of slope geohazards occurred in seasonally frozen regions, 2.6% of which were located in permafrost regions, with an average altitude of 3818 m. The slope geohazards are mainly concentrated at 1493–1988 m. Over time, the altitude of the slope geohazards was gradually increased, and the mean altitude tended to spread from 1984 m to 2562 m by 2009, while the slope gradient varied only slightly. The number of slope geohazards increased with time and was most obvious in spring, especially in the areas above an altitude of 3000 m. The increase in temperature and precipitation in spring may be an important reason for this phenomenon, because the results suggest that the rate of air warming and precipitation at geohazard sites increased gradually. Based on the observation of the spatial location, altitude and temperature growth rate of slope geohazards, it is noted that new geohazard clusters (NGCs) appear in the study area, and there is still a possibility of migration under the future climate conditions. Based on future climate forecast data, we estimate that the low-, moderate- and high-sensitivity areas of the QTP will be mainly south of 30° N in 2030, will extend to the south of 33° N in 2060 and will continue to expand to the south of 35° N in 2099; we also estimate that the proportion of high-sensitivity areas will increase from 10.93% in 2030 to 14.17% in 2060 and 17.48% in 2099.

Impacts of historical warming on marine fisheries production

Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 363 (6430) ◽  
pp. 979-983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M. Free ◽  
James T. Thorson ◽  
Malin L. Pinsky ◽  
Kiva L. Oken ◽  
John Wiedenmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fisheries Management ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Maximum Sustainable Yield ◽  
Marine Fishes ◽  
Sustainable Yield ◽  
Food Provisioning ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Potential Food

Climate change is altering habitats for marine fishes and invertebrates, but the net effect of these changes on potential food production is unknown. We used temperature-dependent population models to measure the influence of warming on the productivity of 235 populations of 124 species in 38 ecoregions. Some populations responded significantly positively (n = 9 populations) and others responded significantly negatively (n = 19 populations) to warming, with the direction and magnitude of the response explained by ecoregion, taxonomy, life history, and exploitation history. Hindcasts indicate that the maximum sustainable yield of the evaluated populations decreased by 4.1% from 1930 to 2010, with five ecoregions experiencing losses of 15 to 35%. Outcomes of fisheries management—including long-term food provisioning—will be improved by accounting for changing productivity in a warmer ocean.

scholarly journals Integrating within-species variation in thermal physiology into climate change ecology

2019 ◽  
Vol 374 (1778) ◽  
pp. 20180550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Bennett ◽  
Carlos M. Duarte ◽  
Núria Marbà ◽  
Thomas Wernberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Thermal Sensitivity ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Marine Organisms ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Species Variation ◽  
Thermal Physiology ◽  
Physiological Diversity

Accurately forecasting the response of global biota to warming is a fundamental challenge for ecology in the Anthropocene. Within-species variation in thermal sensitivity, caused by phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation of thermal limits, is often overlooked in assessments of species responses to warming. Despite this, implicit assumptions of thermal niche conservatism or adaptation and plasticity at the species level permeate the literature with potentially important implications for predictions of warming impacts at the population level. Here we review how these attributes interact with the spatial and temporal context of ocean warming to influence the vulnerability of marine organisms. We identify a broad spectrum of thermal sensitivities among marine organisms, particularly in central and cool-edge populations of species distributions. These are characterized by generally low sensitivity in organisms with conserved thermal niches, to high sensitivity for organisms with locally adapted thermal niches. Important differences in thermal sensitivity among marine taxa suggest that warming could adversely affect benthic primary producers sooner than less vulnerable higher trophic groups. Embracing the spatial, temporal and biological context of within-species variation in thermal physiology helps explain observed impacts of ocean warming and can improve forecasts of climate change vulnerability in marine systems. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen’.

Vulnerability to Climate Change

2017 ◽  
pp. 1393-1416
Author(s):  
Sibananda Senapati ◽  
Vijaya Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Sustainable Livelihood ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Fishing Villages ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Vulnerability Indicators ◽  
Sustainable Livelihood Approach ◽  
The City

This paper is based on a detail review of literature available in the area of climate change, vulnerability and impact assessment. Methodological issues pertaining to vulnerability like; development of vulnerability indicators, process of indicator selection etc are the main focus in this paper. As discussed indicators are more acceptable, easy to understand and help in comparing across regions. However, indicators also possess a number of limitations. There are issues in selecting indicators and how to aggregate their values. The current study tries to overcome those issues through a primary study. The study region is Mumbai, India and ‘Koli' fishing communities reside in the city. The socio-economic implications of climate change and vulnerability of communities depending on fishery are estimated by developing vulnerability indicators using Sustainable Livelihood Approach (SLA), and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Further experts opinions are considered while selecting indicators. Vulnerability indicators are derived from literature and validated through experts' opinion. Experts are chosen from higher learning institutes in the city. In the climate change literature vulnerability mainly divided into exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The indicators of sensitivity and exposure under vulnerability are combined here and categorized into two: livelihood and perceived changes. Similarly the indicators of adaptive capacity are of five categories comprising human, physical, financial, social and government policy related indicators. Thus a total 30 indicators are selected. Among five fishing villages surveyed, fishermen from Madh and Worli are found more vulnerable because of their high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. The derived vulnerability scores are further compared and analyzed against the scores derived from experts. The overall result shows the experts value of indicators are similar with the indicator score derived in the study using simple aggregate method. This study further provides policy implications for reducing vulnerability of fishing villages.

Status, processes, and drivers of soil degradation in the Mediterranean region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carla S. S. Ferreira ◽  
Samaneh Seifollahi-Aghmiuni ◽  
Georgia Destouni ◽  
Marijana Solomun ◽  
Navid Ghajarnia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
Soil Organic Matter ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Soil Degradation ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Degradation Processes ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Very High

<p>Soil supports life on Earth and provides several goods and services of essence for human wellbeing. Over the last century, however, intensified human activities and unsustainable management practices, along with ongoing climate change, have been degrading soils’ natural capital, pushing it towards possible critical limits for its ability to provide essential ecosystem services. Soil degradation is characterized by negative changes in soil health status that may lead to partial or total loss of productivity and overall capacity to support human societies, e.g., against increasing climate risks. Such degradation leads to environmental, social and economic losses, which may in turn trigger land abandonment and desertification. In particular, the Mediterranean region has been identified as one of the most vulnerable and severely affected European regions by soil degradation, where the actual extent and context of the problem is not yet well understood. This study provides an overview of current knowledge about the status of soil degradation and its main drivers and processes in the European Mediterranean region, based on comprehensive literature review. In the Mediterranean region, 34% of the land area is subject to ‘very high sensitivity’ or ‘high sensitivity’ to desertification, and risk of desertification applies to over more than 65% of the territory of some countries, such as Spain and Cyprus (IPCC, 2019). The major degradation processes are: (i) soil erosion, due to very high erosion rates (>2 t/ha); (ii) loss of soil organic matter, due to high mineralization rates while the region is already characterized by low or very low soil organic matter (<2%); and (iii) soil and water salinisation, due to groundwater abstraction and sea water intrusion. However, additional physical, chemical and biological degradation processes, such as soil sealing and compaction, contamination, and loss of biodiversity, are also of great concern. Some of the degradation processes, such as soil erosion, have been extensively investigated and their spatial extent is relatively well described. Other processes, however, such as soil biodiversity, are poorly investigated and have limited data availability. In general, a lack of systematic inventories of soil degradation status limits the overall knowledge base and impairs understanding of the spatial and temporal dimensions of the problem. In terms of drivers, Mediterranean soil degradation has mainly been driven by increasing population, particularly in coastal areas, and its concentration in urban areas (and consequent abandonment of rural areas), as well as by land-use changes and intensification of socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture and tourism). Additionally, climate change, with increasing extent and severity of extreme events (droughts, floods, wildfires), may also be a key degradation driver in this region. Improved information on soil degradation status (including spatio-temporal extent and severity) and enhanced knowledge of degradation drivers, processes and socio-economic, ecological, and biodiversity impacts are needed to better support regional soil management, policy, and decision making. Science and evidence based improvements of soil resource governance and management can enhance soil resilience to regional and global changes, and support the region to achieve related Sustainable Development Goals and the Land Degradation Neutrality targets.</p>

Simulation of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period using HadGEM3-GC31-LL: Pliocene climate relative to the pre-industrial era, previous model versions, other climate models and proxy data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Williams ◽  
Daniel Lunt ◽  
Alistair Sellar ◽  
William Roberts ◽  
Robin Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Global Mean

<p>To better understand the processes contributing to future climate change, palaeoclimate model simulations are an important tool because they allow testing of the models’ ability to simulate very different climates than that of today.  As part of CMIP6/PMIP4, the latest version of the UK’s physical climate model, HadGEM3-GC31-LL (hereafter, for brevity, HadGEM3), was recently used to simulate the mid-Holocene (~6 ka) and Last Interglacial (~127 ka) simulations and the results were compared to the preindustrial era, previous versions of the same model and proxy data (see Williams et al. 2020, Climate of the Past).  Here, we use the same model to go further back in time, presenting the results from the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~3.3 to 3 ma, hereafter the “Pliocene” for brevity).  This period is of particular interest when it comes to projections of future climate change under various scenarios of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, because it is the most recent time in Earth’s history when CO<sub>2</sub> levels were roughly equivalent to today.  In response, albeit due to slower mechanisms than today’s anthropogenic fossil fuel driven-change, during the Pliocene global mean temperatures were 2-3°C higher than today, more so at the poles.</p><p> </p><p>Here, we present results from the HadGEM3 Pliocene simulation.  The model is responding to the Pliocene boundary conditions in a manner consistent with current understanding and existing literature.  When compared to the preindustrial era, global mean temperatures are currently ~5°C higher, with the majority of warming coming from high latitudes due to polar amplification from a lack of sea ice.  Relative to other models within the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), this is the 2<sup>nd</sup> warmest model, with the majority of others only showing up to a 4.5°C increase and many a lot less.  This is consistent with the relatively high sensitivity of HadGEM3, relative to other CMIP6-class models.  When compared to a previous generation of the same UK model, HadCM3, similar patterns of both surface temperature and precipitation changes are shown (relative to preindustrial).  Moreover, when the simulations are compared to proxy data, the results suggest that the HadGEM3 Pliocene simulation is closer to the reconstructions than its predecessor.</p>

scholarly journals Spatial Heterogeneity in Glacier Mass-Balance Sensitivity across High Mountain Asia

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 776 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rongjun Wang ◽  
Shiyin Liu ◽  
Donghui Shangguan ◽  
Valentina Radić ◽  
Yong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Reference Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Relationship

Mass balance of glaciers in High Mountain Asia (HMA) varies substantially across the region. While the spatial variability is attributed to differences in climatic setting and sensitivity of these glaciers to climate change, an assessment of these factors to date has only been performed on a small sample of glaciers and a small set of climate perturbation scenarios. To advance the assessment to larger datasets, we first reconstruct the time series of reference-surface mass balance for 1952–2014 periods using an empirical model calibrated with observed mass balance from 45 glaciers across the HMA. Forcing the model with a set of independent stepwise changes of temperature (±0.5 K to ±6 K) and precipitation (±5% to ±30%), we assess the reference-surface mass balance sensitivity of each glacier in the sample. While the relationship between the change in mass balance and the change in precipitation is linear, the relationship with the change in temperature is non-linear. Spatial heterogeneity in the simulated mass balance sensitivities is attributed to differences in climatic setting, elevation, and the sensitivity of mass-balance profile (gradient) to changes in temperature and precipitation. While maritime and low-lying continental glaciers show high sensitivity to temperature changes and display a uniform mass-balance sensitivity with elevation, the high-lying continental glaciers show high sensitivity to precipitation changes and display a non-uniform mass-balance sensitivity with elevation. Our analysis reveals the dominant drivers of spatial variability in the mass balance sensitivity across the region: temperature as a single driver for maritime glaciers, and a superposition of temperature, precipitation seasonality, and snow/rain differentiation for continental glaciers. Finally, a set of sensitivity tests with perturbed model parameters confirms the robustness of our results. The model’s ability and robustness to resolve spatial patterns in the sensitivities and their drivers implies that simple modeling approaches remain a powerful tool for analyzing glacier response to climate change in HMA.

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