scholarly journals Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: The role of expectations in the crude oil market

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuji Fueki ◽  
Jouchi Nakajima ◽  
Shinsuke Ohyama ◽  
Yoichiro Tamanyu
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Oil Market

scholarly journals Oil Price Shocks and Fiscal Spending in Oil Producing Economy: The Role of Asymmetry

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Bernard Olagboyega Muse
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Fiscal Spending

Given their over reliance on proceeds from the sale of crude oil, fiscal spending in the oil-producing economy are often characterised with some specific challenges mainly due to the uncertainty in the nature of oil price movements in the international crude oil market. Motivated by the historical up – down trends in the international oil prices and their potential implications particularly for oil-producing countries, this paper explores linear and non-linear ARDL frameworks to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of oil price shocks on fiscal spending. Using the case of the Nigerian economy, this empirical finding suggests that shocks to international oil prices did matter for fiscal spending in the oil-producing economy. On the direction of the impact of the shocks, the finding of the non-rejection of the null hypothesis of no asymmetry thus implies that fiscal spending in Nigeria reacts indifferently to either a positive or negative oil price shocks.

scholarly journals The Effect of Global Oil Price Shocks on China’s Chemical Markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fuel Oil ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Jump Intensity

This paper investigates the effects of global oil price shocks on China’s chemical market and two typical markets: fuel oil and PTA. The ARJI-GARCH model is applied to extract the jump intensity of crude oil returns. Then, jump intensity and positive and negative oil price shocks are added to the ARMA-GARCH model to examine the spillover effects of the crude oil market on chemical markets. Our results indicate that global oil returns are characterized by time-varying jump behavior. In addition, the impacts of oil returns jumps on the chemical markets are different. The oil returns jumps only have significant effects on the whole market and the fuel oil market. Moreover, the oil price shocks have asymmetric effects on chemical markets, except for the fuel oil market. Specifically, negative oil price shocks have greater effects on these markets than do positive shocks.

scholarly journals On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks: The Role of Storage

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (270) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deren Unalmis ◽  
Ibrahim Unalmis ◽  
D. Filiz Unsal ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks

scholarly journals Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Knut Are Aastveit ◽  
Hilde C. Bjørnland ◽  
Jamie L. Cross
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Pass Through

Abstract Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market. We establish this result using a structural VAR model of the global oil market that jointly identifies transmissions of oil demand and supply shocks through real oil prices to both expected and actual inflation. We demonstrate that economic activity shocks have a significantly longer lasting effect on inflation expectations and actual inflation than other types of real oil price shocks, and resolve disagreements around the role of oil prices in explaining the missing deflation puzzle of the Great Recession.

The Effects of Oil Price Shock on the Indian Economy—A Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 190-202
Author(s):  
Nenavath Sreenu
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Price Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Development Activity ◽  
Indian Economy

The article examines the effects of crude oil price shocks on the Indian economy development and GDP growth for the period of 2010–2018. Currently, the Indian economy has been facing the identical issues of escalating trade disparity and continuing inflation. In this connection, the study focussed on the determination of the relationship between the speculation and crude oil price impact on the Indian economic development activity and GDP growth, and the paper investigated how oil price variations affect the Indian economy development through different networks like WPI, CP, IIP, GDP, monetary policy, trade and investment. The research paper adopted methods such as GARCH model and description to tool the volatility on both the oil and stock markets, and then an extension of the vector auto-regression (VAR) models is also applied to determine the oil price shocks’ effect on macroeconomic indicators. The outcomes of cointegration model propose that crude oil is pro-cyclical to output, and the article used VAR investigation to check the discrepancy in decomposition to capture the linear inter-dependencies among the variables. JEL Classification: G4, G11, G15

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