Permutation entropies of short‐term interest rates as an early‐warning signal

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-340
Author(s):  
Daeyup Lee ◽  
Hail Park
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Early Warning Signal

scholarly journals Impression Offsetting as an Early Warning Signal of Low CEO Confidence in Acquisitions

2019 ◽  
Vol 62 (5) ◽  
pp. 1307-1332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel L. Gamache ◽  
Gerry McNamara ◽  
Scott D. Graffin ◽  
Jason Kiley ◽  
Jerayr Haleblian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Early Warning Signal

Disturbance cues in freshwater prey fishes: do juvenile convict cichlids and rainbow trout respond to ammonium as an ‘early warning’ signal?

Chemoecology ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 255-261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meaghan A. Vavrek ◽  
Chris K. Elvidge ◽  
Robert DeCaire ◽  
Brenna Belland ◽  
Christopher D. Jackson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rainbow Trout ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Early Warning Signal ◽  
Convict Cichlids ◽  
Disturbance Cues

scholarly journals Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change

2008 ◽  
Vol 105 (38) ◽  
pp. 14308-14312 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Dakos ◽  
M. Scheffer ◽  
E. H. van Nes ◽  
V. Brovkin ◽  
V. Petoukhov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Early Warning Signal

scholarly journals Flickering as an early warning signal

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasilis Dakos ◽  
Egbert H. van Nes ◽  
Marten Scheffer
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Early Warning Signal

scholarly journals A Simple Early Warning Signal for COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lidia Ceriani ◽  
Carlos Hernandez-Suarez ◽  
Paolo Verme
Keyword(s):  
Older People ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Fixed Effect ◽  
Daily Mortality ◽  
Reliable Predictor ◽  
Early Warning Signal ◽  
Effect Model

AbstractThe paper provides some initial evidence that daily mortality rates (for any cause) by municipality or province can be used as a statistically reliable predictor of looming COVID-19 crises. Using recently published deaths figures for 1,689 Italian municipalities, we estimate the growth in daily mortality rates between the period 2015–2019 and 2020 by province. All provinces that experienced a major COVID-19 shock in mid-March 2020 had increases in mortality rates of 100% or above already in early February 2020. This increase was particularly strong for males and older people, two recognizable features of COVID-19. Using a panel fixed effect model, we show that the association between these early increases in mortality for any cause and the March 2020 COVID-19 shock is strong and significant. We conclude that the growth in mortality rates can be used as a statistically reliable predictor of COVID-19 crises.

scholarly journals An Early Warning Signal (EWS) Model for Predicting Financial Crisis in Emerging African Economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 101
Author(s):  
Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi ◽  
Devi Datt Tewari
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Early Warning Signal ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The devastating effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) have led to a renewed, global interest in the development of an early warning signal (EWS) model. The purpose of the EWS model is to alert policymakers and other stakeholders to the possibility of the occurrence of a crisis. This study estimates a EWS model for predicting the financial crisis in four emerging African economies using a multinomial logit model and a data set covering the period of January 1980 to December 2017. The result of the study suggests that emerging African economies are more likely to face financial crisis as debts continue to rise without a corresponding capacity to withstand capital flow reversal as well as excessive foreign exchange risk due to currency exposure. The result further indicates that rising debt exposure raises the likelihood of the economies remaining in a state of crisis. This result confirms the significance of a financial stability framework that addresses the issues confronting Africa’s emerging economies such as rising debt profile, liquidity and currency risk exposure.

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