The Impact of Regret on Exports

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-205
Author(s):  
Udo Broll ◽  
Kit Pong Wong ◽  
Peter Welzel
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Optimal Allocation ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Exchange Rate Uncertainty ◽  
Export Decisions ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Spot Exchange Rate ◽  
Regret Aversion ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We examine optimal production and export decisions of a firm facing exchange rate uncertainty, where the firm’s management is not only risk averse but also regret averse, i.e., is characterized by a utility function that includes disutility from having chosen ex post suboptimal alternatives. Experimental and empirical results support the view that managers tend to be regret averse. Under regret aversion a negative risk premium need not preclude the firm from exporting which would be the case if the firm were only risk averse. Exporting creates an implicit hedge against the possibility of regret when the realized spot exchange rate turns out to be high. The regret-averse firm as such has a greater ex ante incentive to export than the purely risk averse firm. Finally, we use a two-state example to illustrate that the firm optimally exports more (less) to the foreign country than in the case of pure risk aversion if the low (high) spot exchange rate is more likely to prevail. Regret aversion as such plays a crucial role in determining the firm’s optimal allocation between domestic sales and foreign exports.

The long-run stability of a small, open economy under crawling peg regime

2002 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-78
Author(s):  
S. Çiftçioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Output Stability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The paper analyses the long-run (steady-state) output and price stability of a small, open economy which adopts a “crawling-peg” type of exchange-rate regime in the presence of various kinds of random shocks. Analytical and simulation results suggest that with the exception of money demand shocks, an exchange rate policy which involves a relatively higher rate of indexation of the exchange rate to price level is likely to lead to the worsening of price stability for all types of shocks. On the other hand, the impact of adopting such a policy on output stability depends on the type of the shock; for policy shocks to the exchange rate and shocks to output demand, output stability is worsened whereas for the shocks to risk premium of domestic assets, supply price of domestic output and the wage rate, better output stability is achieved in the long run.

The nature of the shock matters: NiGEM estimations of the macroeconomic effects of recent dollar and euro fluctuations

2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. R30-R38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Haincourt
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Domestic Activity ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
Exchange Rate Shocks ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Exchange rate fluctuations have been particularly large since mid-2014, displaying divergent developments across the period. The nominal effective exchange rate of the dollar has appreciated by 15 per cent since June 2014, masking a 25 per cent appreciation to December 2016 followed by a depreciation of 8 per cent. Changes in the euro have turned positive after being negative. This article attempts to measure the impact of currency changes on domestic activity, accounting for the source of fluctuations. More specifically, by using the multi-country structural model NiGEM, we show that different types of exchange rate shocks can have different macroeconomic outcomes. Focusing on the period from January 2017 to February 2018, we show that the depreciation of the dollar, stemming mostly from changes in sentiment in foreign exchange markets, would in fact have been detrimental to US growth. A weaker currency, in this particular case, turned out to be no recipe for stronger growth. Similarly, the appreciation of the euro, triggered by a fall in the risk premium of the currency, may have been positive for growth. There are caveats to the exercise, but the results are nonetheless consistent with previous research pointing to the importance of the nature of the exchange rate shocks in estimating their impact on prices and growth.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Export Decisions in the UK

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Greenaway ◽  
Richard Kneller ◽  
Xufei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Uncertainty ◽  
Export Decisions ◽  
The Uk

scholarly journals The Impact of Currency Risk on Firm’s Value in Emerging Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-27
Author(s):  
Ilia Kuchin ◽  
Mariia Elkina ◽  
Yury Dranev
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Equity Capital ◽  
Cost Of Equity ◽  
Currency Risk ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

This study is dedicated to estimating the impact of currency risk on the cost of equity in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. Our contribution to the literature is that we obtain further evidence on pricing of exchange rate risk in developing countries which for now is quite scarce. These motivates our research which is dedicated to BRICS capital markets with Chinese stock market excluded since it is heavily regulated. The aim of the research is to determine whether in emerging countries stock markets currency risk is a significant factor that influence cost of equity capital of a company. Changes in the value of exchange rate can impact cash flows of a firm and their riskiness, hence, the value of the company. In our research we will discuss the influence of exchange rate movements on the value of the firm through their impact on the cost of equity. Specifically, we investigate whether companies that report substantial currency gains or losses have to pay a higher required return on equity. Furthermore, in this study we take an attempt to estimate currency risk premia for exposure to appreciation and depreciation of currency separately and identify possible differences. For each country three models that extend Fama-French Three Factor Model by incorporating currency risk are estimated. We used equal-weighted portfolio approach to construction currency risk factors. They are estimated using information about the ratio of currency gains to sales or the magnitude of covariation between equity returns and exchange rate changes. In the second case appreciation and depreciation of domestic currency against US dollar is considered separately. Results indicate that in Russia firms which report substantial currency losses pay a positive risk premium, while in Brazil, India and South Africa companies with significantly positive or negative currency gains pay a lower required return on equity than firms with almost zero currency gains. Finally, we are trying to explain estimation results using sectoral breakdown of product exports in each country of data sample.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Export Decisions in the UK

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 734-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Greenaway ◽  
Richard Kneller ◽  
Xufei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Uncertainty ◽  
Export Decisions ◽  
The Uk

IMPACT OF FOREIGN TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-35
Author(s):  
Esiaka Chuka ◽  
◽  
Uwaleke Uche ◽  
Nwala Nneka ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The Impact

This study investigated the impact of foreign trade on the economic growth of Nigeria for the period 1981–2018. Economists hold two contrasting opinions on the effect of foreign trade on a nation’s economy. While the positive-sum game school of thought holds the view that, when nations engage in foreign trade, there are bound to be mutual gains as each country’s utility is expanded, the negative-sum game school of thought holds the view that trade relations amongst nations of the world benefit one economy at the expense of the other. This study was embarked upon to ascertain which of these two conflicting opinions applies to Nigeria. Accordingly, the objective of the study was to determine the impact of foreign trade proxy by oil revenue, non-oil revenue, and foreign exchange rate on Nigeria’s economic growth proxy by gross domestic product growth rate. The study adopted the ex post facto research design and secondary data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to evaluate the effect of foreign trade on economic growth in Nigeria. Findings suggest that oil revenue, non-oil revenue, and foreign exchange rate have a significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommended that Nigeria’s oil revenue be heavily invested in non-oil revenue-earning productive sectors such as agriculture and mining to create the desired multiplier effect on the economy.

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