Climate change and deforestation increase the vulnerability of Amazonian forests to post‐fire grass invasion

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno L. De Faria ◽  
Arie Staal ◽  
Carlos A. Silva ◽  
Philip A. Martin ◽  
Prajjwal K. Panday ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Amazonian Forests ◽  
Grass Invasion

scholarly journals Climate change and deforestation boost post-fire grass invasion of Amazonian forests

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno L. De Faria ◽  
Arie Staal ◽  
Philip A. Martin ◽  
Prajjwal K. Panday ◽  
Andrea D. Castanho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tree Cover ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Degraded Ecosystem ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Time Required ◽  
Amazonian Forests ◽  
Grass Invasion

ABSTRACTInteractions among climate change, deforestation and fires are changing the stability of the Amazon forest, and may promote transitions to degraded grassy ecosystem states. However, our ability to predict the locations in the Amazon that are most vulnerable to these transitions is limited. In this study we used a dynamic carbon model to evaluate how drought, climate change and deforestation could affect the probability of post-fire grass invasion across the Amazon, and identify where grass-fire feedbacks may promote the persistence of species-poor degraded forests with savanna-like structure. Our results suggest that, under current climatic conditions, post-fire grass invasion could affect 11% of the Amazon, with the south-eastern Amazon at highest risk of invasion. We forecast that under business as usual climate change, by the end of the century areas with a high probability of post-fire grass invasion will increase to 20% of the Amazon. In 10% of the Amazon fire return interval will be shorter than the time required for canopy recovery, implying high risk of irreversible shifts to a fire-maintained degraded ecosystem state. Although resilience in canopy regeneration is evident in areas with low fire frequency, increased fire frequency could inhibit regeneration even in forests where grass is currently excluded, and push the Amazon forests towards a tipping point causing large areas of forest to transition to low tree cover state.

scholarly journals EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CENTRAL AMAZONIAN FORESTS: A TWO DECADES SYNTHESIS OF MONITORING TROPICAL BIODIVERSITY

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (02) ◽  
pp. 317-335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flávia Regina Capellotto Costa ◽  
◽  
Jansen Alfredo Sampaio Zuanon ◽  
Fabricio Beggiato Baccaro ◽  
Juliana Schietti de Almeida ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Biodiversity ◽  
Amazonian Forests

scholarly journals Internety się palą. O wybranych semiotyzacjach pożaru katedry Notre Dame

2019 ◽  
pp. 41-76
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Jankowska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Global Issues ◽  
Amazonian Forests ◽  
Biblical Symbolism

The aim of the article is to analyse some online reactions to the Notre Dame fire, especially the content of social media. The fire has often been interpreted through biblical symbolism as a sign of God’s presence, a warning or even a punishment. At the same time, various information bubbles have used the opportunity to discuss some basic global issues, e.g. climate change, comparing the burning cathedral to the burning Siberian and Amazonian forests. There are also some examples of the pure netlore which can be seen as an element of the process of carnivalization – a way out from the apocalyptic narratives of any kind.

scholarly journals Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (43) ◽  
pp. 13172-13177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip B. Duffy ◽  
Paulo Brando ◽  
Gregory P. Asner ◽  
Christopher B. Field
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The North ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Amazonian Forests ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Future intensification of Amazon drought resulting from climate change may cause increased fire activity, tree mortality, and emissions of carbon to the atmosphere across large areas of Amazonia. To provide a basis for addressing these issues, we examine properties of recent and future meteorological droughts in the Amazon in 35 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that the CMIP5 climate models, as a group, simulate important properties of historical meteorological droughts in the Amazon. In addition, this group of models reproduces observed relationships between Amazon precipitation and regional sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans. Assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario for future drivers of climate change, the models project increases in the frequency and geographic extent of meteorological drought in the eastern Amazon, and the opposite in the West. For the region as a whole, the CMIP5 models suggest that the area affected by mild and severe meteorological drought will nearly double and triple, respectively, by 2100. Extremes of wetness are also projected to increase after 2040. Specifically, the frequency of periods of unusual wetness and the area affected by unusual wetness are projected to increase after 2040 in the Amazon as a whole, including in locations where annual mean precipitation is projected to decrease. Our analyses suggest that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of extreme events that have been shown to alter and degrade Amazonian forests.

Averting robo-bees: why free-flying robotic bees are a bad idea

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 723-729
Author(s):  
Roslyn Gleadow ◽  
Jim Hanan ◽  
Alan Dorin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Computer Simulation ◽  
Food Security ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Plant Interactions ◽  
Plant Insect Interactions ◽  
Native Habitat ◽  
Insect Pollinators ◽  
Insect Interactions

Food security and the sustainability of native ecosystems depends on plant-insect interactions in countless ways. Recently reported rapid and immense declines in insect numbers due to climate change, the use of pesticides and herbicides, the introduction of agricultural monocultures, and the destruction of insect native habitat, are all potential contributors to this grave situation. Some researchers are working towards a future where natural insect pollinators might be replaced with free-flying robotic bees, an ecologically problematic proposal. We argue instead that creating environments that are friendly to bees and exploring the use of other species for pollination and bio-control, particularly in non-European countries, are more ecologically sound approaches. The computer simulation of insect-plant interactions is a far more measured application of technology that may assist in managing, or averting, ‘Insect Armageddon' from both practical and ethical viewpoints.

Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Millington ◽  
Peter M. Cox ◽  
Jonathan R. Moore ◽  
Gabriel Yvon-Durocher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Diffusion Rate ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Genetic Evolution ◽  
Rates Of Change ◽  
Rapid Climate Change ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Intraspecies Competition ◽  
High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

Climate change and breeding success: decline of the capercaillie in Scotland

2001 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Moss ◽  
James Oswald ◽  
David Baines
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Breeding Success
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