Understanding water and energy fluxes in the Amazonia: Lessons from an observation‐model intercomparison

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (9) ◽  
pp. 1802-1819
Author(s):  
Natalia Restrepo‐Coupe ◽  
Loren P. Albert ◽  
Marcos Longo ◽  
Ian Baker ◽  
Naomi M. Levine ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Observation Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Energy Fluxes

Simulação de cenários agrícolas futuros para algodoeiro com base em projeções de mudanças climáticas

Agrometeoros ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefany Amanda Quilles Fava ◽  
Evandro Henrique Figueiredo Moura da Silva ◽  
Luis Alberto Silva Antolin ◽  
Fábio Ricardo Marin
Keyword(s):  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Improvement Project

Diante da importância econômica e social da produção de fibras no Brasil e no mundo, é relevante antever os possíveis impactos do clima futuro na produtividade de algodão em uma região onde a cultura é representativa. O presente estudo teve como objetivo simular cenários agrícolas futuros para a cultura do algodão, com base em projeções de mudanças climáticas, para o município de Barreiras, BA. Para isso, o modelo DSSAT/CROPGRO-COTTON foi calibrado com as características genéticas da cultivar CNPA ITA 90. A produtividade foi simulada para os últimos 30 anos (1980 - 2010), representando a produtividade no clima atual e, a fim de representar a produtividade em 2050, foram realizadas simulações para o período de 2040 - 2069 para seis cenários climáticos futuros gerados a partir da metodologia descrita pelo Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). A produtividade média nos cenários futuros variou de 4.652 kg ha-1 a 5.389 kg ha-1, apresentando um expressivo aumento nos seis cenários estudados, porém indicando maior risco climático para o cultivo do algodoeiro nesta região.

scholarly journals CMIP5-Based Projection of Decadal and Seasonal Sea Surface Temperature Variations in East China Shelf Seas

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 367
Author(s):  
Huiqiang Lu ◽  
Chuan Xie ◽  
Cuicui Zhang ◽  
Jingsheng Zhai
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Yellow Sea ◽  
East China ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Projection Data ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Shelf Seas

The East China Shelf Seas, comprising the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the shelf region of East China Sea, play significant roles among the shelf seas of the Western North Pacific Ocean. The projection of sea surface temperature (SST) changes in these regions is a hot research topic in marine science. However, this is a very difficult task due to the lack of available long-term projection data. Recently, with the high development of simulation technology based on numerical models, the model intercomparison projects, e.g., Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), have become important ways of understanding climate changes. CMIP5 provides multiple models that can be used to estimate SST changes by 2100 under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). This paper developed a CMIP5-based SST investigation framework for the projection of decadal and seasonal variation of SST in East China Shelf Seas by 2100. Since the simulation results of CMIP5 models may have degrees of errors, this paper uses hydrological observation data from World Ocean Atlas 2018 (WOA18) for model validation and correction. This paper selects seven representative ones including ACCESS1.3, CCSM4, FIO-ESM, CESM1-CAM5, CMCC-CMS, NorESM1-ME, and Max Planck Institute Earth System Model of medium resolution (MPI-ESM-MR). The decadal and seasonal SST changes in the next 100 years (2030, 2060, 2090) are investigated by comparing with the present analysis in 2010. The experimental results demonstrate that SST will increase significantly by 2100: the decadal SST will increase by about 1.55 °C, while the seasonal SST will increase by 1.03–1.95 °C.

scholarly journals CAS FGOALS-f3-L Large-ensemble Simulations for the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bian He ◽  
Xiaoqi Zhang ◽  
Anmin Duan ◽  
Qing Bao ◽  
Yimin Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Lag ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Polar Amplification ◽  
Intercomparison Project

AbstractLarge-ensemble simulations of the atmosphere-only time-slice experiments for the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) were carried out by the model group of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS-f3-L). Eight groups of experiments forced by different combinations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) for pre-industrial, present-day, and future conditions were performed and published. The time-lag method was used to generate the 100 ensemble members, with each member integrating from 1 April 2000 to 30 June 2001 and the first two months as the spin-up period. The basic model responses of the surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation were documented. The results indicate that Arctic amplification is mainly caused by Arctic SIC forcing changes. The SAT responses to the Arctic SIC decrease alone show an obvious increase over high latitudes, which is similar to the results from the combined forcing of SST and SIC. However, the change in global precipitation is dominated by the changes in the global SST rather than SIC, partly because tropical precipitation is mainly driven by local SST changes. The uncertainty of the model responses was also investigated through the analysis of the large-ensemble members. The relative roles of SST and SIC, together with their combined influence on Arctic amplification, are also discussed. All of these model datasets will contribute to PAMIP multi-model analysis and improve the understanding of polar amplification.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 6760
Author(s):  
Isaac Kwesi Nooni ◽  
Daniel Fiifi T. Hagan ◽  
Guojie Wang ◽  
Waheed Ullah ◽  
Jiao Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Near Future

The main goal of this study was to assess the interannual variations and spatial patterns of projected changes in simulated evapotranspiration (ET) in the 21st century over continental Africa based on the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) provided by the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM) model in the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) framework. The projected spatial and temporal changes were computed for three time slices: 2020–2039 (near future), 2040–2069 (mid-century), and 2080–2099 (end-of-the-century), relative to the baseline period (1995–2014). The results show that the spatial pattern of the projected ET was not uniform and varied across the climate region and under the SSP-RCPs scenarios. Although the trends varied, they were statistically significant for all SSP-RCPs. The SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 projected higher ET seasonality than SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. In general, we suggest the need for modelers and forecasters to pay more attention to changes in the simulated ET and their impact on extreme events. The findings provide useful information for water resources managers to develop specific measures to mitigate extreme events in the regions most affected by possible changes in the region’s climate. However, readers are advised to treat the results with caution as they are based on a single GCM model. Further research on multi-model ensembles (as more models’ outputs become available) and possible key drivers may provide additional information on CMIP6 ET projections in the region.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document