Trade-offs for food production, nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (10) ◽  
pp. 4303-4317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lena R. Boysen ◽  
Wolfgang Lucht ◽  
Dieter Gerten
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Nature Conservation ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
Trade Offs

Ratcheting Ambition to Limit Warming to 1.55C Trade-Offs between Emission Reductions and Carbon Dioxide Removal

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Holz ◽  
Lori S Siegel ◽  
Eleanor Johnston ◽  
Andrew P Jones ◽  
John Sterman
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Trade Offs

scholarly journals Collateral transgression of planetary boundaries due to climate engineering by terrestrial carbon dioxide removal

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 783-796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vera Heck ◽  
Jonathan F. Donges ◽  
Wolfgang Lucht
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Small Range ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Planetary Boundaries ◽  
Climate Engineering ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon

Abstract. The planetary boundaries framework provides guidelines for defining thresholds in environmental variables. Their transgression is likely to result in a shift in Earth system functioning away from the relatively stable Holocene state. As the climate system is approaching critical thresholds of atmospheric carbon, several climate engineering methods are discussed, aiming at a reduction of atmospheric carbon concentrations to control the Earth's energy balance. Terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) via afforestation or bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage are part of most climate change mitigation scenarios that limit global warming to less than 2 °C. We analyse the co-evolutionary interaction of societal interventions via tCDR and the natural dynamics of the Earth's carbon cycle. Applying a conceptual modelling framework, we analyse how the degree of anticipation of the climate problem and the intensity of tCDR efforts with the aim of staying within a "safe" level of global warming might influence the state of the Earth system with respect to other carbon-related planetary boundaries. Within the scope of our approach, we show that societal management of atmospheric carbon via tCDR can lead to a collateral transgression of the planetary boundary of land system change. Our analysis indicates that the opportunities to remain in a desirable region within carbon-related planetary boundaries only exist for a small range of anticipation levels and depend critically on the underlying emission pathway. While tCDR has the potential to ensure the Earth system's persistence within a carbon-safe operating space under low-emission pathways, it is unlikely to succeed in a business-as-usual scenario.

scholarly journals Collateral transgression of planetary boundaries due to climate engineering by terrestrial carbon dioxide removal

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vera Heck ◽  
Jonathan F. Donges ◽  
Wolfgang Lucht
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Planetary Boundaries ◽  
Climate Engineering ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon

Abstract. The planetary boundaries framework as proposed by Rockström et al. (2009) provides guidelines for defining thresholds in environmental variables. Their transgression is likely to result in a shift in Earth system functioning away from the relatively stable Holocene state. As the climate change boundary is already transgressed, several climate engineering methods are discussed, aiming at a reduction of atmospheric carbon concentrations to control the Earth's energy balance. Terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) via afforestation or bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage are part of most climate change mitigation scenarios that limit global warming to less than 2 °C. We analyse the co-evolutionary interaction of societal interventions via tCDR and the natural dynamics of the Earth's carbon cycle. Applying a conceptual modelling framework, we analyse how societal monitoring and management of atmospheric CO2 concentrations with the aim of staying within a "safe" level of global warming might influence the state of the Earth system with respect to other carbon-related planetary boundaries. Within the scope of our approach, we show that societal management of atmospheric carbon via tCDR can lead to a transgression of the planetary boundaries of land system change and ocean acidification. Our analysis indicates that the opportunities to remain in a desirable region within carbon-related planetary boundaries depend critically on the sensitivity and strength of the tCDR management system, as well as underlying emission pathways. While tCDR has the potential to ensure the Earth system's persistence within a carbon safe operating space under low emission pathways, this potential decreases rapidly for medium to high emission pathways.

scholarly journals Ratcheting ambition to limit warming to 1.5 °C–trade-offs between emission reductions and carbon dioxide removal

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 064028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Holz ◽  
Lori S Siegel ◽  
Eleanor Johnston ◽  
Andrew P Jones ◽  
John Sterman
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Trade Offs

scholarly journals Evaluating the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential of improved forest management and accelerated forest conversion in Norway

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 5087-5105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan M. Bright ◽  
Micky Allen ◽  
Clara Antón‐Fernández ◽  
Helmer Belbo ◽  
Lise Dalsgaard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Forest Conversion ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon

Evaluating the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potential of large-scale aff-/reforestation and improved forest management in Norway

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Bright ◽  
Micky Allen ◽  
Clara Anton-Fernandez ◽  
Lise Dalsgaard ◽  
Stephanie Eisner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Net Zero

<p>As a carbon dioxide removal measure, the Norwegian government is currently considering a policy of large-scale planting of spruce (<em>Picea abies</em> (L) H. Karst) on non-forested lands (i.e., aff-/reforestation) and secondary forested lands dominated by early successional broadleaved tree species (i.e., improved forest management).  Given the need to achieve net zero emissions in the latter half of the 21<sup>st</sup> century in effort to limit the global mean temperature rise to “well below” 2 °C, the mitigation potential of such a policy is unclear given relatively slow tree growth rates in the region.  Further convoluting the picture is the magnitude and relevance of surface albedo changes linked to such projects, which typically counter the benefits of an enhanced forest CO<sub>2</sub> sink in high latitude regions.  Here, we carry out a rigorous empirical assessment of the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potential of large-scale aff-/reforestation (AR) and improved forest management (IFM) projects in Norway, taking into account transient developments in both terrestrial carbon sinks and surface albedo over the 21<sup>st</sup> century and beyond.  We find that surface albedo changes would likely play a negligible role in counteracting the carbon cycle benefit of tCDR, yet given slow forest growth rates in the region, meaningful tCDR benefits from AR and IFM projects would not be realized until the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century, with maximum benefits occurring around 2150.  We estimate Norway’s total accumulated tCDR potential at 2100 and 2150 (including surface albedo changes) to be 447 (± 240) and 852 (± 295) Mt CO<sub>2</sub>-eq. at mean costs of US$ 29 (± 18) and US$ 26 (± 14) per ton CDR, respectively.  For perspective, the accumulated tCDR potential at 2100 represents around 8 years of Norway’s total current annual production-based (i.e., territorial) CO<sub>2</sub>-eq. emissions.</p>

scholarly journals Navigating Potential Hype and Opportunity in Governing Marine Carbon Removal

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miranda Boettcher ◽  
Kerryn Brent ◽  
Holly Jean Buck ◽  
Sean Low ◽  
Duncan McLaren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Knowledge Systems ◽  
Marine Environments ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
Carbon Removal ◽  
Climate Governance ◽  
Modeling Practices ◽  
Carbon Economy

As the technical and political challenges of land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches become more apparent, the oceans may be the new “blue” frontier for carbon drawdown strategies in climate governance. Drawing on lessons learnt from the way terrestrial carbon dioxide removal emerged, we explore increasing overall attention to marine environments and mCDR projects, and how this could manifest in four entwined knowledge systems and governance sectors. We consider how developments within and between these “frontiers” could result in different futures—where hype and over-promising around marine carbon drawdown could enable continued time-buying for the carbon economy without providing significant removals, or where reforms to modeling practices, policy development, innovation funding, and legal governance could seek co-benefits between ocean protection, economy, and climate.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document