Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change

Ever since their evolution, forests have been interacting with the Earth’s climate. Species diversity is particularly high in forests of stable moist tropical climates, but patterns of diversity differ among various taxa. Species richness typically implies high ecosystem resilience to ecosystem disturbances; many species are present to fill in newly created niches and facilitate regeneration. Species loss, on the other hand, often entails environmental degradation and erosion of essential ecosystem services. Until now species extinction rates have been highest on tropical islands which are characterized by a high degree of species endemism but comparatively low species richness (and therefore high vulnerability to invasive species). Deforestation and forest degradation in many countries has lead to forest fragmentation with similar effects on increasingly insularized and vulnerable forest habitat patches. If forest fragments are becoming too small to support important keystone species, further extinctions may occur in cascading ways, and the vegetation structure and composition may eventually collapse. Until now relatively few reported cases of species extinctions can be directly attributed to climate change. However, climate change in combination with habitat destruction, degradation, and fragmentation may lead to new waves of species extinctions in the near future as species are set on the move but are unable to reach cooler refuges due to altered, obstructing landscapes. To mitigate the future risks of extinctions as well as climate change, major efforts should be undertaken to protect intact large areas of forests and restore wildlife corridors. Carbon sequestration may be seen as just one of many other environmental services of forest biodiversity that deserve economic valuation as alternatives to conversion to often unsustainable agricultural uses.

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Preventing species extinctions resulting from climate change

Nature Climate Change ◽

10.1038/nclimate2455 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 4 (12) ◽

pp. 1048-1049 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

H. Resit Akçakaya ◽

Stuart H. M. Butchart ◽

James E. M. Watson ◽

Richard G. Pearson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Extinctions

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Climate change aggravates bog species extinctions in the Black Forest (Germany)

Diversity and Distributions ◽

10.1111/ddi.13184 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Thomas Sperle ◽

Helge Bruelheide

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Black Forest ◽

Species Extinctions

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Faculty Opinions recommendation of Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change.

Faculty Opinions – Post-Publication Peer Review of the Biomedical Literature ◽

10.3410/f.725266580.793510142 ◽

2015 ◽

Author(s):

Joshua Lawler

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Extinctions

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Introducing Contemporary Environmental Ethics

10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199941339.013.1 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Stephen M. Gardiner ◽

Allen Thompson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Environmental Ethics ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Aquatic Ecosystems ◽

Global Climate ◽

Human Beings ◽

History Analysis ◽

The World ◽

Broad Variety ◽

Species Extinctions

Today humanity faces radical global climate change, mass species extinctions, and unprecedented transformations to both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems across the globe. Environmental ethics is an academic subfield of philosophy concerned with normative and evaluative propositions about the world of nature and, perhaps more generally, the moral fabric of relations between human beings and the world we occupy. This Handbook contains 45 newly commissioned essays written by leading experts and emerging voices and represent some of the best and most contemporary thinking in environmental ethics. The chapters range over a broad variety of issues, concepts, and perspectives that are both central to and characteristic of the field, thus providing an authoritative but accessible account of the history, analysis, and prospect of ideas that are essential to contemporary environmental ethics.

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Averting robo-bees: why free-flying robotic bees are a bad idea

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences ◽

10.1042/etls20190063 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (6) ◽

pp. 723-729

Author(s):

Roslyn Gleadow ◽

Jim Hanan ◽

Alan Dorin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Computer Simulation ◽

Food Security ◽

European Countries ◽

Plant Interactions ◽

Plant Insect Interactions ◽

Native Habitat ◽

Insect Pollinators ◽

Insect Interactions

Food security and the sustainability of native ecosystems depends on plant-insect interactions in countless ways. Recently reported rapid and immense declines in insect numbers due to climate change, the use of pesticides and herbicides, the introduction of agricultural monocultures, and the destruction of insect native habitat, are all potential contributors to this grave situation. Some researchers are working towards a future where natural insect pollinators might be replaced with free-flying robotic bees, an ecologically problematic proposal. We argue instead that creating environments that are friendly to bees and exploring the use of other species for pollination and bio-control, particularly in non-European countries, are more ecologically sound approaches. The computer simulation of insect-plant interactions is a far more measured application of technology that may assist in managing, or averting, ‘Insect Armageddon' from both practical and ethical viewpoints.

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Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences ◽

10.1042/etls20180113 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 221-231 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Rebecca Millington ◽

Peter M. Cox ◽

Jonathan R. Moore ◽

Gabriel Yvon-Durocher

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Diffusion Rate ◽

Individual Species ◽

Genetic Evolution ◽

Rates Of Change ◽

Rapid Climate Change ◽

Warming Climate ◽

Intraspecies Competition ◽

High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

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