scholarly journals Forest responses to last‐millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine R. Rollinson ◽  
Andria Dawson ◽  
Ann M. Raiho ◽  
John W. Williams ◽  
Michael C. Dietze ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variations ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Ecosystem Sensitivity ◽  
Hydroclimate Variability

scholarly journals Forest responses to last-millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Rollinson ◽  
Andria Dawson ◽  
Ann Raiho ◽  
John Williams ◽  
Michael Dietze ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variations ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Ecosystem Sensitivity ◽  
Hydroclimate Variability

scholarly journals The Link between ENSO-like Forcing and Hydroclimate Variability of Coastal East Asia during the Last Millennium

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungjae Park ◽  
Jiwoo Han ◽  
Qiuhong Jin ◽  
Junbeom Bahk ◽  
Sangheon Yi
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Hydroclimate Variability

scholarly journals Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium – insights from a climate model–proxy data comparison

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 1831-1850 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristina Seftigen ◽  
Hugues Goosse ◽  
Francois Klein ◽  
Deliang Chen
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Hydroclimate Variability ◽  
Transient Simulations

Abstract. The integration of climate proxy information with general circulation model (GCM) results offers considerable potential for deriving greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate variability, as well as unique opportunities for out-of-sample evaluations of model performance. In this study, we combine insights from a new tree-ring hydroclimate reconstruction from Scandinavia with projections from a suite of forced transient simulations of the last millennium and historical intervals from the CMIP5 and PMIP3 archives. Model simulations and proxy reconstruction data are found to broadly agree on the modes of atmospheric variability that produce droughts–pluvials in the region. Despite these dynamical similarities, large differences between simulated and reconstructed hydroclimate time series remain. We find that the GCM-simulated multi-decadal and/or longer hydroclimate variability is systematically smaller than the proxy-based estimates, whereas the dominance of GCM-simulated high-frequency components of variability is not reflected in the proxy record. Furthermore, the paleoclimate evidence indicates in-phase coherencies between regional hydroclimate and temperature on decadal timescales, i.e., sustained wet periods have often been concurrent with warm periods and vice versa. The CMIP5–PMIP3 archive suggests, however, out-of-phase coherencies between the two variables in the last millennium. The lack of adequate understanding of mechanisms linking temperature and moisture supply on longer timescales has serious implications for attribution and prediction of regional hydroclimate changes. Our findings stress the need for further paleoclimate data–model intercomparison efforts to expand our understanding of the dynamics of hydroclimate variability and change, to enhance our ability to evaluate climate models, and to provide a more comprehensive view of future drought and pluvial risks.

scholarly journals Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason E. Smerdon ◽  
Jürg Luterbacher ◽  
Steven J. Phipps ◽  
Kevin J. Anchukaitis ◽  
Toby Ault ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Model Comparisons ◽  
Proxy Model ◽  
Hydroclimate Variability ◽  
The Common ◽  
Common Era

Abstract. Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal-to-centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate model simulations are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both, while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully-coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as well as a discussion of expected improvements in estimated forcings, models and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons, as well as how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.

A tree-ring reconstruction of East Anglian (UK) hydroclimate variability over the last millennium

2012 ◽  
Vol 40 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1019-1039 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard J. Cooper ◽  
Thomas M. Melvin ◽  
Ian Tyers ◽  
Rob J. S. Wilson ◽  
Keith R. Briffa
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Hydroclimate Variability ◽  
Tree Ring Reconstruction

A tree-ring field reconstruction of Fennoscandian summer hydroclimate variability for the last millennium

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 3141-3154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristina Seftigen ◽  
Jesper Björklund ◽  
Edward R. Cook ◽  
Hans W. Linderholm
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Field Reconstruction ◽  
Hydroclimate Variability

scholarly journals Climate Variability, Volcanic Forcing, and Last Millennium Hydroclimate Extremes

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (11) ◽  
pp. 4309-4327 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha Stevenson ◽  
Jonathan T. Overpeck ◽  
John Fasullo ◽  
Sloan Coats ◽  
Luke Parsons ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Ocean Variability ◽  
Large Ensembles ◽  
Hydroclimate Variability ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
The Caribbean

Abstract Multidecadal hydroclimate variability has been expressed as “megadroughts” (dry periods more severe and prolonged than observed over the twentieth century) and corresponding “megapluvial” wet periods in many regions around the world. The risk of such events is strongly affected by modes of coupled atmosphere–ocean variability and by external impacts on climate. Accurately assessing the mechanisms for these interactions is difficult, since it requires large ensembles of millennial simulations as well as long proxy time series. Here, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble is used to examine statistical associations among megaevents, coupled climate modes, and forcing from major volcanic eruptions. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly affects hydroclimate extremes: larger ENSO amplitude reduces megadrought risk and persistence in the southwestern United States, the Sahel, monsoon Asia, and Australia, with corresponding increases in Mexico and the Amazon. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) also alters megadrought risk, primarily in the Caribbean and the Amazon. Volcanic influences are felt primarily through enhancing AMO amplitude, as well as alterations in the structure of both ENSO and AMO teleconnections, which lead to differing manifestations of megadrought. These results indicate that characterizing hydroclimate variability requires an improved understanding of both volcanic climate impacts and variations in ENSO/AMO teleconnections.

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