scholarly journals The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Cigna ◽  
Philipp Meinen ◽  
Patrick Schulte ◽  
Nils Steinhoff
Keyword(s):  
Trade Diversion ◽  
The Impact

Was India Right in Not Joining RCEP? A Cost–Benefit Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 097492842110477
Author(s):  
Monika Jain
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

India dropped out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which included the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, China, South Korea, New Zealand, Japan and Australia, after negotiating for almost seven years in November 2018 on the grounds of national interest and also that free trade agreements (FTAs) did not amount to free trade and led to more trade diversion than trade creation. The cost and benefit of a regional agreement depend on the amount of trade creation with respect to trade diversion (Panagriya, 2000). This study tries to examine India’s concerns and at the same time, highlights the cost of not joining RCEP. India’s trade deficit with 11 out of the 15 RCEP nations has been a major cause of concern. Unfavourable trade balance, concerns about the impact on dairy sector, economic slowdown, past experience with FTA’s, China factor, data localisation, rules of origin, the experience of ASEAN countries with Sino-FTA have been some of the reasons behind India’s decision to opt-out of this mega multilateral agreement. Also, bilateral trade agreements with some RCEP countries such as Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and South Korea were operational. A multilateral trade agreement with ASEAN countries was very much in place. So, trade between India and 12 of the RCEP member countries would not have changed much after India’s inclusion in RCEP. The impact of lower tariffs would have been evident for the remaining three countries: China, Australia and New Zealand. Furthermore, there was fear of a massive surge in imports of manufactures from China, dairy imports from Australia and New Zealand. This study also examines the long term impact of this decision and if India has missed out on becoming a part of the global value chain and gaining greater market access in the Asia Pacific region. India’s policy of import substitution and protectionism did not capitulate desired results in the past. Hence, a critical evaluation of India’s decision and some validation on her concerns and fears have been done.

Investment will drive solid Taiwanese growth in 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
The Impact

Subject Taiwan growth prospects. Significance Taiwan’s GDP grew by 3.38% year-on-year in October-December 2019. This is an acceleration from 2.6% year-on-year growth in the second quarter to 3.0% in the third. Consumer spending has grown steadily, while investment reshoring and exports to the United States have grown even more strongly due to trade diversion designed to mitigate the impact of US-China trade tensions. Impacts Taiwan is not currently part of the Asia Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and its exclusion may limit its trade opportunities. If Taiwan learns from Japan’s experience of adjusting to an ageing population, automated social services could emerge as leading sectors. The president has a renewed mandate to introduce reforms aimed at raising wages and creating jobs, especially in high-skill industries.

scholarly journals Assessing economic development through trade relations and educational markets integration (the case of Vietnam within ACFTA)

2020 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 13016
Author(s):  
Thinh Bui Tien ◽  
Hung Tran Van
Keyword(s):  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Full Effect ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Trade Center ◽  
Trade Partner ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper applies the gravity model of trade with panel database to assess the impact of ACFTA on the export and import of ACFTA’s members from 2001 to 2018. The database was taken from World Bank Database, International Trade Center and CEPII Research and Expertise on The World Economy. The estimation results review that ACFTA has positive trade creation and trade diversion effect on the export of all ACFTA’s members including Vietnam, ACFTA does play a pivotal role in the intra – regional export and extra – regional export of Vietnam and other ACFTA’s members. Furthermore, within the scope of the paper, compared to other FTA of ASEAN, the magnitude of trade creation of ACFTA is considerably large. This is consistent with the fact that China is gradually becoming a fundamental trade partner with ASEAN and Vietnam in particular. Contrary to the positive effect of ACFTA on members’ export, the estimation results show that ACFTA is causing negative trade diversion effect on the import of ASEAN members within ACFTA including Vietnam. This is in line with the fact that ASEAN and Vietnam in particular have been running trade deficit with China since 2010 at the expense of import from other trading partners, and the trade deficit has been increasing since ACFTA came into full effect.

scholarly journals TRADE CREATION DAN TRADE DIVERSION ANTARA INDONESIA DAN NEGARA-NEGARA ASEAN-KOREA

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-81
Author(s):  
Tresna Ritaningsih ◽  
Dedi Budiman Hakim ◽  
Sahara Sahara
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Regional Integration ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Implementation Phase ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia has several free trade agreements with trading partners that aimed to eliminate tariff and non tariff trade barriers. One of the free trade agreements is ASEAN-Korea FTA. Trade agreement in goods in ASEAN-Korea FTA was agreed since 2007 and now it is entering the implementation phase. The objective of this research is to determine whether the ASEAN-Korea FTA would increase the trade flows between Indonesia and ASEAN-Korea’ countries by analyzing the impact of regional integration on trade creation and trade diversion. This research is utilized balance panel data including 13 countries from 1998-2012. The empirical result shows that all Indonesia's trading sectors experienced decline because of trade diversion and trade creation does not occur. Indonesia's import trading with the non-member countries of ASEAN-Korea is 68% lower than the existing trading. Key word: trade creation, trade diversion, free trade agreement, trade in goods

scholarly journals Does AFTA Create or Divert Trade?

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1850122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Cabalu ◽  
Cristina Alfonso
Keyword(s):  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Area ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Commodity Trade ◽  
Trade Patterns ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
The Impact

In this article the changes in trade patterns introduced by the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) are examined. Variation in growth trends and the shift-and-share methodology are used to identify the impact of trade liberalization under AFTA on intra- and extra-regional commodity trade. Data at the commodity level are used and the results indicate that AFTA had trade creation effects, with little evidence of trade diversion.

scholarly journals The Impact of NAFTA on the United States

2001 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary E Burfisher ◽  
Sherman Robinson ◽  
Karen Thierfelder
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
The United States ◽  
Trade Creation ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

We describe the main economic arguments posed for and against the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) during the U.S. policy debate. To evaluate these arguments, we analyze recent trade data and survey post-NAFTA studies. We find that both the U.S. and Mexico benefit from NAFTA, with much larger relative benefits for Mexico. NAFTA also has had little effect on the U.S. labor market. These results confirm the consensus opinion of economists at the time of the debate. Finally, studies find that trade creation greatly exceeds trade diversion in the region under NAFTA, especially in intermediate goods.

Evaluating the Trade, Revenue and Welfare Implication of Plantation Crops under ASEAN–India FTA

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 224-241
Author(s):  
Subhash Jagdambe ◽  
Shaikh Mohd Mouzam
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Trade Effect ◽  
Restrictive Trade ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Plantation Crops ◽  
The Impact

This article examines the impact of ASEAN–India Free Trade Agreement on India’s special products categories, namely, coffee, tea and pepper based on partial equilibrium model. The Software for Market Analysis and Restrictive Trade (SMART) model has been used to estimate the trade creation (TC) and trade diversion (TD) effect, revenue effect and welfare effect for the above-mentioned commodities. The results from the SMART simulation analysis indicate that the increase in trade for both the scenarios is mainly driven by TC rather than TD. Further, the study also assesses how the total trade effect is distributed across the major ASEAN countries for each commodity and found that Indonesia and Vietnam are the biggest gainers in terms of TC effect in both the scenarios. JEL Classification: F13, F15, Q1

scholarly journals NAFTA's Impact on Korean Exports

2005 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-55
Author(s):  
Kye Woo Lee
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
Gravity Models ◽  
External Trade ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The North ◽  
Trading Market ◽  
The Impact

Many Asian countries arc concerned that as the negotiations for the propa;el Free T rale Agreement of the Americas (FT AA) are concluded in 2005, it may erode their share of the largest trading market, North America. As a first step roward assessing the impact of the FTAA on Asian countries, rhis paper evaluates rhe effects of FTAA's predecessor, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), on Korean external trade. Analys.as of the shifi: in shares, rrade intensity indices, and gravity models are used to assess the impact at a macro level, while trade diversion aod crearion effects are tested at sub-industty levels. Some lessons for future action are also drawn.

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