scholarly journals DOES THE GREAT RECESSION IMPLY THE END OF THE GREAT MODERATION? INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 745-760 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amélie Charles ◽  
Olivier Darné ◽  
Laurent Ferrara
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Great Moderation ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
International Evidence

Central Banking before the Great Recession

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Papadia ◽  
Tuomas Vӓlimӓki
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Great Moderation ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Interest Rate

The chapter describes the historical process as well as the analytical and empirical factors that, at the end of the twentieth century, led to the dominance, in advanced economies, of a central bank model based on an independent institution devoted to price stability as its overriding objective. The central bank pre-crisis model was elegant, performing, and efficient. However, it could not easily accommodate the pursuit of a traditionally important central bank objective: financial stability. Indeed, since central banks have, in essence, just one tool, that is, the interest rate, the pursuit of a financial stability objective in addition to a price stability objective could create dilemma situations. In the two decades between the mid-1980s and the mid-2000s, the economies of advanced economies were very stable, and this period was thus identified as Great Moderation. However, subsequent experience showed that, in this period, the crisis was incubating.

A NOTE ON MEASURING US TIME SERIES VOLATILITY DURING THE GREAT MODERATION

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Isaiah Hull
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Labor Markets ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Text Analysis ◽  
Sharp Increase ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Great Moderation ◽  
Frequency Shifts ◽  
The Great Recession

We identify volatility breaks in all testable series in the FRED database over the 1957–2013 period. This yields 17,681 breaks, which we categorize using text analysis. We show that 70.5% of series categories experienced a decline in volatility over the 1985–1999 period, suggesting that the Great Moderation was far broader in scope than the literature has documented. We also show that this decline reversed in 2000, leading to a sharp increase in volatility for most time series categories; however, this did not fully materialize in GDP volatility until the Great Recession. Finally, we identify labor markets, demographics, finance, and government debt as potential drivers of low-frequency shifts in volatility over the 1957–2013 period.

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