Do economic integration agreements affect trade predictability? A group effect analysis

Although the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) was established at the end of 2015, some of the objectives remain for it to be fully realized, and many of the actions and measures in the AEC Blueprint have not been fully implemented and have to be carried forward to future years. Among these “works in progress” is transport and other physical infrastructure, which is necessary for the physical flows of goods and people. Analysis of free trade and economic integration agreements do not usually place emphasis on the importance of the physical delivery of the goods and people flows made possible by trade and investment liberalizations, particularly in geographically dispersed and diverse regions such as ASEAN. This paper examines the importance of physical connectivity to implement the AEC. It explores the various dimensions of land, maritime, and aviation connectivity with the complex agreements, national policies and regulatory frameworks and challenges of implementation and infrastructure financing, including the Chinese initiative of the One Belt-One Road and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

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The GATS Rules on Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs)

Preferential Services Liberalization ◽

10.1017/9781316998120.002 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 47-72

Keyword(s):

Economic Integration ◽

Economic Integration Agreements

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EU economic integration agreements, Brexit and trade

Review of World Economics ◽

10.1007/s10290-020-00379-x ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 156 (3) ◽

pp. 443-473

Author(s):

Marie M. Stack ◽

Martin Bliss

Keyword(s):

Economic Integration ◽

Economic Integration Agreements

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Trade creation and trade diversion of economic integration agreements revisited: a constrained panel pseudo-maximum likelihood approach

Review of World Economics ◽

10.1007/s10290-020-00389-9 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 156 (4) ◽

pp. 985-1024 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Michael Pfaffermayr

Keyword(s):

Economic Integration ◽

Functional Dependence ◽

Trade Diversion ◽

Delta Method ◽

Trade Creation ◽

Maximum Likelihood Approach ◽

Likelihood Approach ◽

Economic Integration Agreements ◽

Cost Parameters ◽

Pseudo Maximum Likelihood

Abstract For PPML estimation of high-dimensional structural gravity panel models it proves useful to exploit the equilibrium restrictions imposed by the system of multilateral resistances. The main advantage of this approach lies in the functional dependence of the parameters of all dummy variables on the structural trade cost parameters. Moreover, the delta method is used to establish confidence intervals of counterfactual changes. Using the constrained panel PPML estimator for a panel of 65 countries in the period 1994–2012 indicates significant trade creation of economic integration agreements with average ranging in between 12.2 and 30.3% in 2012. Results also point to substantial domestic and international trade diversion, where the former dominates the latter.

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