DYNAMIC CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURNS AND EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS DEPENDENCE ON THE CONDITIONAL VOLATILITIES - THE CASE OF SEVERAL EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

2015 ◽  
Vol 68 (S1) ◽  
pp. 28-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dejan Živkov ◽  
Jovan Njegić ◽  
Jasmina Pavlović
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
Eastern European Countries

scholarly journals Effective Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern European Countries: Cyclicality and Relationship with Macroeconomic Fundamentals

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Stavárek ◽  
Cynthia Miglietti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Arrangements ◽  
Eastern European Countries

Abstract This paper examines the evolution of effective exchange rates in nine Central and Eastern European countries in terms of development trends, volatility and cyclicality. Consequently, it provides direct empirical evidence on the nature of the relationship between effective exchange rates and selected macroeconomic fundamentals, addressing a key precondition of numerous exchange rate determination models and theories that attempt to explain the role of exchange rates in the economy. The results suggest that flexible exchange rate arrangements are reflected in both nominal and real effective exchange rates having higher volatility and variability. Furthermore, the results provide mixed evidence in terms of intensity, direction and cyclicality, but show a weak correlation between exchange rates and fundamentals. Sufficiently high coefficients are found only for money supply. Consequently, using fundamentals for the determination of exchange rates and using the exchange rate to explain economic development may be of limited use for the countries analyzed.

scholarly journals Economic Growth, Corporate Earnings And Equity Returns: Evidence From Central And Eastern European Countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 93-111
Author(s):  
Jerzy Gajdka ◽  
Piotr Pietraszewski
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Corporate Earnings ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
The Impact

This paper discusses the links between economic growth, corporate earnings and stock returns. Cross-country correlation studies do not confirm the intuitive assumption that higher returns on equities are more likely in the fastergrowing countries. The problem can be analysed more deeply by analysing stock returns with respect to the growth of earnings per share (EPS) and changes in valuation (P/E ratio). Within this framework, two types of factors explaining the lack of correlation between GDP growth and stock returns are distinguished. The empirical research on developed and emerging market countries reveals that in the long run stock price returns are driven by companies’ earnings, and that the lack of correlation between GDP growth and equity returns is almost fully explained by the divergence between GDP growth and EPS growth. In this article the results of an investigation into this area, based on a sample of post-communist Central and Eastern European countries, are presented and discussed. It was found that in these countries changes in valuation (P/E ratio) appear to play an important role, cancelling the impact of EPS growth on stock returns.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility, Currency Misalignment, and Risk of Recession in the Central and Eastern European Countries

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Victor Shevchuk ◽  
Roman Kopych
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Heritage Foundation ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Eastern European Countries

This study is aimed at estimation of the exchange rate volatility and its impact on the business cycle fluctuations in four central and eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania). Exchange rate volatility is estimated with the EGARCH(1,1) model. It is found that exchange rate volatility is affected by the components of the Index of Economic Freedom from the Heritage Foundation, besides inflation and crisis developments. The empirical results using GMM estimation technique and comprehensive robustness checks suggest that exchange rate volatility reduces the risk of recession in the Czech Republic while the opposite effect is found for Hungary and Romania, with a neutrality for Poland. These findings continue to hold after controlling for the fiscal and monetary policy indicators. There is evidence that the RER undervaluation prevents sliding into a recession on a credible basis in Poland only, with a neutral stance for other countries. Except in Romania, higher levels of economic freedom is associated with worsening of the cyclical position of output. Among other results, stabilization policies in the recession imply fiscal tightening for the Czech Republic and Romania, higher money supply for the Czech Republic and Poland, and lower central bank reference rate for Hungary.

scholarly journals Consequences of Employing Different Exchange Rate Regimes in the Situation of Financial Crisis on the Example of Central-Eastern European Countries

Equilibrium ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-49
Author(s):  
Dorota Zbierzchowska
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Exchange Rate Regimes ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
Eastern European Countries

It is characteristic for the countries of Central-Eastern Europe to employ a great variety of exchange rate regimes: by resigning from their own currency and participating in monetary unions through the systems of currency board arrangement; by employing the systems of conventional fixed pegged arrangements; and by the floating systems. In the situation of global financial crisis and liberalization of capital flow in the Central-Eastern Europe countries profits and dangers of using certain solutions in the scope of exchange rate are clearly visible. The aim of this paper is to present theoretical profits and costs of utilizing various kinds of exchange rate regimes and their consequences for the autonomy of monetary policy. The paper also compares contemporary economical situation of the Central-Eastern European countries, what allows the author to indicate those countries, where the limitations stemming from the accepted system of exchange rate had negative consequences for the condition of their economy in general.

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