Causal inference in melanoma epidemiology using Mendelian randomization

Author(s):  
K.J.L. Bell
Author(s):  
Jianguo Xu ◽  
Muyang Li ◽  
Ya Gao ◽  
Ming Liu ◽  
Shuzhen Shi ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Haworth ◽  
Pik Fang Kho ◽  
Pernilla Lif Holgerson ◽  
Liang-Dar Hwang ◽  
Nicholas J. Timpson ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundHypothesis-free Mendelian randomization studies provide a way to assess the causal relevance of a trait across the human phenome but can be limited by statistical power or complicated by horizontal pleiotropy. The recently described latent causal variable (LCV) approach provides an alternative method for causal inference which might be useful in hypothesis-free experiments.MethodsWe developed an automated pipeline for phenome-wide tests using the LCV approach including steps to estimate partial genetic causality, filter to a meaningful set of estimates, apply correction for multiple testing and then present the findings in a graphical summary termed a causal architecture plot. We apply this process to body mass index and lipid traits as exemplars of traits where there is strong prior expectation for causal effects and dental caries and periodontitis as exemplars of traits where there is a need for causal inference.ResultsThe results for lipids and BMI suggest that these traits are best viewed as creating consequences on a multitude of traits and conditions, thus providing additional evidence that supports viewing these traits as targets for interventions to improve health. On the other hand, caries and periodontitis are best viewed as a downstream consequence of other traits and diseases rather than a cause of ill health.ConclusionsThe automated process is available as part of the MASSIVE pipeline from the Complex-Traits Genetics Virtual Lab (https://vl.genoma.io) and results are available in (https://view.genoma.io). We propose causal architecture plots based on phenome-wide partial genetic causality estimates as a way visualizing the overall causal map of the human phenome.Key messagesThe latent causal variable approach uses summary statistics from genome-wide association studies to estimate a parameter termed genetic causality proportion.Systematic estimation of genetic causality proportion for many pairs of traits provides an alternative method for phenome-wide causal inference with some theoretical and practical advantages compared to phenome-wide Mendelian randomization.Using this approach, we confirm that lipid traits are an upstream risk factor for other traits and diseases, and we identify that dental diseases are predominantly a downstream consequence of other traits rather than a cause of poor systemic health.The method assumes no bidirectional causality and no confounding by environmental correlates of genotypes, so care is needed when these assumptions are not met.We developed an automated and accessible pipeline for estimating phenome-wide causal relationships and generating interactive visual summaries.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Yang ◽  
Tianyi Chen ◽  
Yahong Zhu ◽  
Mingxia Bai ◽  
Xingang Li

BackgroundPrevious epidemiological studies have shown significant associations between chronic periodontitis (CP) and chronic kidney disease (CKD), but the causal relationship remains uncertain. Aiming to examine the causal relationship between these two diseases, we conducted a bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis with multiple MR methods.MethodsFor the casual effect of CP on CKD, we selected seven single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) specific to CP as genetic instrumental variables from the genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in the GLIDE Consortium. The summary statistics of complementary kidney function measures, i.e., estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN), were derived from the GWAS in the CKDGen Consortium. For the reversed causal inference, six SNPs associated with eGFR and nine with BUN from the CKDGen Consortium were included and the summary statistics were extracted from the CLIDE Consortium.ResultsNo significant causal association between genetically determined CP and eGFR or BUN was found (all p > 0.05). Based on the conventional inverse variance-weighted method, one of seven instrumental variables supported genetically predicted CP being associated with a higher risk of eGFR (estimate = 0.019, 95% CI: 0.012–0.026, p < 0.001).ConclusionEvidence from our bidirectional causal inference does not support a causal relation between CP and CKD risk and therefore suggests that associations reported by previous observational studies may represent confounding.


2008 ◽  
Vol 27 (15) ◽  
pp. 2976-2978 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debbie A. Lawlor ◽  
Nic Timpson ◽  
George Davey Smith ◽  
Roger M. Harbord ◽  
Jonathan A. C. Sterne

Epidemiology ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Burgess ◽  
Jack Bowden ◽  
Tove Fall ◽  
Erik Ingelsson ◽  
Simon G. Thompson

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Yarmolinsky ◽  
Katie Berryman ◽  
Ryan Langdon ◽  
Carolina Bonilla ◽  
George Davey Smith ◽  
...  

AbstractBackground: Observational studies suggest that dietary and serum calcium are risk factors for prostate cancer. However, such studies suffer from residual confounding (due to unmeasured or imprecisely measured confounders), undermining causal inference. Mendelian randomization uses randomly assigned (hence unconfounded and pre-disease onset) germline genetic variation to proxy for phenotypes and strengthen causal inference in observational studies.Objective: We tested the hypothesis that serum calcium is associated with an increased risk of overall and advanced prostate cancer.Design: A genetic instrument was constructed using 5 single nucleotide polymorphisms robustly associated with serum calcium in a genome-wide association study (N ≤ 61,079). This instrument was then used to test the effect of a 0.5 mg/dL increase (1 standard deviation, SD) in serum calcium on risk of prostate cancer in 72,729 men in the PRACTICAL (Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome) Consortium (44,825 cases, 27,904 controls) and risk of advanced prostate cancer in 33,498 men (6,263 cases, 27,235 controls).Results: We found weak evidence for a protective effect of serum calcium on prostate cancer risk (odds ratio [OR] per 0.5 mg/dL increase in calcium: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.63-1.08; P=0.12). We did not find strong evidence for an effect of serum calcium on advanced prostate cancer (OR per 0.5 mg/dL increase in calcium: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.57-1.70; P=0.93).Conclusions: Our Mendelian randomization analysis does not support the hypothesis that serum calcium increases risk of overall or advanced prostate cancer.


2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Davey Smith

Mendelian randomization is a promising approach to help improve causal inference in observational studies, with widespread potential applications, including to prioritization of pharmacotherapeutic targets for evaluation in RCTs. From its initial proposal the limitations of Mendelian randomization approaches have been widely recognised and discussed, and recently Pickrell has reiterated these1. However this critique did not acknowledge recent developments in both methodological and empirical research, nor did it recognise many future opportunities for application of the Mendelian randomization approach. These issues are briefly reviewed here.


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