scholarly journals Child mortality estimation incorporating summary birth history data

Biometrics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie Wilson ◽  
Jon Wakefield
Keyword(s):  
Child Mortality ◽  
History Data ◽  
Birth History ◽  
Mortality Estimation

scholarly journals Newborns and Under-5 Mortality in Ethiopia: The Necessity to Revitalize Partnership in Post-COVID-19 Era to Meet the SDG Targets

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 215013272199688
Author(s):  
Yonas Getaye Tefera ◽  
Asnakew Achaw Ayele
Keyword(s):  
Child Mortality ◽  
Millennium Development Goals ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
National Plan ◽  
Health Targets ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Mortality Estimation ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Children Under 5

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted during the United Nations meeting in 2015 to succeed Millennium Development Goals. Among the health targets, SDG 3.2 is to end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years of age by 2030. These 2 targets aim to reduce neonatal mortality to at least as low as 12 per 1000 live births and under-5 mortality to at least as low as 25 per 1000 live births. Ethiopia is demonstrating a great reduction in child mortality since 2000. In the 2019 child mortality estimation which is nearly 5 years after SDGs adoption, Ethiopia’s progress toward reducing the newborns and under-5 mortality lie at 27 and 50.7 per 1000 live births, respectively. The generous financial and technical support from the global partners have helped to achieve such a significant reduction. Nevertheless, the SDG targets for newborns and under-5 mortality reduction are neither attained yet nor met the national plan to achieve by the end of 2019/2020. The partnership dynamics during COVID-19 crisis and the pandemic itself may also be taken as an opportunity to draw lessons and spur efforts to achieve SDG targets. This urges the need to reaffirm a comprehensive partnership and realignment with other interconnected development goals. Therefore, collective efforts with strong partnerships are required to improve the determinants of child health and achieving SDG target reduction until 2030.

Determinants of birth intervals in Sudan

1989 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 301-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mona A. Khalifa
Keyword(s):  
Breast Feeding ◽  
Rural Women ◽  
Cumulative Effects ◽  
Fertility Survey ◽  
Parity Progression ◽  
Birth Intervals ◽  
High Parity ◽  
History Data ◽  
Socioeconomic Groups ◽  
Birth History

SummaryUsing individual birth history data from the Sudan Fertility Survey, 1979, parity-related differences in fertility are demonstrated, as well as differences between socioeconomic groups. Rural women, women with no education and those married to uneducated husbands show rapid parity progression and its cumulative effects on fertility which are consistent over all birth intervals. Urban women, women with some education and those married to educated husbands, however, go rapidly through their second and third birth intervals and then more slowly at higher parities. A limitation of the study was the inability to control fully for the effects of breast-feeding and contraception.There is evidence for a reduction in high parity births,' starting in the 1970s.

scholarly journals Age Distribution, Trends, and Forecasts of Under-5 Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iván Mejía-Guevara ◽  
Wenyun Zuo ◽  
Eran Bendavid ◽  
Nan Li ◽  
Shripad Tuljapurkar
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Mortality Estimation ◽  
Age Patterns ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Mortality Estimates

AbstractBackgroundDespite the sharp decline in global under-5 deaths since 1990, uneven progress has been achieved across and within countries. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the Millennium Development Goals targets for child mortality were met only by a few countries, and recently new targets were set in goals for Sustainable Development that include the eradication of preventable deaths by reducing neonatal and under-5 mortality rates to at least as low 12 and 25 per 1000 live births by 2030, respectively. As the reduction of preventable deaths has a direct impact on their age distribution, the foci of this study are assessing age patterns, trends over time, and forecasts of mortality rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.Methods and findingsData came from 104 nationally-representative Demographic and Health Surveys with full birth histories from 31 Sub-Saharan African countries from 1990 to 2016 (a total of 448 country-years of data). We assessed the distribution of age at death through the following demographic model. First, we used a direct method for the estimation of death rates with full-birth histories from survey data to construct age profiles of under-5 mortality on a monthly basis. Second, a two-dimensional P-spline approach was used to smooth out raw estimates of death rates by age and time. Third, a variant of the Lee-Carter model, designed for populations with limited data, was used to fit and forecast age profiles of mortality. We used mortality estimates from the United Nations Inter-agency group for Child Mortality Estimation to adjust, validate and minimize the risk of bias in survival, truncation, and recall in mortality estimation.Our study has three salient findings. First, we observe a monotonous decline of death rates at every age in most countries, but with notable differences in the age-patterns over time. Second, our projections of continued decline of child mortality differ from existing estimates from the United Nations Inter-agency group for Child Mortality Estimation in 5 countries for both neonatal and under-5 mortality. Finally, we predict that only 5 countries (Guinea, Liberia, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda) are on track to achieve the sustainable development goal targets on child mortality by 2030. Poor data quality issues that include bias in the report of births and deaths, or age heaping, remain a limitation of this study.ConclusionsThis study is the first to combine full birth history data and mortality estimates from external reliable sources to model age patterns of under-5 mortality across time in Sub-Saharan Africa. We demonstrate that countries with a rapid pace of mortality reduction across ages would be more likely to achieve the sustainable development goal targets of child mortality reduction. Our mortality model predicts that if neonatal and under-5 deaths decline at the rates observed during the last 25 years, only 5 countries would reach those targets by 2030, 15 would achieve them between 2030 and 2050, and 11 afterwards.

scholarly journals Estimating Trends in Fertility in Kenya from Non Birth History Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Waweru Ngugi
Keyword(s):  
Health Survey ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Demographic And Health Survey ◽  
Data Evaluation ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Survey Period ◽  
Indirect Methods ◽  
History Data ◽  
Birth History ◽  
Fertility Trend

AbstractThis study aimed at determining the extent to which methods for estimating trends in fertility without use of birth history could be used on Kenyan surveys data by employing the own-children method (OCM) and reverse survival (RS) method in estimating fertility trend in the country. The study used data from 2015/16 Kenya Integrated Household and Budget Survey (KIHBS) and 2014 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS). Data evaluation was done in order to obtain optimal fertility estimates. 2015/16 KIHBS data reported a Whipples index of 49.0 and 57.5 for terminal digits 0 and 5 respectively. Myer’s blended index was 2.9 and this was an indication that in general the data was accurate and therefore did not require any adjustment to improve its quality before use. Results from 2015/16 KIHBS showed that RS estimated Total Fertility Rate to be 3.5 as compared to OCM that estimated it to be 3.8. The results from 2014 KDHS dataset were consistent when using both RS and OCM. The two indirect methods can give consistent fertility estimates when the reference period is closer to the survey period but in the fourth and fifth year RS tends to systematically overstate fertility as compared to OCM. This study found out that in the absence of full birth history data, RS and OCM can reliably estimate consistent fertility estimates and trend.

scholarly journals Child Mortality Estimation: Accelerated Progress in Reducing Global Child Mortality, 1990–2010

PLoS Medicine ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. e1001303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Hill ◽  
Danzhen You ◽  
Mie Inoue ◽  
Mikkel Z. Oestergaard ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Child Mortality ◽  
Mortality Estimation
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