Predicting potential habitat suitability of Quercus suber L . in Algeria under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Laala ◽  
Djamel Alatou ◽  
Amina Adimi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Quercus Suber ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Potential Habitat

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

scholarly journals Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of Arbutus andrachne L. belonging to climate change in Turkey.

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayse Gul Sarikaya ◽  
◽  
Omer K. Orucu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Small Tree ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
Maxent Modeling ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Turkish Flora

Arbutus andrachne L., the strawberry tree, is an evergreen shrub or small tree in the Turkish flora and has broad uses. The wood is used for decorative purposes, packaging, and manufacturing furniture. The fruits are edible and used in treating many kinds of diseases. However, global warming might affect the abundance of this symbolic plant's distribution, especially at higher latitudes. This study was conducted to determine the expected effects of climate change on A. andrachne. For this purpose, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to expect climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070, and potential distribution areas of A. andrachne were presented. The results indicated that the distribution of A. andrachne would decrease in the southern regions of Turkey. However, the spread of the species could be expanded in the western and northern areas. It is also expected that there would be potential habitat losses, which would affect the distribution of A. andrachne.

scholarly journals The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e12311
Author(s):  
Jingyun Guan ◽  
Moyan Li ◽  
Xifeng Ju ◽  
Jun Lin ◽  
Jianguo Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Desert Locust ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Potential Habitat

Desert locusts are notorious for their widespread distribution and strong destructive power. Their influence extends from the vast arid and semiarid regions of western Africa to northwestern India. Large-scale locust outbreaks can have devastating consequences for food security, and their social impact may be long-lasting. Climate change has increased the uncertainty of desert locust outbreaks, and predicting suitable habitats for this species under climate change scenarios will help humans deal with the potential threat of locust outbreaks. By comprehensively considering climate, soil, and terrain variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential habitats of solitary desert locusts in the 2050s and 2070s under the four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. The modeling results show that the average area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) reached 0.908 ± 0.002 and 0.701, respectively, indicating that the MaxEnt model performed extremely well and provided outstanding prediction results. The prediction results indicate that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of the potential habitat of solitary desert locusts. With the increase in radiative forcing overtime, the suitable areas for desert locusts will continue to contract, especially in the 2070s under the SSP585 scenario, and the moderately and highly suitable areas will decrease by 0.88 × 106 km2 and 1.55 × 106 km2, respectively. Although the potentially suitable area for desert locusts is contracting, the future threat posed by the desert locust to agricultural production and food security cannot be underestimated, given the combination of maintained breeding areas, frequent extreme weather events, pressure from population growth, and volatile sociopolitical environments. In conclusion, methods such as monitoring and early warning, financial support, regional cooperation, and scientific prevention and control of desert locust plagues should be further implemented.

scholarly journals Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Xerophytic Shrub Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica) under Two Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Vargas-Piedra ◽  
Ricardo David Valdez-Cepeda ◽  
Armando López-Santos ◽  
Arnoldo Flores-Hernández ◽  
Nathalie S. Hernández-Quiroz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) is a shrub species distributed throughout the Chihuahuan Desert in northern Mexico and southern of the United States of America. Candelilla has an economic importance due to natural wax it produces. The economic importance and the intense harvest of the wax from candelilla seems to gradually reduce the natural populations of this species. The essence of this research was to project the potential distribution of candelilla populations under different climate change scenarios in its natural distribution area in North America. We created a spatial database with points of candelilla presence, according to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). A spatial analysis to predict the potential distribution of the species using Maxent software was performed. Thirteen of 19 variables from the WorldClim database were used for two scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (4.5 as a conservative and 8.5 as extreme). We used climate projections from three global climate models (GCMs) (Max Planck institute, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Met Office Hadley), each simulating the two scenarios. The final predicted distribution areas were classified in five on-site possible candelilla habitat suitability categories: none (< 19%), low (20–38%), medium (39–57%), high (58–76%) and very high (> 77%). According to the area under the curve (0.970), the models and scenarios used showed an adequate fit to project the current and future distribution of candelilla. The variable that contributed the most in the three GCMs and the two RCPs was the mean temperature of the coldest quarter with an influence of 45.7% (Jackknife test). The candelilla’s distribution area for North America was predicted as approximately 19.1 million hectares under the current conditions for the high habitat suitability; however, the projection for the next fifty years is not promising because the GCMs projected a reduction of more than 6.9 million hectares using either the conservative or extreme scenarios. The results are useful for conservation of the species in the area with vulnerable wild populations, as well as for the selection of new sites suitable for the species growth and cultivation while facing climate change.

scholarly journals Predicting the Bioclimatic Habitat Suitability of Ginkgo biloba L. in China with Field-Test Validations

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 705 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Guo ◽  
Jing Guo ◽  
Xin Shen ◽  
Guibin Wang ◽  
Tongli Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Field Test ◽  
Ginkgo Biloba ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Leaf Traits ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Living Fossil ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
The Impact

Ginkgo (Ginkgo biloba L.) is not only considered a ‘living fossil’, but also has important ecological, economic, and medicinal values. However, the impact of climate change on the performance and distribution of this plant is an increasing concern. In this study, we developed a bioclimatic model based on data about the occurrence of ginkgo from 277 locations, and validated model predictions using a wide-ranging field test (12 test sites, located at the areas from 22.49° N to 39.32° N, and 81.11° E to 123.53° E). We found that the degree-days below zero were the most important climate variable determining ginkgo distribution. Based on the model predictions, we classified the habitat suitability for ginkgo into four categories (high, medium, low, and unsuitable), accounting for 9.29%, 6.09%, 8.46%, and 76.16% of China’s land area, respectively. The ANOVA results of the validation test showed significant differences in observed leaf-traits among the four habitat types (p < 0.05), and importantly the rankings of the leaf traits were consistent with our classification of the habitat suitability, suggesting the effectiveness of our classification in terms of biological and economic significance. In addition, we projected that suitable (high and medium) habitats for ginkgo would shrink and shift northward under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for three future periods (the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). However, the area of low-suitable habitat would increase, resulting in a slight decrease in unsuitable habitats. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of climate change impact on this plant and provide a scientific basis for developing adaptive strategies for future climate.

scholarly journals Modeling the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of Culicoides imicola under climate change scenarios

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e12308
Author(s):  
Hongyan Gao ◽  
Long Wang ◽  
Jun Ma ◽  
Xiang Gao ◽  
Jianhua Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
African Horse Sickness ◽  
Vector Surveillance ◽  
Culicoides Imicola

Background African horse sickness, a transboundary and non-contagious arboviral infectious disease of equids, has spread without any warning from sub-Saharan Africa towards the Southeast Asian countries in 2020. It is imperative to predict the global distribution of Culicoides imicola (C. imicola), which was the main vector of African horse sickness virus. Methods The occurrence records of C. imicola were mainly obtained from the published literature and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of C. imicola under climate change scenarios. Results The modeling results showed that the currently suitable habitats for C. imicola were distributed in most of the southern part areas of America, southwestern Europe, most of Africa, the coastal areas of the Middle East, almost all regions of South Asia, southern China, a few countries in Southeast Asia, and the whole Australia. Our model also revealed the important environmental variables on the distribution of C. imicola were temperature seasonality, precipitation of coldest quarter, and mean temperature of wettest quarter. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is an assumption of possible greenhouse gases emissions in the future. Under future climate change scenarios, the area of habitat suitability increased and decreased with time, and RCP 8.5 in the 2070s gave the worst prediction. Moreover, the habitat suitability of C. imicola will likely expand to higher latitudes. The prediction of this study is of strategic significance for vector surveillance and the prevention of vector-borne diseases.

scholarly journals Potential habitat suitability of Iraqi amphibians under climate change

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emad Kaky
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Conservation Planning ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Niche Overlap ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Conservation Actions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Threaten Species

Abstract. Kaky E. 2020. Potential habitat suitability of Iraqi amphibians under climate change. Biodiversitas 21: 731-742. Biodiversity management and conservation planning are two techniques for reducing the rate of biodiversity loss, especially under the effect of climate change. Here 289 records of five species of amphibians from Iraq and seven environmental variables were used with MaxEnt to predict potential habitat suitability for each species under current and future conditions, using the 5th IPCC assessment  (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 for the year 2050). The models suggest that annual precipitation and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter are the main factors that shape the distributions of these species. The estimated current habitat suitability was closely similar to that for 2050 under both scenarios, with a high niche overlap between them for all species. Among species, there were low niche overlaps between the frogs Bufo viridis, Hyla savignyi and Rana ridibunda, and also between the salamanders Neurergus crocatus and Neurergus microspilotus. Future sampling should focus on areas not currently covered by records to reduce bias. The results are a vital first step in long-term conservation planning for these species. Via sharing these results with decision-makers and stakeholders a crucial conservation actions need to increase Iraqi Protected Areas to avoid losing biodiversity in Iraq especially the unique populations and threaten species.

scholarly journals Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru

Animals ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1816
Author(s):  
Gerson Meza Mori ◽  
Elgar Barboza Castillo ◽  
Cristóbal Torres Guzmán ◽  
Dany A. Cotrina Sánchez ◽  
Betty K. Guzman Valqui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
High Potential ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Total Potential ◽  
Protected Natural Areas ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Sustainable Conservation

The spectacled, or Andean, bear (Tremarctos ornatus) is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN due to climate change and human-induced habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need for the conservation of spectacled bear at real time. However, the lack of knowledge about the distribution of this species is considered as one of the major limitations for decision-making and sustainable conservation. In this study, 92 geo-referenced records of the spectacled bear, 12 environmental variables and the MaxEnt entropy modelling have been used for predictive modelling for the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of the spectacled bear in Amazonas, northeastern Peru. The areas of “high”, “moderate” and “low” potential habitat under current conditions cover 1.99% (836.22 km2), 14.46% (6081.88 km2) and 20.73% (8718.98 km2) of the Amazon, respectively. “High” potential habitat will increase under all climate change scenarios, while “moderate” and “low” potential habitat, as well as total habitat, will decrease over the time. The “moderate”, “low” and total potential habitat are distributed mainly in Yunga montane forest, combined grasslands/rangelands and secondary vegetation and Yunga altimontane (rain) forest, while “high” potential habitat is also concentrated in the Jalca. The overall outcome showed that the most of the important habitats of the spectacled bear are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas, under current as well as under future scenarios.

scholarly journals Quantifying Florida Bay Habitat Suitability for Fishes and Invertebrates Under Climate Change Scenarios

2014 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 836-856 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly A. Kearney ◽  
Mark Butler ◽  
Robert Glazer ◽  
Christopher R. Kelble ◽  
Joseph E. Serafy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Florida Bay ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios
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