Modelling current and future potential distributions of Vachellia tortilis (Forssk.) Hayne subsp. raddiana (Savi.) Brenan var. raddiana under climate change in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaouther Mechergui ◽  
Amal Saleh Altamimi ◽  
Wahbi Jaouadi ◽  
Souheila Naghmouchi ◽  
Sabri El Wellani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Potential

Scotland׳s hydropower: Current capacity, future potential and the possible impacts of climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 111-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
James E. Sample ◽  
Niall Duncan ◽  
Michael Ferguson ◽  
Susan Cooksley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Modelling Current and Future Potential Habitats for Plantations of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden and E. dunnii Maiden in Uruguay

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 948 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Resquin ◽  
Joaquín Duque-Lazo ◽  
Cristina Acosta-Muñoz ◽  
Cecilia Rachid-Casnati ◽  
Leonidas Carrasco-Letelier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Eucalyptus Grandis ◽  
Soil Parameters ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
High Susceptibility ◽  
Productive Potential ◽  
Potential Habitats ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
South Of Brazil

Eucalyptus grandis and E. dunnii have high productive potential in the South of Brazil, Uruguay, and central Argentina. This is based on the similarity of the climate and soil of these areas, which form an eco-region called Campos. However, previous results show that these species have differences in their distribution caused by the prioritization of Uruguayan soils for forestry, explained by the particular conditions of each site. In this study, the site variables (climate, soil, and topography) that better explain the distribution of both species were identified, and prediction models of current and future distribution were adjusted for different climate change scenarios (years 2050 and 2070). The distribution of E. grandis was associated with soil parameters, whereas for E. dunnii a greater effect of the climatic variables was observed. The ensemble biomod2 model was the most precise with regard to predicting the habitat for both species with respect to the simple models evaluated. For E. dunnii, the average values of the AUC, Kappa, and TSS index were 0.98, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively. For E. grandis, their values were 0.97, 0.86, and 0.80, respectively. In the projections of climatic change, the distribution of E. grandis occurrence remains practically unchanged, even in the scenarios of temperature increase. However, current distribution of E. dunnii shows high susceptibility in a scenario of increased temperature, to the point that most of the area currently planted may be at risk. Our results might be useful to political government and foresters for decision making in terms of future planted areas.

Climate change impacts on viticulture in Croatia: Viticultural zoning and future potential

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (13) ◽  
pp. 5634-5655
Author(s):  
Branimir Omazić ◽  
Maja Telišman Prtenjak ◽  
Ivan Prša ◽  
Andreina Belušić Vozila ◽  
Višnja Vučetić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Potential

Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 2524-2535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriela Mendoza-González ◽  
M. Luisa Martínez ◽  
Octavio R. Rojas-Soto ◽  
Gabriela Vázquez ◽  
Juan B. Gallego-Fernández
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Ecological Niche Modeling ◽  
Niche Modeling ◽  
Coastal Dune Plants ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Dune Plants

scholarly journals The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 723-732 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miriam Dunn ◽  
Mark D. A. Rounsevell ◽  
Fredrik Boberg ◽  
Elizabeth Clarke ◽  
Jens Christensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wine Production ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Potential

Will dragonblood survive the next period of climate change? Current and future potential distribution of Dracaena cinnabari (Socotra, Yemen)

2007 ◽  
Vol 138 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 430-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Attorre ◽  
Fabio Francesconi ◽  
Nadim Taleb ◽  
Paul Scholte ◽  
Ahmed Saed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Dracaena Cinnabari

Genomic Prediction of (Mal)Adaptation Across Current and Future Climatic Landscapes

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 245-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibaut Capblancq ◽  
Matthew C. Fitzpatrick ◽  
Rachael A. Bay ◽  
Moises Exposito-Alonso ◽  
Stephen R. Keller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Adaptation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Genomic Data ◽  
Adaptive Genetic Variation ◽  
Species Ranges ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Selective Pressures ◽  
Gene Environment ◽  
Future Potential

Signals of local adaptation have been found in many plants and animals, highlighting the heterogeneity in the distribution of adaptive genetic variation throughout species ranges. In the coming decades, global climate change is expected to induce shifts in the selective pressures that shape this adaptive variation. These changes in selective pressures will likely result in varying degrees of local climate maladaptation and spatial reshuffling of the underlying distributions of adaptive alleles. There is a growing interest in using population genomic data to help predict future disruptions to locally adaptive gene-environment associations. One motivation behind such work is to better understand how the effects of changing climate on populations’ short-term fitness could vary spatially across species ranges. Here we review the current use of genomic data to predict the disruption of local adaptation across current and future climates. After assessing goals and motivationsunderlying the approach, we review the main steps and associated statistical methods currently in use and explore our current understanding of the limits and future potential of using genomics to predict climate change (mal)adaptation.

scholarly journals Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Phenacoccus madeirensis Green under Various Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiufeng Wei ◽  
Xiaozhou Li ◽  
Yunyun Lu ◽  
Ling Zhao ◽  
Hufang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Phenacoccus Madeirensis ◽  
Control And Management

The Madeira mealybug, Phenacoccus madeirensis Green, is a serious invasive pest that does significant damage to more than 120 genera of host plants from 51 families in more than 81 countries. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unclear, which could hamper control and eradication efforts. In the current study, MaxEnt models were developed to forecast the current and future distribution of the Madeira mealybug around the world. Moreover, the future potential distribution of this invasive species was projected for the 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (HADGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5). The final model indicates that the Madeira mealybug has a highly suitable range for the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as South America and North America, where this species has already been recorded. Potential expansions or reductions in distribution were also simulated under different future climatic conditions. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor and explained 46.9% of the distribution model. The distribution model from the current and future predictions can enhance the strategic planning of agricultural and forestry organization by identifying regions that will need to develop integrated pest management programs to manage Madeira mealybug, especially for some highly suitable areas, such as South Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of this research will help governments to optimize investment in the control and management of the Madeira mealybug by identifying regions that are or will become suitable for infestations.

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