Predicted future distribution of the African skimmer in response to a changing climate, land cover and distance from water in the mid‐Zambezi Valley

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 432-445
Author(s):  
Pioneer Taashwa Gamundani ◽  
Kudzai Mpakairi ◽  
Christopher Magadza ◽  
Shakkie Kativu ◽  
Elmon Dhlomo
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Zambezi Valley

Achieving Net Zero: Understanding the Potential Hydrological Impacts of Changing Climate and Land Cover in the UK

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcus Buechel ◽  
Simon Dadson ◽  
Louise Slater
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Drainage Basins ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
High Magnitude ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Streamflow Trends

<p>Climate change is set to increase the magnitude and frequency of fluvial flooding in many regions across the world, making it a growing risk to billions of people living near rivers. Changing drainage basin land cover and hydrological connectivity further complicates how these streamflow extremes may evolve. Engineered solutions to mitigate the risk of future high magnitude runoff events to populations may no longer be suitable to meet these needs due to these changes in climate and land cover.</p><p>By reducing the level of global CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, climate models predict that we can reduce the severity of climate change impacts upon communities. To achieve the goals set by the Paris Agreement to limit global warming, the UK has proposed a range of policies to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. One of these proposals includes widespread afforestation across the UK. Where to plant this woodland and the scale of impact it may have on the future hydrological cycle is currently unquantified. This project seeks to investigate three aspects of how future streamflow trends my change due to afforestation in respect to: woodland location, differing afforestation rates, and the hydrological responsiveness of drainage basins to land cover changes.</p><p>Physics-based models provide the possibility to explore the relative importance of climate and land cover on future streamflow trends, both together and separately. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is used to explore catchment responses across the UK to potential extreme weather events with theoretical changes in land cover at a 1 km resolution. Theoretical land cover scenarios of afforestation were generated according to proximity to existing land cover, drainage basin structure and proposed afforestation sites. An extreme precipitation scenario (the winter of 2013/14) is explored to comprehend streamflow regime response to high magnitude precipitation events caused by changing climate and land cover using the Weather@home perturbed model ensembles and CHESS-met datasets. This approach provides the potential to explore how increasing afforestation could change the discharge dynamics of landscapes across the UK and thus its potential benefits and drawbacks to flood risk management. </p><p>Results show how potential land cover changes will impact streamflow response to storms across the UK. These results help provide a clearer picture of how changing landscape systems impact river response to external climatic forcing and may provide evidence for management and policy strategies tailored to the requirements of individual drainage basins to reduce the risk of flooding upon downstream populations.</p>

Forest forecasting with vegetation models across Russia

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacquelyn K. Shuman ◽  
Nadezhda M. Tchebakova ◽  
Elena I. Parfenova ◽  
Amber J. Soja ◽  
Herman H. Shugart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Kappa Statistics ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope Model ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Forest Distribution ◽  
Large Scale Land

Vegetation models are essential tools for projecting large-scale land-cover response to changing climate, which is expected to alter the distribution of biomes and individual species. A large-scale bioclimatic envelope model (RuBCliM) and an individual species based gap model (UVAFME) are used to simulate the Russian forests under current and future climate for two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results for current conditions are compared between models and assessed against two independent maps of Russian forest biomes and dominant tree species. Comparisons measured with kappa statistics indicate good agreement between the models (kappa values from 0.76 to 0.69), as well as between the model results and two observation-based maps for both species presence and absence (kappa values from 0.70 to 0.43). Agreement between these multiple types of data on forest distribution provides confidence in the projected forest response to changing climate. For future conditions, both models indicate a shift in the dominant biomes from conifers to deciduous leaved species. These projections have implications for feedbacks between the energy budget, carbon cycle, and land cover in the boreal system. The distinct biome and species changes emphasize the need for continued investigation of this landmass that has the size necessary to influence regional and global climate.

Biophysical effects of LULCC in a changing climate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Duveiller ◽  
Alessandro Cescatti
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Local Space ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Time Substitution ◽  
Surface Covering ◽  
Biophysical Effects

<p>The properties of the type of surface covering the land have a direct effect on their surrounding atmosphere due to biophysical mechanisms. When the land cover type is altered, or when its properties change due to land use management, there can be a repercussion on the climate that goes beyond the associated changes in greenhouse gases. Satellite remote sensing observations have recently been instrumental to quantify and map these biophysical effects across geographical and seasonal gradients. The typical variable that is measured is temperature, as it integrates the combined effects of changes in surface albedo, soil moisture and vegetation state. Up-to-now, studies have generally focused on analyzing the mean response of land use and land cover change (LULCC) assuming a static climate. Here we revisit a proven methodology to infer the potential effects of LULCC on temperature based on a local space-for-time substitution, but we apply it annually across the globe for 15 consecutive years covering changing climate conditions. This opens the possibility to explore the inter-annual variability of the biophysical effects of LULCC, along with changes across climatic gradients. At specific look on extreme events enables us to assess how these dampen or amplify the biophysical effects of different LULCC transitions. Overall, this study establishes a first step towards inferring an observation-driven diagnostic that can provide guidance towards land-based mitigation strategies for a future and changing climate.</p>

Response of evapotranspiration and water availability to changing climate and land cover on the Mongolian Plateau during the 21st century

2013 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 85-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaling Liu ◽  
Qianlai Zhuang ◽  
Min Chen ◽  
Zhihua Pan ◽  
Nadja Tchebakova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Mongolian Plateau ◽  
Changing Climate

scholarly journals Prioritizing management actions for the conservation of freshwater biodiversity under changing climate and land-cover

2016 ◽  
Vol 197 ◽  
pp. 80-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chrystal S. Mantyka-Pringle ◽  
Tara G. Martin ◽  
David B. Moffatt ◽  
James Udy ◽  
Jon Olley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Freshwater Biodiversity ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Management Actions
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