scholarly journals An inverse stage‐shift model to estimate the excess mortality and health economic impact of delayed access to cancer services due to the COVID‐19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koen Degeling ◽  
Nancy N. Baxter ◽  
Jon Emery ◽  
Mark A. Jenkins ◽  
Fanny Franchini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Economic ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Cancer Services ◽  
Shift Model

scholarly journals Modelling the Long-Term Effects of Covid-19 Cancer Services Disruption on Patient Outcome in Scotland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonine D Figueroa ◽  
Ewan Gray ◽  
Yasuko Maeda ◽  
Peter S Hall ◽  
Melanie Mackean ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Service Planning ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Referral Patterns ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Cancer Services ◽  
Shift Model ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractBackgroundModelling the long-term effects of disruption of cancer services and minimising any excess cancer mortality due to the Covid-19 pandemic is of great importance. Here we adapted a stage-shift model to inform service planning decisions within NHS Scotland for the ‘‘Detect Cancer Early’ tumours, breast, colorectal and lung cancer which represent 46% of all cancers diagnosed in Scotland.Methods & DataLung, colorectal and breast cancer incidence data for years 2017-18 were obtained from Public Health Scotland Cancer Quality Performance Indicators (QPI), to define a baseline scenario. The most current stage-specific 5-year survival data came from 2009-2014 national cancer registry and South East Scotland Cancer Network (SCAN) QPI audit datasets. The Degeling et al., inverse stage-shift model was adapted to estimate changes in stage at diagnosis, excess mortality and life-years lost from delays to diagnosis and treatment due to Covid-19-related health services disruption. Three and 6-month periods of disruption were simulated to demonstrate the model predictions.ResultsApproximately, 1-9% reductions in stage I/II presentations leading up to 2-10% increases in stage III/IV presentations are estimated across the three cancer types. A 6-month period of service disruption is predicted to lead to excess deaths at 5 years of 32.5 (31.1, 33.9) per 1000 cases for lung cancer, 16.5 (7.9, 24.3) for colorectal cancer and 31.6 (28.5, 34.4) for breast cancer.ConclusionsDisruption of cancer diagnostic services can lead to significant excess deaths in following years. Increasing diagnostic and capacity for cancer services to deal with the backlog of care are needed. Real time monitoring of incidence and referral patterns over the disruption and post-disruption period to reduce excess deaths including more rapid incidence data by stage and other key tumour/clinical characteristics at presentation for key cancer cases (on a quarterly basis). Real time monitoring in cancer care and referral patterns should help inform what type of interventions are needed to reduce excess mortality and whether different population subgroups require public health messaging campaigns. Specific mitigation measures can be the subject of additional modelling analysis to assess the benefits and inform service planning decision making.

scholarly journals COVID-19: From health crises to food security anxiety and policy implications

AMBIO ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 794-811 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linley Chiwona-Karltun ◽  
Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah ◽  
Caroline Wamala-Larsson ◽  
Salome Amuakwa-Mensah ◽  
Assem Abu Hatab ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Economic ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Recovery Process ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Use Of Data ◽  
Local Spread

AbstractLike the rest of the world, African countries are reeling from the health, economic and social effects of COVID-19. The continent’s governments have responded by imposing rigorous lockdowns to limit the spread of the virus. The various lockdown measures are undermining food security, because stay at home orders have among others, threatened food production for a continent that relies heavily on agriculture as the bedrock of the economy. This article draws on quantitative data collected by the GeoPoll, and, from these data, assesses the effect of concern about the local spread and economic impact of COVID-19 on food worries. Qualitative data comprising 12 countries south of the Sahara reveal that lockdowns have created anxiety over food security as a health, economic and human rights/well-being issue. By applying a probit model, we find that concern about the local spread of COVID-19 and economic impact of the virus increases the probability of food worries. Governments have responded with various efforts to support the neediest. By evaluating the various policies rolled out we advocate for a feminist economics approach that necessitates greater use of data analytics to predict the likely impacts of intended regulatory relief responses during the recovery process and post-COVID-19.

scholarly journals Legacy of COVID-19 infection in children: long-COVID will have a lifelong health/economic impact

2021 ◽  
pp. archdischild-2021-321882
Author(s):  
Daniel Munblit ◽  
Frances Simpson ◽  
Jeremy Mabbitt ◽  
Audrey Dunn-Galvin ◽  
Calum Semple ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Economic ◽  
Economic Impact

scholarly journals The health economic impact of varying levels of adherence to colorectal screening on providers and payers

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-78
Author(s):  
Joanne M. Hathway ◽  
Lesley-Ann Miller-Wilson ◽  
Weiyu Yao ◽  
Ivar S. Jensen ◽  
Milton C. Weinstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Economic ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Colorectal Screening

scholarly journals Systematic Review of Health Economic Impact Evaluations of Risk Prediction Models: Stop Developing, Start Evaluating

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 718-726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anoukh van Giessen ◽  
Jaime Peters ◽  
Britni Wilcher ◽  
Chris Hyde ◽  
Carl Moons ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Health Economic ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Risk Prediction Models

scholarly journals The longitudinal health economic impact of viral encephalitis in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 270-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Musa Kiyani ◽  
Beiyu Liu ◽  
Lefko T. Charalambous ◽  
Syed M. Adil ◽  
Sarah E. Hodges ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Health Economic ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Viral Encephalitis ◽  
The United States
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