scholarly journals Lifetime Uncertainty and the Optimal Replacement Rate of Urban Public Pension in China

Author(s):  
Zaigui Yang
2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Attias ◽  
Simona Ciavalini ◽  
Carla Morrone ◽  
Daniela Saitta

AbstractThis paper adapts an actuarial mathematical model, built for the Italian public pension system, based on the law proposal 3035/2009 to the Accountant Pension Fund (CNPADC). The aim is to introduce a new philosophy pension highly correlated with the concept of adequacy for an ambitious social welfare; using the logic of the 3035/2009 proposal, which guarantees a minimum threshold for the replacement rate of the direct pension, this study provides a rigorous actuarial mathematical model that explains a sort of rate of contribution at a tendential equilibrium, in a pay-as-you-go pension system. This model reveals for which parameters it is possible to intervene to maintain the standard of living in retirement.


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 281-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Lawson

A common finding of the optimal unemployment insurance (UI) literature is that the optimal replacement rate is around 50 percent; however, a key assumption is that UI is the only government spending activity. I show that optimal UI levels may be dramatically reduced when UI is a small part of overall spending: the negative impact of UI on income tax revenues implies added welfare costs, a mechanism that I call a fiscal externality. Using both a standard calibrated structural job search model and a “sufficient statistics” method, I find that the optimal replacement rate is zero when fiscal externalities are incorporated. (JEL E24, H24, J64, J65)


2014 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miroslav Verbic ◽  
Rok Spruk

Rapidly aging population in high-income countries has exerted additional pressure on the sustainability of public pension expenditure. We present a theoretical model of public pension expenditure under endogenous human capital, where the latter facilitates a substantial decrease in equilibrium fertility rate alongside the improvement in life expectancy. We demonstrate how higher life expectancy and human capital endowment facilitate a rise of net replacement rate. We then provide and examine an empirical model of old-age expenditure in a panel of 33 countries for the period 1998-2008. Our results indicate that increases in effective retirement age and total fertility rate would reduce age-related expenditure substantially. While higher net replacement rate would alleviate the risk of old-age poverty, further increases would add considerable pressure on the fiscal sustainability of public pensions.


Author(s):  
Ofer Setty ◽  
Yaniv Yedid-Levi

Abstract Labor market outcomes demonstrate considerable variation between and within skill groups. We construct a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and exogenous differences that matches these facts. We study the role of exogenous heterogeneity in choosing the optimal replacement rate and the maximum benefit for an unemployment insurance (UI) system. The optimal average replacement rate is 27%, compared to 0% in a model without exogenous heterogeneity. The relatively generous choice is due to the redistributive role of UI, which is a manifestation of two elements. First, workers who are unemployed more often receive positive net transfers from the UI system because they draw resources more frequently. Second, the existence of a cap on benefits makes UI progressive. Our main result holds in the presence of a generous progressive taxation system.


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