Artificial Immune System With Local Feature Selection for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Abstract Very short term load forecasting (VSTLF) plays a pivotal role in helping the utility workers make proper decisions regarding generation scheduling, size of spinning reserve, and maintaining equilibrium between the power generated by the utility to fulfil the load demand. However, the development of an effective VSTLF model is challenging in gathering noisy real-time data and complicates features found in load demand variations from time to time. A hybrid approach for VSTLF using an incomplete fuzzy decision system (IFDS) combined with a genetic algorithm (GA) based feature selection technique for load forecasting in an hour ahead format is proposed in this research work. This proposed work aims to determine the load features and eliminate redundant features to form a less complex forecasting model. The proposed method considers the time of the day, temperature, humidity, and dew point as inputs and generates output as forecasted load. The input data and historical load data are collected from the Northern Regional Load Dispatch Centre (NRLDC) New Delhi for December 2009, January 2010 and February 2010. For validation of proposed method efficacy, it’s performance is further compared with other conventional AI techniques like ANN and ANFIS, which are integrated with genetic algorithm-based feature selection technique to boost their performance. These techniques’ accuracy is tested through their mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) value. Compared to other conventional AI techniques and other methods provided through previous studies, the proposed method is found to have acceptable accuracy for 1 h ahead of electrical load forecasting.

Download Full-text

A Novel Quantum Neural Network Model with Variable Selection for Short Term Load Forecasting

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.20-23.612 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 20-23 ◽

pp. 612-617 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Wei Sun ◽

Yu Jun He ◽

Ming Meng

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Variable Selection ◽

Network Model ◽

Neural Network Model ◽

Load Forecasting ◽

Short Term ◽

Bp Network ◽

Quantum Neural Network ◽

Short Term Load Forecasting ◽

Selection For

The paper presents a novel quantum neural network (QNN) model with variable selection for short term load forecasting. In the proposed QNN model, first, the combiniation of maximum conditonal entropy theory and principal component analysis method is used to select main influential factors with maximum correlation degree to power load index, thus getting effective input variables set. Then the quantum neural network forecating model is constructed. The proposed QNN forecastig model is tested for certain province load data. The experiments and the performance with QNN neural network model are given, and the results showed the method could provide a satisfactory improvement of the forecasting accuracy compared with traditional BP network model.

Download Full-text