scholarly journals Technology Competition and Optimal Investment Timing: A Real Options Perspective

2005 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.J. Kauffman ◽  
X. Li
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Timing ◽  
Technology Competition

scholarly journals Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective

Complexity ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dezhi Zhang ◽  
Jiehui Jiang ◽  
Shuangyan Li ◽  
Xiamiao Li ◽  
Qingwen Zhan
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Logistics Park ◽  
Investment Timing ◽  
Government Subsidies ◽  
Investment Size ◽  
Logistics Demand

This paper uses a real options approach to address optimal timing and size of a logistics park investment with logistics demand volatility. Two important problems are examined: when should an investment be introduced, and what size should it be? A real option model is proposed to explicitly incorporate the effect of government subsidies on logistics park investment. Logistic demand that triggers the threshold for investment in a logistics park project is explored analytically. Comparative static analyses of logistics park investment are also carried out. Our analytical results show that (1) investors will select smaller sized logistics parks and prepone the investment if government subsidies are considered; (2) the real option will postpone the optimal investment timing of logistics parks compared with net present value approach; and (3) logistic demands can significantly affect the optimal investment size and timing of logistics park investment.

IRREVERSIBLE INVESTMENT, OPERATING FLEXIBILITY, AND TIME LAGS

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 (02) ◽  
pp. 271-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
RYUTA TAKASHIMA ◽  
MAKOTO GOTO ◽  
MOTOH TSUJIMURA
Keyword(s):  
Time Lag ◽  
Peak Load ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Capacity Expansion ◽  
Fixed Cost ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Investment Timing ◽  
Power Company ◽  
Optimal Investment Problem

We consider an optimal investment problem when a firm such as an electric power company has the operational flexibility to expand and contract capacity with fixed cost. This problem is formulated as an impulse control problem combined with optimal stopping. Consequently, we obtain optimal investment timing, optimal capacity expansion and contraction timing, and the investment value. We also show investment, capacity expansion and contraction rule are influenced by the price volatility and the initial capacity is also influenced by the ratio between base-load plant and peak-load plant. In addition, we investigate how time lag between investment and operation influences the investment rule.

scholarly journals Does the Market Correctly Value Investment Options?*

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1159-1201
Author(s):  
Evgeny Lyandres ◽  
Egor Matveyev ◽  
Alexei Zhdanov
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Under Uncertainty ◽  
Innovative Firms ◽  
Public Equity

Abstract This paper shows that the stock market misprices firms’ investment options. We build a real options model of optimal investment under uncertainty to estimate the value of firms’ investment options. We show that firms with valuable investment options have a higher likelihood of being mispriced. Importantly, this mispricing is not one-sided, as such firms are equally likely to be undervalued or overvalued. Our paper adds to the debate on whether public equity markets are myopic and systematically undervalue innovative firms. We show that this is not necessarily the case.

scholarly journals Missed Opportunities: Optimal Investment Timing When Information is Costly

2007 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 467-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graeme Guthrie
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Opportunity ◽  
Missed Opportunities ◽  
Investment Timing ◽  
Real Option Analysis ◽  
Amount Of Information ◽  
Optimal Delay

AbstractReal option analysis typically assumes that projects are continuously evaluated and launched at precisely the time determined to be optimal, but real world projects cannot be managed in this way because of the costs of formally evaluating an investment opportunity. This paper shows that immediate investment is more attractive if evaluation costs are high or the amount of information to be revealed by an evaluation is large. The optimal delay until a reevaluation is long if evaluation costs are high or the amount of information to be revealed by an evaluation is small. The reduction in the value of project rights is especially severe when the value of the completed project is strongly mean reverting because then precision in investment timing is particularly important.

Technological Innovation, Product Life Cycle and Market Power: A Real Options Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (01) ◽  
pp. 93-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnson T. S. Cheng ◽  
I-Ming Jiang ◽  
Yu-Hong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Market Power ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Product Life Cycle ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Product Life ◽  
Real Options Approach

This paper employs a real options approach to analyze optimal investment decisions. When investment projects have the characteristics of irreversibility, uncertainty and the option to wait or exit, the traditional net present value (NPV) method would underestimate the value of investment, since it neglects the values of timing and operational flexibility. The distinctive feature of this paper is that the effects of product life cycle (PLC) as well as market power are incorporated into the model. In addition, and different to the approach in Liao et al. [Optimal investment decision and product life cycle: A real options approach, Sun Yat-Sen Management Review 11(3) (2003) 1–36], we introduce the concept of technological innovation into the model. It is shown that the optimal waiting time for the investment is longer than both those in the American call options model of McDonald and Siegel [The value of waiting to invest, Quarterly Journal of Economics 101(4) (1986) 707–727], which does not incorporate dividend yield, and Liao et al. [Optimal investment decision and product life cycle: A real options approach, Sun Yat-Sen Management Review 11(3) (2003) 1–36], but is shorter than that in Dixit and Pindyck's [Investment under Uncertainty (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1994)] model, which incorporates dividend yield. Finally, a comparative static is used to analyze the determinants of optimal investment decisions. Our results indicate that the investment-ratio threshold will be higher, and thus the optimal entry time for an investment will be delayed, when (1) the PLC is longer, (2) the uncertainty is greater, (3) the discounting rate is higher, (4) market power is larger, (5) jump size intensity is stronger and (6) the payoff out ratio (R&D/revenue) is larger.

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