An Intelligent System for Wrong Data Detection and Correction for Demand Forecasting Purpose

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Lambert-Torres ◽  
D. da Silva Filho ◽  
C.H.V. de Moraes
Keyword(s):  
Intelligent System ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Data Detection

scholarly journals Intelligent system for non-technical losses management in residential users of the electricity sector

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 52-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Uparela Cantillo ◽  
Ruben González ◽  
Jamer Jiménez Mares ◽  
Christian Quintero Monroy
Keyword(s):  
Intelligent Systems ◽  
Intelligent System ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Detection Rates ◽  
Distribution Company

The identification of irregular users is an important assignment in the recovery of energy in the distribution sector. This analysis requires low error levels to minimize non-technical electrical losses in power grid. However, the detection of fraudulent users who have billing does not present a generalized methodology. This issue is complex and varies according to the case study. This paper presents a novel methodology to identify residential fraudulent users by using intelligent systems. The proposed intelligent system consists of three fundamental modules. The first module performs the classification of users with similar power consumption curves using self-organizing maps and genetic algorithms. The second module allows carrying out the monthly electricity demand forecasting through of recursive adjustment of ARIMA models. The third module performs the detection of fraudulent users through an artificial neural network for pattern recognition. For the design and validation of the proposed intelligent system, several tests were performed in each developed module. The database used for the design and evaluation of the modules was constructed with data supplied by the energy distribution company of the Colombian Caribbean Region. The results obtained by the proposed intelligent system show a better performance versus the detection rates obtained by the company.

scholarly journals Computational Intelligent Approaches for Non-Technical Losses Management of Electricity

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 2393
Author(s):  
Rubén González Rodríguez ◽  
Jamer Jiménez Mares ◽  
Christian G. Quintero M.
Keyword(s):  
Intelligent System ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Moving Average Models ◽  
Intelligent Approach ◽  
Computational Intelligent

This paper presents an intelligent system for the detection of non-technical losses of electrical energy associated with the fraudulent behaviors of system users. This proposal has three stages: a non-supervised clustering of consumption profiles based on a hybrid algorithm between self-organizing maps (SOM) and genetic algorithms (GA). A second stage for demand forecasting is based on ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) models corrected intelligently through neural networks (ANN). The final stage is a classifier based on random forests for fraudulent user detection. The proposed intelligent approach was trained and tested with real data from the Colombian Caribbean region, where the utility reports energy losses of around 18% of the total energy purchased by the company during the five last years. The results show an average overall performance of 82.9% in the detection process of fraudulent users, significantly increasing the effectiveness compared to the approaches (68%) previously applied by the utility in the region.

scholarly journals Intelligent system for non-technical losses management in residential users of the electricity sector

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 52-60
Author(s):  
Miguel Uparela Cantillo ◽  
Ruben González ◽  
Jamer Jiménez Mares ◽  
Christian Quintero Monroy
Keyword(s):  
Intelligent Systems ◽  
Intelligent System ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Detection Rates ◽  
Distribution Company

The identification of irregular users is an important assignment in the recovery of energy in the distribution sector. This analysis requires low error levels to minimize non-technical electrical losses in power grid. However, the detection of fraudulent users who have billing does not present a generalized methodology. This issue is complex and varies according to the case study. This paper presents a novel methodology to identify residential fraudulent users by using intelligent systems. The proposed intelligent system consists of three fundamental modules. The first module performs the classification of users with similar power consumption curves using self-organizing maps and genetic algorithms. The second module allows carrying out the monthly electricity demand forecasting through of recursive adjustment of ARIMA models. The third module performs the detection of fraudulent users through an artificial neural network for pattern recognition. For the design and validation of the proposed intelligent system, several tests were performed in each developed module. The database used for the design and evaluation of the modules was constructed with data supplied by the energy distribution company of the Colombian Caribbean Region. The results obtained by the proposed intelligent system show a better performance versus the detection rates obtained by the company.

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