Long Term Trajectory Prediction of Moving Objects Using Gaussian Process

Author(s):  
Elnaz Jahani Heravi ◽  
Sohrab Khanmohammadi
Author(s):  
Can Xu ◽  
Wanzhong Zhao ◽  
Jingqiang Liu ◽  
Feng Chen

To improve the agility and efficiency of the highway decision-making system and overcome the local optimal dilemma of the existing safety field, this paper builds an improved safety field to reflect the advantage of the reachable states and the learning process is further employed to make the decision long-term optimal. Firstly, the improved safety field is prepared by the kinematic model-based prediction of surrounding vehicles and the boundary is determined elaborately to ensure real-time performance. Then, the field is constructed by three individual fields. One is the kinematic field, which is built based the safe-distance model to measure the colliding risk of both moving or no-moving objects accurately. Another is the road field that reflects the lane-marker constraint. The last is the efficiency field, which is introduced creatively to improve efficiency. Furthermore, the learning algorithm is adopted to learn the long-term optimal state-action sequence in the safety field. Finally, the simulations are conducted in Prescan platform to validate the feasibility of the improved safety field in complex scenarios. The results show that the proposed decision algorithm can always drive autonomous vehicle to the state with a long-term optimal payoff and can improve the overall performance compared to the existing pure safety field and the interaction-aware method.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anand Natarajan

Abstract. Present verification of the fatigue life margins on wind turbine structures utilizes damage equivalent load (DEL) computations over limited time duration. In this article, a procedure to determine long term fatigue damage and remaining life is presented as a combination of stochastic extrapolation of the 10-minute DEL to determine its probability of exceedance and through computationally fast synthesis of DELs using level-crossings of a Gaussian process. Both the synthesis of DELs and long-term stochastic extrapolation are validated using measured loads from a wind farm. The extrapolation for the blade root flap and tower base fore-aft damage equivalent moment is presented using a three-parameter Weibull distribution, whereby the long term damage equivalent load levels are forecast for both simulated and measured values. The damage equivalent load magnitude at a selected target probability of exceedance provides an indicator of the integrity of the structure for the next year. The extrapolated damage equivalent load over a year is validated using measured multi-year damage equivalent loads from a turbine in the Lillgrund wind farm, which is subject to wakes. The simulation of damage equivalent loads using the method of level crossings of a Gaussian process is shown to be able to reconstruct the damage equivalent load for both blade root and tower base moments. The prediction of the tower base fore-aft DEL is demonstrated to be feasible when using the Vanmarcke correction for very-narrow band processes. The combined method of fast damage equivalent load computations and stochastic extrapolation to the next year, allows a quick and accurate forecasting of structural integrity of operational wind turbines.


IEEE Access ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Ronny Hug ◽  
Stefan Becker ◽  
Wolfgang Hubner ◽  
Michael Arens

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document