Reliability assessment of time-dependent systems via quasi-sequential Monte Carlo simulation

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Armando M. Leite da Silva ◽  
Reinaldo A. Gonzalez-Fernandez ◽  
Warlley S. Sales ◽  
Luiz A.F. Manso
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Sequential Monte Carlo ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Time Dependent

scholarly journals Reliability assessment of an isolated hybrid microgrid using Markov modeling and Monte Carlo simulation

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad F. Saleem ◽  
Mohammad AlMuhaini
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Sequential Monte Carlo ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Test System ◽  
Markov Modeling ◽  
Reliability Indices ◽  
Renewable Power

The importance of conducting adequacy assessments of standalone systems with integrated renewable generation sources is growing. In this work, the focus is placed on the reliability assessment of an isolated microgrid operating on renewable energy generated by wind turbines (WTs) and photovoltaic (PV) panels. Batteries for storage were included in the model because of their crucial role in the system’s feasibility. Additional micro-gas turbines (MGTs) served as conventional backup. The sequential Monte Carlo simulation (SMCS) method was used to carry out simulations of the system, which was modeled using Markov matrices. Input data, such as wind speed, solar irradiance, and ambient air temperature, were used to simulate the power outputs of the generators. These historical data were fitted into appropriate distributions to extract corresponding parameters when simulating essential key factors necessary to produce the renewable power generation models. The adequacy model of the MGTs was obtained by employing the two-state reliability model, which was also superimposed with the generation models of WTs, PV panels, and batteries. The IEEE Roy Billinton test system (RBTS) was used for demand modelling. Common reliability indices were computed, and the system availability margins were evaluated.

Reliability Modeling of Wind Farm Considering the Outages of Connection Cables

2013 ◽  
Vol 291-294 ◽  
pp. 461-466
Author(s):  
Guo Bing Qiu ◽  
Wen Xia Liu ◽  
Jian Hua Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Power Output ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Sequential Monte Carlo ◽  
Reliability Model ◽  
Wake Effect ◽  
Reliability Modeling ◽  
Wake Model

Considering the randomness of wind speed and wind direction, the partial wake effect between wind turbines (WTs) in complex terrain was analyzed and a multiple wake model in complex terrain was established. Taking the power output characteristic of WT into consideration, a wind farm reliability model which considered the outages of connection cables was presented. The model is implemented in MATLAB using sequential Monte Carlo simulation and the results show that this model corrects the power output of wind farm, while improving the accuracy of wind farm reliability model.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document